December 9th, 2023 NHL Betting Tips

Detroit -120

I like the spot here for Detroit at home. Lyon is confirmed to start. It’s a small sample size for him but he’s performed the best in net for the Red Wings. And with a solid performance here, could make a case for getting more starts. The team in front of him should also give full effort.

Last game out, they were up 4-0 vs the Sharks and allowed San Jose to score 4 straight in the span of six minutes. It was a wild 8 goal second period. The first two the Sharks scored were shorthanded. Detroit was able to retake the lead in the third, only to allow the Sharks to tie it again with a minute and a half left. Red Wings ultimately lost in Overtime.

They were called out afterwards by their coach, mostly for the way they started the game and their poor play in the first period. Husso was able to keep the first period scoreless but has been inconsistent.

For what it’s worth Patrick Kane played his first game for Detroit. I’m not very big on him being relied upon or super impactful, especially at this stage of his career. But if he’s healthy, he could be an upgrade and give them some more depth. As long as he doesn’t disrupt the line chemistry.

Detroit has a solid home record of 8-3-2. They go on the road after this game for two vs the Stars and Blues. When they come back home, it’s for a much tougher matchup vs Carolina. Then back on the road vs a gritty Flyers team. Finally they get a home game vs the Ducks on the 18th that should be favorable for them.

So off the collapse to the Sharks, another poor performance vs Ottawa tonight, and they could be looking at another two weeks until they get a crack at a win on their home ice. They’ve got Toronto and Tampa breathing down their necks in the standings as well.

Ottawa is currently in last place in that division, but has a shit ton of games in hand. In theory the Senators can make up some decent ground. They just lost a hard fought game themselves at home vs rivals Toronto. They outshot them 41-22 in that game, so they’ll feel hard done by the result. This coming off two solid wins. A shutout of Seattle and a 6-2 win over the Rangers. They haven’t gone on the road much, having just 5 games away up to this point.

Ottawa has some tough teams on its schedule for December. They should also be competitive in this spot. But I still think this is an advantage spot for Detroit at home, where they’ve held an edge so far this season.

The -120 is also a value play in my opinion. Yes Detroit can lose this game, but what should the line be? I wouldn’t be able to make them home underdogs here. And that’s pretty much what they are going at when you take away the vig and 5 percent for home ice. That has me a little wary I have this wrong, and might be overlooking something. But I’m just not seeing it. I’ll take Detroit -120 at home vs Ottawa.

LA Kings -145

I’m breaking a couple of my own rules here. First this opened Kings -130, so I’m not getting the best of the number. I also don’t think it’s coming back down though, and may even climb higher. That’s just a guess though on my part. I made the game Kings -145, so I’m taking it right where I thought it should be priced.

I do think there were reasons for the -130 opener and the line move here. And why it could go even higher before game time. And I think it’s different from the obvious Kings are unbeaten 11-0 on the road and that’s bound to come to an end soon. So why not against a tricky Islanders team that’s now 6-1-3 it’s last 10 games?

I think the low line was they were anticipating Copley to start here. Sunday brings us a look ahead of Kings vs Rangers. Both teams play tonight as well. We had a potential look ahead of two red hot teams at the top of their conferences, New York vs LA, and a potential Talbot vs Quick going against their former teams matchup. But it looks like the Kings said ehhh we don’t give a fuck about that. More likely they probably asked Talbot and he said I been on so many teams I could give a shit, I just wanna keep rolling.

Talbot is still listed as Likely to start tonight vs the Islanders though it hasn’t been officially confirmed yet. If something changes, and Copley does start instead, I don’t like this play.

Getting back to tonight’s game though. Yes the Kings will not go unbeaten on the road (I think). And yes the Islanders are playing better. And yes the Kings could also be looking ahead to the Rangers instead of the Islanders. But aside from how well the Kings have played in general, I can’t get over the current edge in goaltending. This can all change over the course of a long season, but currently it’s a big mismatch. Sorokin is likely to start and for the record, I don’t think he’s played poorly.

He has a .911 save percentage. And 9 of his 16 starts have been graded Quality Starts (about 56 percent). He’s also only been graded 1 really bad start. Looking at his game logs and it tells a different story though.

Of Sorokin’s last 11 games, he’s only conceded less than 3 goals twice. Those happened in a two game span and both were against the same team ( the Flyers). So going backwards from December 5th (a home game vs the Sharks) to October 30th (home vs Detroit), his Goals against read….

5-3-5-0-2-4-4-3-4-4-4

So with Sorokin above average numbers yet poor game logs, that’s telling me there’s a bigger issue here. And that’s the team in front of him. They are conceding a shit ton of shots. Even in his two impressive performances vs the Flyers, Philly took 76 shots against him.

This hasn’t gotten better. It stays consistent home or on the road. And it doesn’t seem to matter the quality of opponent either. His most recent game was at home vs the Sharks, where San Jose was able to score 5 goals off 37 shot attempts. That shouldn’t be allowed to happen, especially at home.

A loss to the Sharks as we know can wake a team up. The Islanders seemed to have responded by thrashing Columbus 7-3. However Columbus actually led this game 2-1 at the halfway point. And it was a much tighter 4-3 score line with just 15 minutes left to play. And the Islanders still conceded 35 shots against. They may have turned a corner with a 7-3 victory but, I’m also not so convinced.

The Kings are first in GF/G (3.87) and fourth in shooting percentage (11.6). They also average about 33 shots per game. And I haven’t even gotten to how Talbot and the defense has been playing.

Talbot’s stat line 12-4-1, .933 save percentage, 1.84 GAA. 11 of his 16 starts have been graded Quality Starts. Per Hockey Reference, his GA%- is 69, and his GSAA ( goals saved above average) is 13.8. His Last 13 games he’s given up more than 3 goals once. His Goals against during that span (Dec 7 to Oct 27) from his most recent reads

0-1-2-2-1-1-4-1-0-2-1-3-1

You can’t ask for much better. The defense in front of him? They’ve only allowed opponents to take more than 31 shots in three of his games.

The Islanders are averaging 29.88 shots per game. The Islanders are also 20th in GF/G averaging 3 per. The Islanders do have the sixth best Power Play currently. But The Kings have the second best Penalty Kill. The Kings also have only been on the Penalty Kill 72 times which is fourth lowest in the league. And are the only team with less than 10 goals scored against them while down a man.

There are still worries here on the Kings losing. It could be a flat spot, they are due to lose on the road, Talbot can’t keep it up, The Islanders are performing better and are desperate, Kings could look ahead to tomorrow’s matchup vs the Rangers, and Sorokin could steal one with an epic performance (remember I don’t think he’s played poorly). The Kings have gotten that road record thing whatever it was, and they’ve had some shaky moments recently ( down 3-0 vs Columbus).

I also should have grabbed this at the -130 which is gone, so whether there still is value is debatable. All that said, The Kings form of play in all three areas of the game (offense, defense, and Talbot) is too much for me to ignore. Cautiously taking the Kings -145.

I might have some other plays too, when starting goalies get announced and potential line moves could give me some value. And still have to look at the Vancouver and Tampa Bay games. I’ll post my plays if any. Minus the lengthy write ups.