Written by Scott on Saturday, December 2nd, 2023
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There were 2 games yesterday.
The Sharks scored 6 goals on 18 shots and beat the Devils 6-3 for their first road win of the season. The Devils outshot them 47-18 but they came up short.
The Jackets beat the Senators 4-2 which was the 3rd straight loss for the Sens. Laine scored for the 2nd game in a row and hopefully he can turn things around.
For tonight we have a lucky 13 games.
Lightning vs Stars Betting Tips:
The Lightning lost their last game against the Penguins when Jarry scored a rare goalie goal. The Stars lost their last one vs the Flames 4-3 in overtime.
Over last 10 the Lightning are 4-5-1, the Stars are 6-2-2.
The Lightning have lost their last 3 games and are 10-9-5 this season. On the road they are 4-6-2.
The Stars are in 2nd in the Central but only 2 points behind the Avalanche and have played one fewer game.
The home team Stars “should” win this game but they haven’t been that good in Dallas going 5-4-1 and the Bolts have gone 4-6-2 away from Tampa Bay.
Blackhawks vs Jets Betting Tips:
The Hawks are 3-7 over last 10. They are 30th in both GPG and shots per game, 31st in GAPG and 27th in SOGA.
The Jets have dropped their last 3 games but are still in 3rd in the Central. They are 14th in goals and shots per game and 9th in goals allowed. They are ranked 5th in shots on goal allowed.
Would need to take the Jets -1.5 but with them on a 3 game skid I can’t.
Rangers vs Predators Betting Tips:
The Rangers are leading the Metro and are only one point behind the Knights overall with three fewer games played. They are 8-3 over last 10 and are playing well defensively ranking 3rd in GAPG and 10th in SOGA.
Preds are 6-4 over last 10 and are in 6th in the Central. The are middle of the pack in most all stats ranking 15th in GPG, 17th in shots, 18th in GAPG and 14th in SOGA.
On the road the Rangers have been great going 9-2-1. The Rangers will be looking for some revenge after they lost to the Preds 4-1 on October 19th.
Rangers incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.75 Odds at Sports Interaction
Rest of Canada: 1.75 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -134 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/12/02 9:12:30 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Islanders vs Panthers Betting Tips:
Not a fan of the Isles this season. I find them a tricky team to try and predict. The Panthers are very similar in that they can have great games but follow that up with some garbage.
I’ll happily skip this one.
Wings vs Canadiens Betting Tips:
The Wings are without Larkin so that’s a huge blow to them. They are in 4th in the Atlantic.
The Habs are the Habs and not exactly a team that gives me any confidence.
On the road the Wings are 4-4-1 and in Montreal the Canadiens are 5-7.
Would like to say the Wings win but without their best player and on the road it’s a pass for me.
Bruins vs Leafs Betting Tips:
The Bruins are in 1st in the Atlantic with 33 points and the Leafs are 5th with 27.
These teams are fairly close as far as stats go. For GPG the Bruins are 10th with 3.32 and the Leafs 12th with 3.29, the Bruins are 13th in shots the Leafs 11th. For shots allowed per game the Bruins are 23rd and the Leafs 26th but one big difference is the GAPG with the Bruins 5th at 2.50 and the Leafs 19th with 3.29.
Based on the records for where they are playing it’s also close with the Bruins 7-3-2 on the road and the Leafs 7-4-0 in Toronto.
One thing I see is the amount of overtime games the Leafs have had. 4 of their last 5 games needed extra time and 7 last month total. They are lacking that killer instinct where they get a lead and let off the gas.
The odds are coin flip and I have to skip but will be a fun watch.
Kraken vs Senators Betting Tips:
The Kraken on a 3 game skid, the Sens played yesterday and lost 4-2 vs the Blue Jackets.
The Kraken are 8-10-6 this season and the Sens are 8-10-0.
I’m skipping. It’s hard to tell who wins when 1 team has played 6 more games than the other.
Sabres vs Hurricanes Betting Tips:
The Sabres aren’t having a good season. They are 10-11-2 and can’t find any consistency scoring which was one of their strong points from last season.
The Canes have had mixed results but statistically speaking they are doing well ranking 1st in shots on goal and shots on goal allowed. They are also ranked 8th in GPG. If they can continue shooting as much as they have its only a matter of time until they go in.
Sabres on the road are 5-6-2 and at home the Canes are 7-2-1.
Canes in regulation
Ontario: 1.71 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 1.71 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -155 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.71 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/12/02 9:12:30 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Flyers vs Penguins Betting Tips:
Big game here it’s The Battle of Pennsylvania.
Either team has shown anything to me to back them. The Flyers are in 5th in the Metro and the Pens are 7th. Last 10 the Flyers are 6-3-1 and the Pens 5-4-1. On the road Philly has gone 6-4-1 and at home the Pens are 5-6-0
The last 4 games between these teams haven’t been super high scoring with the last 4 hitting 6 total goals or lower.
These teams play each other again on Monday so might be best to just watch and see how this game goes.
Blues vs Coyotes Betting Tips:
It’s the Centrals 4th place Blues vs the 5th place Coyotes.
The Blues are 6-4 over last 10 and are just over. 500 on the season going 12-9-1. The Coyotes have won their last 3, are 5-4-1 last 10 and 11-9-2 this season.
Arizona is statistically better in GPG and GAPG and are 6-4 at home.
But I’m not seeing anything I like enough to make a tip here.
Capitals vs Knights Betting Tips:
The Caps are 7-2-1 over last 10 and in 3rd in the Metro. It’s crazy to see Ovechkin not putting up the numbers yet they are still doing pretty good. He had 2 assists I’m his last game but the 4 before that he had 0.
The Knights are 4-3-3 over 10 and in 1st in the Pacific. They have had 8 games need extra time this season which is going to tire a team out. Especially one who just had a long playoff run on their way to the cup.
We need to take them in regulation and, as mentioned, they go to overtime too much for me to take here.
Avalanche vs Ducks Betting Tips:
The Avs continue to play well. They went 6-2 in October and 9-5 in November. They are in 1st in the Central and rank 3rd in GPG and 9th in GAPG.
The Ducks are really struggling losing their last 8 games and are 28th overall.
I obviously like the Avs chances here. On the road they have gone a decent 7-4-1 but against a Ducks team who are having some big problems I’m not to worried.
The odds make this a tough game to tip with the Avs heavily favored.
Canucks vs Flames Betting Tips:
Canucks are 5-5 over last 10 and brought in Zadorov to strengthen their defense.
The Flames are 6-3-1 last 10 and are 10-10-3 overall this season.
On the road the Canucks are 7-6 and at home the Flames are 5-3-1.
The Canucks are scoring well this season ranking 2nd in GPG and defending too ranking 6th in GAPG. The Flames are allowing more than they score but rank 8th in both shots on goal and shots on goal allowed.
With the Canucks playing .500 over last 10 and the Flames having an inconsistent season I’m passing on this game.
Florida -172 half unit
My Power Ranking is pretty high on Florida so personally I find value in them at home here. Still trying to figure what the Islanders ultimately are. Average, Below Average, slightly Above? The Islanders are a pesky team regardless. 5-4-2 on the road, 5 of their last 8 have went past regulation. It’s a border line stay away. But Florida’s home record of 7-3 and some of their underlying metrics are too hard for me to ignore. The defense is getting healthier with Montour and Ekblad now back for the last 7 games or so. During that stretch, Florida’s losses have been to Boston, Winnipeg, and Toronto. All higher ranked teams than the Islanders. They’ve also conceded just 13 goals against their last 7 games. This line opened Florida -185 and was a pass. Now down to -172 I find some slight value on Florida if you are comfortable betting against line moves.
Ottawa-118 half unit
While it’s tough to confidently take Ottawa, I still rank them slightly higher than Seattle currently. I think this price is being too affected by the fact Ottawa is on a back to back. Now looking, maybe the OVER 6.5 -110 is the better way to go. Why I originally still like Ottawa in the spot? I typically like taking teams who out perform their opponent, but don’t get the result. This is just an opinion but I feel like in that situation the anger out weighs any of the potential fatigue. By all accounts Ottawa will look at yesterdays Columbus game and feel hard done by the result. If Ottawa was facing an above average team I wouldn’t like them as much. But Seattle currently has had an equally disappointing season if not more so. Ottawa does have high expectations to perform at home as well, which they have failed to deliver on up to this point. I have talked myself into splitting this play into half unit on Ottawa -118 and half unit on the total OVER 6.5. Also for the fun of it Ottawa correct score 4-3 including OT at +1200.
Toronto -104 half unit.
Simple line value play getting Toronto as a home underdog. To take Boston on the road at the current -115 you would have to think Boston is about 8.5 percent better than the Leafs and I can’t get there. And even though I’m not getting that level of value on Toronto because of the vig, it’s still about 4 percent on two teams pretty close in the rankings.
Vancouver +105 half unit.
Still unsure how I feel about this play. Vancouver has cooled slightly as expected. Calgary getting some better results to match some of their underlying metrics. Calgary has also faced the tougher opponents and gotten better results over their last 5 games or so. They’ve faced Dallas twice, Vegas and Colorado. I still find it a tough ask to think Calgary can go 4-1 over it’s last 5 games vs top 10 teams. Getting Vancouver at plus money makes this an easier bet for me to play in case things do go sideways and Flames continue to get positive results.