Written by Scott on Tuesday, November 21st, 2023
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There was no games yesterday.
On Monday there was 7 games we had one tip and it was a win. We had the Kings to win against the Coyotes and they did 4-1.
I am always nervous to tip games with the Preds involved and there was yet another example on Monday when they scored twice in 16 seconds with less than a minute left to beat the Avs 4-3.
Wanted to take the Bruins but talked myself out of it and that was a good thing as the Lightning won 5-4 in OT, the Rangers had their 4 game win streak snapped when the Stars won 6-3 and McDavid scored twice but the Oilers still lost to the Panthers 5-3.
And now we go from zero games yesterday to 14 games tonight and then Thursday again has zero games. The American Thanksgiving is messing up the schedule. Even though there are a bunch of games I’m still not seeing that many options to tip and I’m not going to force any as that’s not smart.
Blackhawks vs Jackets Betting Tips:
Either team has given us a reason to back them.
The Hawks have most 4 in a row and the Jackets have lost their last 9.
It’s an easy pass for me here. As much as I want the Hawks to have success it’s tough as I know we have some great young pieces but we aren’t ready yet so another down year will give us time to stock the prospects and allow Bedard and others to get better.
Devils vs Red Wings Betting Tips:
The Devils got Hughes back in their last game and he got a goal and an assist in the loss. The Wings are on a 2 game losing skid.
The Devils are ranked 6th in GPG and the Wings 7th. For GAPG the Devils are 29th and the Wings 20th.
They played each other once and that was on opening night where the Devils won 4-3.
The Wings are starting Lyon who has only 1 game played this season and it was a loss. With that being said I think the Devils have the advantage.
But we would have to take them to win in regulation. Sure they got Hughes back but Meier is now out.
With both teams ranked in the top 10 in GPG let’s go with the over
Over 6.5 incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -135 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/11/21 6:24:31 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Bruins vs Panthers Betting Tips:
This should be a good game. The Bruins are in 1st in the Atlantic and the Panthers have gone 8-2 over their last 10 and find themselves in 2nd.
The Bruins are coming off of that overtime loss against the Lightning. The Panthers come in after winning their last game against the Oilers.
The Bruins are 11th in GPG, the Panthers 17th. For shots in goal the Bruins are 10th, the Panthers 5th. For goals allowed the Bruins are 1st the Panthers 9th and SOGA the Bruins 21st the Panthers 5th.
The odds for this game are fairly even and I can see why. I could make a case for either team and go with it. When that’s the case it’s best to just avoid.
Jets vs Lightning Betting Tips:
A couple win streaks in this game with the Jets on a 3 game and the Lightning 2.
Both teams are in the top 10 in goals per game, the Jets are 5th and the Bolts 9th. Defensively the Jets are better ranking 14th in GAPG and 2nd SOGA while the Lightning are 27th and 24th.
On the road the Jets have gone 4-2-1 and at home Tampa has gone 6-2-2.
I would lean towards a Lightning win but with the Jets also on a win streak I’m skipping.
Oilers vs Hurricanes Betting Tips:
I’m staying away from any games involving the Oilers
Rangers vs Penguins Betting Tips:
The Rangers are having a great season so far. They are 12-3-1 and just had their 4 game win streak stopped. They were also on an 11 game streak of getting at least a point.
The Penguins are 6-2 in November and will have momentum on their side after shutting out the Knights in their last game.
This should be a good game and one that could go either way.
Sabres vs Capitals Betting Tips:
The Sabres have gone 5-4-1 over their last 10 games. They are 22nd in goals and 16th in goals allowed.
The Caps have won their last 4 games and are 8-1-1 over last 10. Even with their recent success the Caps are still ranked 31st in goals and 6th in goals allowed.
The Caps home record of 6-3-1 is better than the Sabres road record of 4-4-1.
If the Caps could get their goals per game up then they would be an easier team to back but when they are 2nd to last in the league in that department its hard to have faith in them.
Flyers vs Islanders Betting Tips:
The Flyers bring a 5 game win streak into this game and among those 5 were wins against the Knights, Canes and Kings. So it hasn’t been all bottom feeders.
The Isles won their last game to stop their losing skid at 7 games.
On the road the Flyers have gone 5-3-1 and at home the Isles 3-3-3. The Flyers are ranked better than the Isles in goals, shots on goal, goals allowed and shots on goal allowed.
Flyers incl OT/SO
Ontario: 2.30 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 2.32 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +132 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.32 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2023/11/21 6:24:31 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Flames vs Predators Betting Tips:
I find both teams hard to predict.
The Flames have had a rough year and aren’t getting the numbers they wanted from Huberdeau. And as mentioned plenty of times I’m not a fan of tipping game with the Preds involved.
Blues vs Coyotes Betting Tips:
It’s the Centrals 4th vs 5th here
The 4th place Blues have gone 9-7-1 and are allowing 2.71 in both GPG and GAPG. The Coyotes have gone 8-8-2 and are 19th in GPG and 15th in GAPG
These teams have played each other twice with both teams winning once.
I would like to think that the Blues would win this one but their road record of 3-5-1 isn’t as good as the Coyotes home record of 4-3. I personally can’t back the Coyotes but for some reason they are favored here.
Knights vs Stars Betting Tips:
Battle of 1st place teams here when the Pacific leading Knights are in Dallas to take on the Centrals top team the Stars.
This should be a fun game to watch.
The Stars score more but the Knights allow less. Even looking at their records the Knights have gone 5-3-1 on the road and the Stars 5-3 at home.
They have played once this year and the Knights won that one 3-2 in a shootout.
These teams matchup well.
The Knights had basically a perfect October winning all games played but one and that went to a shootout so they still got points. Over their last 10 though they haven’t been near as good going 5-4-1. They are capable of going back on a run but the Stars are also a good team as their 1st place standing will show us.
Canucks vs Avalanche Betting Tips:
The Canucks have gone 13-5-2 and are in 2nd place in the Pacific. The Avalanche have gone 11-6-0 and are in 2nd place in the Central.
In a battle of 2nd place teams this should be a good one.
In goals per game the Canucks are in 1st and the Avs are in 3rd. In goals allowed the Canucks are in 2nd and the Avs are 13th.
At home the Avalanche have gone 5-2 and on the road the Canucks have gone 6-4.
As you can see from the numbers listed above it’s hard to try and find am edge for either team. When it’s like that is better to just avoid the game.
Canadiens vs Ducks Betting Tips:
Another game the has two team who haven’t given us any reason to have faith in them.
The Habs have lost their last 4 and the Ducks have dropped their last 3.
Both are tied for 23rd in GPG and the Habs are 26th in goals allowed and the Ducks 12th.
Sharks vs Kraken Betting Tips:
I can’t tip the Sharks they are just a bad team.
The Kraken are the heavy favorites here but they haven’t been very good. They are 4-3-3 over last 10 and 26th in GPG and 24th in GAPG.
It’s an easy pass for me.
Looking at full game OVERs for the Jersey/Detroit and Jets/Atmospheric Discharge games. Over what, I haven’t decided.
I don’t know if I can remember thinking that any start of a season was as in full morbid disarray as this season is, for so many teams. Just about dead in the water: Oilers, Flames, Sabres, Sharks, Jackets, Penguins, Wild.
Other teams have hope: not doing well, but show they’re motivated and have some exciting talent: Chicago, Ottawa, Montreal, Seattle, New Jersey (what’s up with them?).
Teams that may have turned some major kind of corner: Flames (at slow speed), Caps (relying purely on defense), Canucks (wow!), and at some very distant point in the future reliant on error-prone atomic clocks at the centre of the Milky Way: the Oilers. Prediction: Oilers do not make player trades to improve the team, at any level nearing what’s needed, and the team remains a talent waster, talent loser and long-term fade. Corporate sloth has assured they’re done.
Pittsburgh-104
I don’t think Pittsburgh should be home underdogs here. Goals For per Game is nearly identical, and while Rangers have one of the lowest GA/G, Penguins are also top 10 as well.
The X Factor for the Rangers is their 2nd best Power Play unit. While The Penguins commit more penalties then they draw, they still average a relatively low 7.4 PIM/G. Their PK is also 9th at about 85%. This could lead to more importance in the 5 on 5 metrics.
When it comes to the 5 on 5 metrics, Pittsburgh beats the Rangers in Shooting% and Save%. Penguins also have positive Corsi and Fenwick stats. Their 41.6 XGF is highest in the league, and their actual goals for match up well at 43. Their Scoring Chances For and High Danger For percentages are also positive. To me, the value is on the home dog Penguins.
Quick has been listed as the likely starter for the Rangers, which has me even more confident in the Penguins. In his three starts so far in the month of November, he’s conceded 3 or more goals in each with sub 90 save percentages in all as well.
Winnipeg/Tampa Bay Over 6.5 -120 half unit
Two teams in the top 8 in GF/G. Tampa Bay 28th in GA/G. Tampa Bay’s 4th best Power Play vs the Jets 26th ranked PK. Hellebuyck with a down year so far to start the season. Has held teams to 2 or fewer goals in just 5 of his 13 starts. The Five teams were St. Louis(twice), Edmonton, Detroit, and most recently Buffalo. Buffalo’s had a down year offensively and missing Tage Thompson. St. Louis is 26th in GF/G. Edmonton put up 40 shots and Detroit was able to register 36. A similar output from Tampa and I like the chances of the over.
For Tampa, Johansson is a below average goaltender and the sample size has gotten big enough. He’s given up 3 or more goals in 13 of his 16 starts. Just once since his back to back shutouts which he’s a long way removed from now back at the end of October. One of those shutouts being against the Sharks. His most recent game to feature less than two goals conceded was vs Chicago. They took a whopping 14 shots the entire game. Johansson still conceded 2. Winnipeg is averaging nearly 32 shots per game. And a shooting percentage tied for third with Tampa Bay at 11.7 %.
Vancouver +145. half unit.
This one will probably backfire. My line is so far off from what this game has opened and it’s only continued to climb towards money on the Avs. So I’m clearly missing something. Even with home ice and vig taken out, they are rating the Avs about 6.5 percent better than Vancouver. Georgiev has struggled Save Percentage wise for a while now. It looked like it may have been corrected with two decent games vs the Kraken and Ducks. But he regressed back in his two most recent games vs the Stars and Preds. Yes the Preds game is probably a bit wonky, with the two goals in the final minute. That won’t happen often and if the Avs were able to close them out the final 60 seconds, Georgiev’s recent results are looking better. So maybe I’m judging him too harshly there. Vancouver has the highest GF/G in the league at 4.11, to go along with their league high 13.9 Shooting percent. So this will be a good test for Georgiev and the Avs defense. The Avs could easily win this game, but in my opinion the line shouldn’t be as high as it currently is.
I wanted a play on Washington and actually took it when the line opened a few days ago. But at that time I was expecting a Lindgren vs Levi matchup. I think Washington is going to role out Kuemper who I have less confidence in though. I didn’t think the opening line was giving the Caps enough respect vs a struggling Buffalo team with Tage Thompson out. However with the Caps not starting Lindgren and their struggles to score, I am less a fan of this play and can’t advise it.