Written by Graeme on Thursday, December 7th, 2023
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A 1-0 night last night, as the Oilers delivered with ease.
Kind of mad about that Stars game – I knew they were going to get the goals, but I was hesitant about them winning. Not sure why I didn’t look at the over team goals bets at least for that one.
Tampa also got the win which was nice to see. Helps that the leans all came in for the confidence, after a few weeks off.
Busy slate tonight.
Bruins vs Sabres:
The Bruins host the Sabres, and if we are taking anything it would be Bruins -1.5. Not loving that with Bruins recent results, but they did thump the Sabres 5-2 over in Buffalo a few weeks ago.
Looking at the metrics – eh, I’m not loving it. Bruins have been a bit leaky lately. It won’t surprise me if they cover the handicap, but the odds seem bang on based on the data. With Marchand rolling again you’d hope even if they concede some goals, they can score enough to overcome that.
Hmmm but then it is looking like Levi is in net. Yeah I think there is enough to go with the Bruins here actually.
Bruins -1.5 if Luukonen not in net
Ontario: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.00 Odds at Intertops.
USA: +100 Odds at Intertops.
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at Intertops.
(Odds correct as of 2023/12/07 11:25:03 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Canadiens vs Kings:
Kings should win but the in regulation odds are a bit low. These two recently played on the 25th and the Kings got a 4-0 win. Habs have been a bit all over the place lately but at least getting some wins in. They either are competitive or get rolled over.
The big factor here in it looks to be the Kings goaltending. So you only want to take it if Talbot in net. But Montembe confirmed for Habs and he has a good record. Seems to be someone in general they play with a bit more confidence with him behind them. I’ll pass on this one.
Red Wings vs Sharks:
Detroit are massive favourites here. By the metrics – eh, I wouldn’t place them that high. Sharks offense has been ticking lately too. Nothing for me here. I actually kinda think it will go over, but the data doesn’t suggest that.
Senators vs Leafs:
Sens come in on the back of two solid home wins and looking to make it 3. Leafs haven’t won in regulation since 7 games ago against Detroit. These two played on November 8th and Sens blasted them.
I kind of like a Sens win here, but the Battle of Ontario is one where a lot of the data and form book often doesn’t matter. The metrics do go towards the Sens winning, but it’s not overwhelmingly so and the Leafs are better in the SCG stats. Oh yeah this is an easy no bet for me actually. This is a real 50/50 one it looks like.
Islanders vs Blue Jackets:
Islanders hefty favourites here. Should be favourites for sure, but their goaltending and defensive metrics are a complete liability. Don’t feel confident backing that D in regulation.
Capitals vs Stars:
On the back of two big losses, the Caps are decent sized underdogs here as they host the Dallas Stars. Dallas though also come in on the back of two tough losses plus they’re on a B2B.
Could it be a sneaky spot to bet the Caps here? Their home performances lately have been pretty good.
I don’t think there is enough to back them here but it’s certainly tempting.
Predators vs Lightning:
I’m fine passing anything involving Tampa at the moment. Hmmmm – I think. Looking at the metrics, I quite like the Preds. But eh – 1.74 odds. That’s a pass for me I’d like some better odds for that one.
Blackhawks vs Ducks:
Not exactly the two best teams squaring off here. This is one of those games where there really isn’t any gut feeling – you just go to the data and odds and hope something jumps out. The metrics suggest the Blackhawks are the better team. Interestingly, the odds don’t reflect that.
Let’s see – looking at last 10 metrics, Hawks scoring more anc conceding less by decent margins. xGF/60 is pretty close but Ducks worse xGA/60. SCG stats are close but again a lean towards the Hawks.
Results wise – after some piss-poor performances, Hawks had a much better one against the Preds. Their recent home performances they are at least up for it and had some wins too.
Yeah I’m sold. I’m about to write a sentence I didn’t think I would be writing this season.
Chicago Blackhawks to win incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.97 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: -103 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.97 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2023/12/07 11:25:03 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Flames vs Hurricanes:
I mean I’m not going to pick the Canes on a B2B after a pounding but I also ain’t going to back the Flames either.
Coyotes vs Flyers:
Coyotes come in on a nice run. 5 game winning streak. Hosting the Flyers who have struggled somewhat with no regulation wins in their last 7 games.
Coyotes slight favourites but I’m not playing it. Their offense is overproducing and I’m not sure this is a great matchup for them. I don’t hate the play by any means as I LOVE seeing how up for it Arizona are at the moment.
Avalanche vs Jets:
The AVs bounced back from the Kings loss to defeat the Ducks. Not a team I feel great about backing at the moment though. They probably win here but the odds aren’t for me.
Canucks vs Wild:
Canucks very inconsistent at the moment. Wild come in on a confidence boosting run albeit over teams on the lower point of the power rankings. Is their special run under Hynes going to end here? Gustavsson comes in playing well and I would think they roll with him tonight.
I was hoping to take the Canucks here. I’ve just seen spots like this before and it looks like a good time for the Wilds run to come to an end. But the Canucks goaltending metrics at the moment are kinda gross and you never know what team is gonna show up.
Lean on the Canucks at best.
Kraken vs Devils:
Nowhere near enough confidence to take the Devils on the road in regulation which is what it would have to be. Nothing to suggest Devils either. No bet.
Last night Graeme chose the perfect time to be an Edmonton Oilers fan
Those are my favourite bets to win – when it’s a team I am wary of, but all the data suggests it is a good bet, and then it actually comes through.
I think I am like 0 for 15 for the Preds for the “actually comes through” part.