Written by Graeme on Friday, November 10th, 2023
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A 2-0 night, although in hindsight, I’m not happy with one of the betting tips I made.
That one was the Senators vs Canucks over. While that won, I felt it was quite fortunate to come in. I don’t think I factored in the Sens on a back to back as much as I should have – which is silly as back to backs have een a big factor for me this season.
It’s common for a team to fizzle out on that 2nd leg of a B2B. It doesn’t mean they just give up during the game or collapse with exhaustion – just that extra game time can wear on a team, and their play becomes that much more sloppy, or their finishing becomes that less clinical etc. It can also really affect the tempo of the game.
Thankfully, the Canucks piled on the goals for us. But not one I am too happy with in retrospect.
Bruins got the solid win for the 2-0 night. And oh man how about those Edmonton Oilers? I’m not sure who I get more joy out of more at the moment – the Oilers or the Leafs. Two teams with generational players and just absolute dumpster fires.
Six-pack today. No tips, just write-ups.
Leafs vs Flames:
I’m really quite fine not betting anything involving the Leafs for the forseeable future. Going to be an interesting game, with the Flames starting to produce. Preds on paper looked a tough game for them to score but they were able to do so.
If they’re able to continue to do so, this could be a banger of a game. It’s barely over 6.5 though and a skip for me as it’s based on a lot of “hope”. The data isn’t quite there yet. Then you have the Leafs xGF/60 of 2.94 last 10, and Flames 2.82 xGA/60. SCG stats don’t match up. Nothing I like enough to play here.
Panthers vs Hurricanes:
Panthers offense need to keep it up so I can keep gaining confidence in them. This is an obscenely close game by the data. No play. I might chuck something on it to go to OT actually. Metrics generally point that way to where it may be a rare valuable OT play. 4.20 for that is a nice price. I just never like advising OT plays as they are such high variables.
Sabres vs Wild:
Wild on a B2B after a disappointing performance against the Rangers. Buffalo are about 1.83 and looking at the data, that seems right on the money. Not seeing value there although if you factor in Minnesota on a B2B, it might give Buffalo enough of an edge.
I saw someone mention Wild on the road yesterday so I looked into the metrics for that but not seeing enough of a difference to where you’d want to back against them when they are away. On top of that, Buffalos home metrics are pretty piis poor. No play.
Devils vs Capitals:
Devils coming in off that Avs loss. Capitals – I mean hell you look at their last 6 results and not too shabby. They’re getting the points. Not a team I’m interested in backing – but a team we may have to be wary off.
These two played on the 25th and the Caps ran out 6-4 winners.
Looking at the metrics – I mean the Devils should score goals but by god they are conceding a lot. And we saw Washington able to take their chances against them.
I do think Devils run out winners here in regulation.But the combination of the defensive metrics, and the result just a couple of weeks ago puts me off enough to pass.
Ducks vs Flyers:
Flyers have a lot of concerns at the moment. Their goaltending situation is obvious, but now their offense has completely disappeared the last two games.
Anaheim have generally been playing well and when these two met on the 28th, the Ducks won 7-4. That was one where I would have taken the Flyers except luckily passed due to Ersson being in net and well you saw the result.
As for this matchup? Flyers offensive metrics are still slightly better than Ducks but it’s not a large margin. Flyers their defense continues to play well it’s the goaltending that is letting them down.
I’m a bit concerned about the Flyers camp and the way they reacted to the Sharks loss. From what I’ve seen it’s basically “we were the better team, we were unlucky, blame special teams”.
Hart is back tonight and confirmed so I’ll pass on this one. If it was anyone else I’d take Ducks here. It still won’t surprise me if Ducks get the W.
Knights vs Sharks:
This one is a no play right off the bat. Knights -1.5 is 1.54. Insane. When you look at their xGF and SCGF stats – man, not a chance.
Sharks are 5.25 odds ha. I tell you right now – in hockey if you see that sort of thing, you bet it. Full stop. Anything above 4.00 for a team win incl OT/SO falls into the laws of variance and it’s an +EV play. Do you expect to win? Hell no. But mathematically, you play it.
Not much confidence on todays plays but I do consider them to have value to me at the prices they are going at. This is probably the third day in a row where nothing has really jumped out so for me personally just playing the games and letting some of the stats and teams sort themselves out for potential value down the road.
Florida +120 half unit.
I just feel like the price has gotten too good on Florida at home. Wouldn’t shock me if they lost and wouldn’t shock me if they won.
Buffalo -115 half unit.
I keep expecting Gustavsson to turn it around off the year he had last year. But to start the season he’s been Jack Campbell/ Last Year Merzlikins level awful. This could be the game he goes out and steals one, but for now I have to play against him in the spot.
Washington +165. Less than half unit play
Washington could sneak up and take this game if they can keep it 5 on 5. Devils have been heavily driven by their power play. Problem is Washington might not be set up to take advantage of the Devils struggles goaltending and their injuries.
I’ll probably also do another two team parlay on team total goals but haven’t landed on the two teams just yet.
To WIN reverse puckline of +1.5: The Mighty Ducks
Strong lean: Win moneyline: The Mighty Ducks
Calgary/Toronto…… Calgary will put up a strong focused fight but what ARE “The Leafs”? I will consult the Runes, Tarot cards, Oracle at Delphi and the I-Ching for insights, but not bet it. I don’t know what the Sabres are these days yet, so while they’re still figuring out their season start, I’m off that. New Jersey is just off a 4-game road trip, Jack Hughes is out, and who cares about playing Washington, so it could be a trap game.
Vegas/San Jose breaks the 80/20 rule and though Vegas SHOULD win, the odds suck and I’m not stretching for puckline options. San Jose is a team full of hyper-agitated grinning players right now, and Vegas will have to come out very motivated or they lose this. Not on my dime. It’s only early November.
Edmonton doesn’t play today but may be burning as much energy today as yesterday. That hopeless situation will boil over soon.
Oh yeah I meant to mention the Ducks game too. I believe this is the first -500 line of the year, i’ll have to double check. It’s only went up since, I’m seeing as high as -550 at times. Going to OT/SO is also +500. So there are many ways to attack the Sharks including +2.5 if you’re interested purely in the value aspect of a line getting too high.
Meant to say there’s super high value in the Sharks game. Accidentally confused it with ur actual play on the ducks. Couldn’t edit and correct the typo