Written by Graeme on Wednesday, November 1st, 2023
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No tips yesterday.
The Leafs were given a good ol fashioned thumping at home. That was a good win for the Kings, and it will help balance out the weighted metrics more. Although in saying that, from what I saw in between handing out candy and fireball jello shots, it was just a piss-poor performance from the Leafs. Marner is a ghost of himself at the moment.
The switchover didn’t happen last night, as the Canucks cleaned the Preds clocks in impressive fashion. Will be interesting as we get more data on them to see how things go.
A chill 4 game night which is nice as work wise, the first and last day of the months are my busiest time. Always sheer hell for me when either land on a Saturday.
Let’s get to it:
Flyers vs Sabres:
The Flyers come in on a bad run with two home losses. They were unfortunate against the Canes, and they Ersson’d the Ducks game so not as bad as it seems.
Buffalo just blanked out the Avs in a big surprise.
Books have this as a coinflip. I’m going into this wanting to back the Flyers (goalie dependent). Let’s see the metrics. Phillys defensive work is good. Their goals conceded metrics are poor but I mean that’s the team metrics. Harts are solid.
Buffalo early in the season Comrie looks to be the difference maker. Sample size and all that. But don’t have to worry about him for a bit.
I’m good with Flyers win incl OT/SO if Hart in net and I wouldn’t object to an in-regulation play either.
Ontario: 1.91 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.91 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -105 Odds at MyBookie.
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/11/01 8:22:00 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Flames vs Stars:
Calgary come stumbling into this game. Their metrics aren’t too shabby to be honest. They are creating the chances and have a very good xG. They’re just unable to convert.
Better Corsi & Fenwick than the Stars.
If Oettinger is in net I’d lean the Stars here. I’m just not a fan of that price, and just in general hockey trends, this run for the Flames has to end at some point. They’re still creating the chances and the goals have to start coming. There’s not enough on the price for me to advise the Stars here.
Avs vs Blues:
I mean the Avs are just currently unbackable. Two shutouts in a row. Now they return home and you’d love to see them turn it around. Would have to be the handicap. In my head, it does seem like a fine play. But I remember that issue with the Avs last season as well.
The metrics all generally point to the Avs covering the handicap. But I can’t back a team whose offense is stone cold.
Ducks vs Coyotes:
Ducks coming off some solid performances and results. Now host the free scoring Coyotes.
My head says the over comes in here, but when I look at the metrics it doesn’t look that way at all. The GA of both teams, is below 3. Ducks xG and Coyotes xGA not good. SCGA/60 of both very low. Yep that’s a fairly easy pass.
Flyers regulation
Ducks OT/SO
The best way to avoid a hangover is to carry on drinking.
I had a play a posted early today in yesterday’s column on the Flames +114 tied into potentially Wedgewood starting for Dallas. But to update I’m seeing Oettinger is already confirmed to start for the Stars. I’m still on the Flames for the half unit, because I think this could still be a decent spot for the Flames. But I like the pick a lot less and wouldn’t advise it to anyone else.
Also to update I’m seeing Hart starting for Philly vs Luukkonen for Buffalo. Luukkonen had a solid start vs Colorado last game out. But could be a bit of fools gold. He made some nice saves, but his job was really easy. Saw everything thrown his way, with no rebounds or crashing the net. My first lean would be the Over but already juiced to -130 and not as eager to lay that if Hart gives Philly another good game.
To WIN moneyline: Dallas
WIN reverse puckline: Anaheim at +2.5
Expanded betting options include some shockingly good options, and I think Anaheim probably wins tonight, but the reverse puckline looks even more certain. Anaheim has played great teams and won, is at home, on a winning streak and also goes into 3 days off, before another trio of games at home, so they should be gung-ho to blitz tonight, and their interviews say they’re very eager to keep their winning streak growing. Good for them. They’re in a Tony Robbins situation: self-made.
Arizona has won against very weak teams like St. Louis and Chicago.
Dallas is playing very well, Jake the Brick Wall is in net tonight. Dallas plays Edmonton tomorrow and then to Vancouver after a day off, against a Canucks team playing considerably better than the Oilers and Flames. So tonight’s game will be circled by Dallas as the one to focus on winning for sure, and then they’ll try to blitz the Oilers nets before going to the coast. Flames are extremely weak on offense (third worst in the entire NHL). Dallas is adequate on offense and very strong on defense. Flames give a very high number/rate of turnovers, so if Dallas, who had yesterday off, just skates, they’ll be rewarded with the puck most of the time.
Not touching the Colorado game. The Avs have been very unpredictable for years, injuries or not, so like the Leafs, I rarely consider betting on their games.
So aside from the two plays I posted yesterday which were
Calgary +114 half unit
Devon Toews over .5 power play points +360. half unit
Both were dependent on something and it looks like both may fall flat in that regard. The Calgary play I anticipated Wedgewood starting for Dallas. He’s not. Oettinger is.
The Toews I anticipated Makar might sit out which would potentially bump Toews into his power play minutes. I still haven’t heard an update on Makar besides listed as a game time decision. But they are still offering props on Makar so there’s a chance he’ll play, which would almost kill the Toews prop for me.
I still want to take Anaheim but something is keeping me off it and I’m not sure why. Instead I’ll go with a two team parlay of
Colorado OVER 2.5 team total goals (-350)
and
Calgary OVER 1.5 team total goals (-375)
these combined will payout at -161. Half unit.
Didn’t have time to look into goal scorers. And tomorrow has a much bigger slate of games which depending on time may make it difficult to narrow in on one then too.