Written by Graeme on Sunday, May 7th, 2023
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Going to probably sleep in a bit Sunday due to fantasy football draft that is gonna go late, plus an early game tomorrow so want to get this out with how crap our e-mail server has been.
We’ve got three games on the go. Devils vs Hurricanes at 3:30pm EST, followed by the Panthers vs Leafs and Kraken vs Stars.
Let’s get right to it. And for F1 fans, I’ll hopefully have some F1 bets for Miami on my Patreon tomorrow morning. Huge week last week with a 6.00 first constructor retirement win, and a Perez win that ranged from 6.50 to 8.50 depending on what people bet.
Great win for the Oilers. I’m glad I didn’t touch that game as like I said – I was feeling too reactive and ready to bail on the Oilers. That was just an ultimate dominant performance from the better team.
Devils vs Hurricanes Game 3 Betting Tips:
Scott: It would be easy to say that with the Devils being down 2-0 and getting outscored 11-2 that this series is all but over. But in the 1st round the Devils were down 2-0 after the first 2 games against the Rangers and were outscored 10-2 and came back to win the series is 7 games.
For the 2nd game in a row the Devils had to pull Schmid. Kotkaniemi scored twice for the Canes in about 2:30 and they went off in the 2nd scoring 4 times. The Devils were able to get more shots on goal in this game but it wasn’t enough.
With the next 2 games in New Jersey they need to pick up a win, they have gone 2-2 in these playoffs at home. But the Canes have looked really good in the 1st 2 games so I’d rather skip.
No Bet
Graeme: You should know my feelings on the Canes in this series just now. Sweating it a fair bit to be honest as I bet quite a bit more than my usual.
Game 2 obviously didn’t change anything from my end.
In saying that, I actually came into this one hoping to bet the Devils. After the way they pulled it off against the Rangers, plus Game 3 is such a crucial game? But man, those odds are gross considering they have been blasted 11-2 over two games.
You have to remember too that Game 3 was a very tight Devils win 2-1 as well. In OT. It wasn’t like they just turned on the style or anything. As I initially thought I could even go with Devils in regulation but yeah that’s not the case based on the previous game 3.
I think a bet on the Devils would be irresponsible, and am going with No Bet.
Panthers vs Leafs Game 3 Betting Tips:
Scott: The Leafs jumped out to a 2-0 lead and looked in control. The Panthers scored to end the 1st. Barkov scored 19 seconds into the 2nd to tie the game
The Leafs were down 3-2 after the 2nd and came out flying in the 3rd but couldn’t get anything past Bobrovsky who has looked great and like the Vezina Trophy winner that he is.
The Leafs are now down 2-0 in the series and play this game and the next in Florida. If they want to have a chance in this series they have to find a way to beat Bobrovsky and clean up their sometimes sloppy play.
On the road in this postseason they have gone 3-0 but all 3 were in overtime.
Leafs win incl overtime
Graeme: Man, I really hate these odds on the Leafs.
I feel they have been unfortunate. I feel they need to step up. But you look at the past two games and it’s like are they going to?
Leafs did manage to win in Tampa all three times which was impressive. Their metrics in the Panthers series are better than most of their performances against Tampa.
I’m going to go with Leafs to Win incl OT. I’d like to back them in regulation, but I feel if it goes to OT the Leafs have a slight edge. Future me would be REALLY ticked off if the Leafs win in OT but I bet in regulation as well. Gotta think of my mental health!
Ontario: 1.76 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.76 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -130 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.76 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/05/07 1:44:38 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Kraken vs Stars Game 3 Betting Tips:
Scott: Pavelski scored again when the Stars beat the Kraken 4-2 and got the series even before heading to Seattle for games 3 and 4.
The Stars were able to hold the Kraken to only 27 shots after they took 44 in game 1.
With the series in Seattle you would think that they would be an advantage for the Kraken but it hasn’t been yet as they have gone 1-2 at home with the win coming in overtime.
Now that the Stars got the series tied I expect them to have the same game plan they did in game 2.
Stars in regulation
Ontario: 2.20 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.20 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +105 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.20 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/05/07 1:44:38 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: Good to see the Stars get the win, and it was in dominant fashion with an insane 2nd period from the Stars. The metrics for that period are nuts.
Now it flips to Seattle. Stars on the road did fine after a poor Game 3.
Kraken were a mixed bag overall in the playoffs vs the Avs.
I’m not happy with the odds on this one. Stars at 1.68 feels really low. Kraken at 2.25 is decent. Like I said I really feel they are a 50/50 type of team. So bet anything over 2.00, it’s an +EV bet.
I knew they’d win games against the Avs the last series but I struggled to pick those correctly. Only backed them in the one I think, and lost it.
I’m leaning them here, but I’m going to pass on this one. The over is what interests me most. I don’t think the Stars have figured them out – despite that last game dominance. Over 5.5.
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.04 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +104 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.04 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2023/05/07 1:44:38 AM EST but are subject to change.)
To WIN moneyline: Carolina
Lean: a Prop on Pavelski, shots or to score, not sure yet
Parlay bait: getting Carolina on the reverse puckline of +1.5 for X1.40 seems worth it.
Looking at the last 10 games or so, I can’t see that New Jersey will be resilient against Carolina in this playoff context. Goals, penalty situations, total shots, conversion rates and specialty teams, Carolina gets the lean.
The Dallas/Seattle and Florida/Toronto games today are after two days off, so energy will be high. They’re tough to call. Toronto seems favored in some stats and style of play, but the passion it takes for Florida to get to the net and score, remains active and unmatched by the Leafs as a team, while a few Leafs buck that trend and are very assertive and boldly creative, just not enough of them yet.
I’m waiting for Toronto to show the kind of leap up in sustained attack we see with the Oilers (regardless of who’s on the team), Seattle, and that winners in the playoffs typically must provide to get to the last two rounds. If the Leafs can charge for 60 minutes, they can take this game.
After this game, Florida and Toronto get 2 days off again, so should put every last bit of effort out today.
My gut is telling me Kraken-Stars will be a diarrhea in goals