Written by Graeme on Tuesday, October 31st, 2023
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A disappointing night yesterday, with 3 close games that unfortunately didn’t fall our way.
We had the Bruins/Lightning in regulation. Both teams went down by a couple of goals early. They were able to claw it back, but not able to get the job done in regulation.
The most frustrating one was the Flyers. That was a solid underdog pick at 2.65. They had the lead, and then were all over the Hurricanes especially in that third period. They just couldn’t get the puck in the net though, and then the Canes scored a late one to steal it. That’s the joys of betting on hockey.
Quiet night tonight let’s see if anything:
Leafs vs Kings:
Eh. I’d lean Leafs and think the odds are probably right. Kings need to beat some teams of note to have confidence in them. I mean you go by the metrics, there might be some slight reasoning to back them. But the way they concede goals is concerning, especially against this Leafs team. At the odds, over 6.5 isn’t worth it either. This is one where when you start to bring in weighted metrics, Kings don’t look as good.
Canucks vs Predators:
These two played on the 24th with the Canucks winning in Nashville. This is one I’m going to avoid and here’s why – when you go by the base metrics, the Canucks look a decent bet. More goals scored, less goals conceded etc. SCGF & SCGA are in their favour as well.
But when you dive deeper, you can see that all that is likely to turn around. They’re scoring way more than they should, and conceding way less than they should. And it’s the opposite for the Preds when it comes to offense.
I’ve seen spots like this before where it all switches in a game like this, but there’s not enough to gamble on the Preds for that. Pass for me.
Tough October start at 8w-15L. You guys will bounce back in November!
No tips today but tomorrow I´ll give my best tips on how to never get a hangover. Stay tuned.
LA Kings Kempe to score +180. half unit.
Was torn between him and Dubois potentially. Ultimately Kempe tends to shoot more and has a better scoring pedigree. Woll in net for Toronto and he’s been good. So not ideal spot for Kings on road but sometimes that can go out the window. And you also tend to get better prices on those games. The +180 on someone who has scored 35+ the last two seasons seems like fair value. I also liked Matthews to score for Toronto. But he’s going off at -120 which is quite pricey. You could same game parlay matthews and kempe for about +410. But i’ll just stick with Kempe for today.
Early plays for Wednesday November 1
I wanted to post these here for the time being because the lines could potentially move based on information that comes out between now and when Graeme does his write ups. Of course it could continue to move in the other direction as well especially the play on Calgary which Id have to think no one is looking to back with their hard earned cash. However my handicap is based on getting them at plus money so any movement away from that decreases the value and makes it a no play. If the value is still good and my opinion on the handicap remains when todays comment section opens up I’ll just repost my plays there then.
Calgary +114 half unit
This one is a gamble but it’s based on the potential that Wedgewood may get the start for Dallas. This is the first game of a back to back for Dallas. And a pretty brutal upcoming schedule for them as well. They also play Edmonton on the road on Thursday. Follow that up Saturday at Vancouver, and Monday home for Boston before finally getting some time off to face Columbus albeit having to go on the road again.
It would make more sense to start Wedgewood here vs a struggling, underachieving, lackluster offense like Calgary rather than vs Edmonton. IF Wedgewood gets announced, there can be some potential sharp buyback on Calgary so I want to get at it early. Though the public will definitely not be taking Calgary regardless of goalie, my plan is to get down a half unit now at the +114, and IF money continues to pour in on Dallas AND Wedgewood does indeed get announced to start this game, put another half unit down on the Ugly, Terrible, No Good Calgary Flames.
While the Flames expected goals were horribly low vs Edmonton, the games prior they weren’t that bad. Both 5 on 5 and on the Power Play they are getting quality numbers in Expected Goals. While I agree that stat alone doesn’t always mean much, if they can get those same chances against a below average goalie, that might be all the difference they need to get some of those into the back of the net. Assuming Markstrom starts for the Flames, he’s had 4 quality starts and has at least performed better than his 1-5-1 record indicates.
If Oettinger does indeed start for Dallas I’m only on the hook for the half unit which I personally am Ok with. And based on Dallas look ahead there could be a slight chance of them looking ahead of the opponent in front of them. I was listening to a podcast and one of the sharps said something interesting. It was in regards to football but can also pertain to other sports as well. Something to the effect of there’s two scenarios where you look to play the underdog. One is when they are undervalued, and the other is when the favorite is unmotivated. I think that can potentially pertain to this game here.
Colorado Devon Toews over .5 power play points +370. half unit.
This is relying on Makar and or Byram not playing. But more specifically Makar. Makar hit the boards hard and left the game vs Buffalo in the 2nd period. He did come back for the third period surprisingly. But was held out of practice Tuesday and listed currently as game time decision. Avs don’t play again until Saturday at Vegas. So seeing them give Makar off until then would be wise on their part.
Early reports have Prosvetov the likely starting goalie for the Avs. This would be his first start this season as he’s only made one relief appearance stopping five shots. If they’re giving Georgiev a week off, who’s started every game so far this year , it wouldn’t be a shock if they sat Makar out as well. If Makar doesn’t play, his power play minutes could go to Toews. Slight concern those minutes could go to Byram, but he also didn’t practice and is officially a game time decision.
Colorado has been shut out two straight and now returns home. I expect something to change and if Toews can get minutes on that top power play unit the +370 odds to record a PP Point could have some value. This carries some risk though and is based solely on Makar not playing. If he suits up, this goes from a decent bet with some added value at the price, to basically dead in the water.
I’ll also mention Anaheim +105
I haven’t placed this bet, but am monitoring it. Plus money would be the only way I would take Anaheim otherwise it’s a stay away. This opened with Anaheim as a home underdog at -102 and they continue to drop. Two things may give potential value on the Ducks. The first is The Ducks just swept a four game road trip, but not in convincing fashion. Three games by one goal, two requiring OT will have most of the public unimpressed and claiming fluke. Also the win streak makes a bad team like the Ducks “DUE” for a loss. The second is Arizona last game was a win over Chicago by an 8-1 score line. at his will be fresh in peoples minds. Most people will compare Chicago to Anaheim as like teams and will probably think Arizona will do the same vs a Duck team due for a loss.
Though sometimes when a road team over achieves and then returns home, they can regress or hit a flat spot. That may not be the case here though. The Ducks lost 5 straight vs some tough opponents to start the season. They also played at Arizona recently and it was a tight 2-1 loss. I haven’t dived into the actual metrics yet to see if the score reflects the actual game flow though. The Ducks are a team with a lot of youth, who after a tough start are finally seeing some results and should be eager to keep the wins coming for as long as they can. After tonight their next game isn’t until Sunday vs Vegas, and that’s where we may see a flat spot and some regression.
Two things I’m worried about though. One is I may not be properly valuing this Arizona team. 2nd, Dostal came into the last game vs the Penguins in relief for Gibson who was injured. He probably expected to have the night off and then faced 35 shots over two periods to hold on for a hard fought win. So if he goes again tonight he might have an energy drain and be flat vs a team that just put up an 8 spot is my worry.
I’ll look for the Ducks line to potentially climb higher in order for me to buy in on them probably at a half unit at most. I’m not eager to bet them currently and if it stays at the +105 range or worse it’s a stay away for me even if there is minimal value on The Ducks at home at that price.
The plays are admittedly ugly and may backfire. But I hope I got across my logic on the bets being made and posted them as early as possible so if anyone happens to agree they may get the best value possible.