Written by Scott on Tuesday, October 10th, 2023
Follow @BetNHL
Finally the NHL season is back and we all were getting a little antsy.
There were so many moves made in the off-season and it will be interesting to see if and how the moves will affect each team.
It’s the first day of action and it’s always tricky to try and predict how teams will do with them having played zero games.
It’s a slow day with only 3 games so that’s a good thing for us to ease our way back into things. The odds for the games today are all lopsided so I won’t have any tips.
Predators vs Lightning Betting Tips:
The Preds went 42-32-8 last season and didn’t make it to the postseason. In the off-season they lost Duchene and Johansen but brought in O’Reilly and Nyquist and added Schenn to their defense.
The Lightning went 46-30-6 and were eliminated in the 1st round by the Maple Leafs. With them being a strong team for a few years now they were forced to move some key players out. Killorn, Maroon, Colton and Elliott are out. They brought in Sheary and Glendening. But when your team has Stamkos, Point, Kucherov, Hedman and Vasilevskiy they are still stacked.
The Lightning are favored here so we would need to take in regulation. I do think with them at home they should win but it’s too early for me. And Vasilevskiy is hurt and will be out for 2 months so they may rally around Johansson but we will have to wait and see.
Blackhawks vs Penguins Betting Tips:
The Hawks went 26-49-7 and clearly didn’t make the playoffs but as a consolation prize the drafted Bedard. They brought in Hall, Perry and Foligno to help him make the transition to NHL hockey.
The Pens went 40-31-11 and didn’t make the playoffs after qualifying for 16 years in a row. They brought in 12 new players and moved out 11 but having Karlsson is going to help them from the backend. Crosby, Malkin and Letang are getting older so if will be interesting to see if they can keep up with the other teams in the strong Metro Division.
The Pens are favored and I do like their chances here. But with Bedard making his NHL debut the Hawks may feed off the excitement and make a game of it.
Kraken vs Knights Betting Tips:
The Kraken went 46-28-8 and made the playoffs in just their 2nd year in the league. They were eliminated in the 2nd round by the Stars but they did take the series to 7 games. They didn’t make any significant moves in the off-season and are counting on Berniers and Tolvanen to keep improving plus if Wright can make the team and live up to his potential it would be a huge help moving forward.
The Knights went 51-22-9 and won their first Stanley Cup. Much like the Kraken, the Knights didn’t add any players and they had to move out some players due to the salary cap. But they still have Eichel, Marchessault and Stone so they can still be a top team. They had the shortest off-season so there may be some rust to start the year.
The Knights are favored so we would need to take them in regulation to get odds worth playing. And with it being the first game it’s a risky play with how much better the Kraken were last year.
Welcome back everyone! Looking forward to what should be a very interesting season! Lots of trades and just had the best Draft seen in many years.
Lean: Full game OVER 6.5: Nash/Tampa
The only thing I’ve heard out of Tampa since Vasilevsky being out is that they’ll be more focused on offense. With a lesser goaltender in, and other teams smelling opportunity against Tampa for a while, goal counts should rise. I’d consider Tampa an “Over” candidate in many games, and Nashville more of a moderate goals for/against force, but the game chemistry has changed now with Tampa. Wouldn’t be surprised if we see something like a 5-3 result. Or if Tampa takes time to successfully adopt their new contingency systems, maybe higher goal counts for a few months? Not touching the win-lose options here.
Not touching the Vegas game. If they hold any kind of banner raising, that OFTEN goes against the home team that night, who then lose. Maybe the other team sees it as an offensive challenge thrown in their face. Seen it so often it hurts. It’s a pattern. And Seattle is a very good team! Not touching that situation.
Not touching the Pens/Hawks game. I think the phenom of Connor Bedard needs to be figured out within the context of his team, and against a Penguins team that can be so incredibly smug, Chicago, not being a top team, this is typically a situation when the Pens lose, because they take the night off. However, it being Game #1, with the Pens having two days off, and Chicago playing Boston tomorrow, Chicago will be drawn towards throwing everything they can at the Pens tonight, and the Pens may be up for this game, at home, where strategic “taking the night off” isn’t as likely. All truly great players elevate others on their team, and Chicago may be full of surprises this year. The Pens usually put up a great game against Edmonton, where another hot shot forward lives. Will Chicago now fit that description too? Fun times. Too many “ifs”. I want to see Bedardski drive the Pens crazy. So, maybe this game is an “OVER” candidate?
Really like the OVER in the TB game for the reasons you describe.
Throwing a sprinkle on Bedard prop bets. First goalscorer, scoring 2+, hat trick, etc. Just for fun.
Still remember Matthews first regular season game. 🤯
Hope everyone had a great off-season.
I´m going with some player props tonight.
Crosby 2 points
Stamkos 2 points
Good luck
Hello from Germany and welcome back everyone! Hopes are high for a good season.
Just one tip for me today; +5,5 team totals for TBL. Thought about it all day long and think without their first goalie they have to score one more goal, than they conced and with the season just at the beginning they should be able to go forward.
Good luck, everyone!
Looking at the early Tampa Bay vs Nashville game.
Few days ago this line was Tampa -170 and with the injury to Vas a stay away at the price. However seeing them now at -155, I’ve talked myself into a play on Tampa. I’m assuming this is public betting and not sharp action moving the line. Tampa has had plenty of time to prepare and adjust to the fact they will be without Vasilevskiy. Tampa had a solid home record last year of 28-8-5. Nashville road record was positive but nothing amazing. Add to that the early season point projections. I also don’t know if Nashville is the best team to take advantage of potential poor goaltending, as I see their biggest weakness to be scoring. While it was just preseason, Tampa starter Johansson had a 3-0-0 record, with a 2.10 GAA and .932 sv%, to give himself some confidence and momentum going into the season. While he could still shit the bed, we’ve seen plenty of goalies get hot and teams ride those performances. A weird start time at home vs an out of conference team, ranked below average, with not much scoring depth, projected to miss the playoffs is a perfect first game matchup for Tampa Bay to get their season started.
Tampa Bay -155.
Looking at potential goal scorers oddly had me focused on Nashville players despite liking Tampa to win this game. Forsberg at +185 to score anytime is the one I like most. Ryan O’Reilly will want to develop chemistry early with Forsberg and seeing Parssinen on the other wing, I don’t believe he’ll cut into the opportunities. Josi is another option but at +285, I don’t see the value there. Long shot plays on Nashville anytime goal scorers for me would be Barrie +600 and Sherwood +450. In Barrie’s case, he is on the top pairing with Josi, and there’s a huge drop off in goals by Nashville defenseman after that. He scored a solid 13 last year compared to Josi’s 18 and you’re getting more than double the value. With Sherwood he’s projected to be a top six forward and the goals have to come from somewhere right? Centered by Glass, who made strides last year, and opposite Nyquist. I don’t believe the pressure will be to feed Nyquist like Reilly may have to feed Forsberg so it could be a more balanced line in terms of production. He’s also going off at a higher value then Nyquist, Parssinen, Glass, and Novak who I would put in the same tier. Once again the main goal scorer here for Nashville that sticks out is Forsberg +185. I like a same game non correlated parlay of Tampa Bay to win and Nashville’s forsberg to score at +425.
Long Shot anytime goal scorers would be
Nashville Sherwood +450
Nashville Barrie +600
though I’m not betting either of them today. Tampa has a more balanced offense of potential goal scorers so I didn’t really spend much time focusing on them here.
Plays are
Tampa -155
Half unit SGP of Tampa Bay to win and Forsberg to score +425
I also took Pit -230 few days ago, but it’s climbed to -245 now, I can’t really recommend it at that price.
Welcome back fans of betnhl. S&G we always appreciate you guys and your awesome insights. Looking forward to a great season of hockey and betting. I’ve been warming up and building my bankroll with WHL (thank you Wenatchee and Prince George, fade and tail respectively) and Europe. So many changes to NHL teams this season that I’m going to lay off sides for a few weeks. However, there will be some great o/u and prop opportunities. Tonight I like under Pens and Hawks at +120 and Karlsson o2.5 SOG +100. GLTA SDB
PS-my bruins are going to suck but it will still be fun
It’s funny I just made a play on Letang over 2.5 SOG at -125 and it was between him and Karlsson at a slightly better price of -110. I debated doing a half unit split between him and Karlsson as opposed to the full unit with Letang but opted against it. Just can’t envision a scenario where at least one of those two doesn’t get to at least 3 shots tonight. Nice job by you getting the even money on Karlsson too. Hoping Bedard goes over his shot total tonight so I can look to play his under total tomorrow vs your Bruins. Seeing how Bedards under shot total is priced at +145 here, would be hard to pass on anything north of +150 on the back to back. Good luck on your plays.