Written by Scott on Wednesday, December 13th, 2023
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There was 10 games yesterday. We had 2 tips and went 1-1.
Took the Canucks to beat the Lightning and they did 4-1. Boeser scored a hat trick and is tied for the league lead in goals with 21.
I also had the Jets to beat the Sharks in regulation but the Sharks won 2-1. The game was tied until late in the 3rd and the Sharks picked up their 9th win to move out of the basement in the standings.
The Leafs beat the Rangers 7-3. Big night for Matthews who had 2 and 2 and now has 20 on the season and was the first to do so. The Canes snapped their 4 game losing skid when they beat the Sens 4-1. The Oilers won their 8th in a row when they beat the Hawks 4-1 and Bedard scored in the loss.
Only 5 games for tonight.
Penguins vs Canadiens Betting Tips:
The Pens played the Coyotes last night and won 4-2.
The Canadiens last played on Sunday. They are 5-4-1 over last 10. They rank near the bottom of the league in most stats and at home they have gone 6-9-1.
With the way both teams are playing this is one game where I feel it’d best to just avoid.
Bruins vs Devils Betting Tips:
The Bruins have been off since Saturday. They are 5-4-1 over last 10 and are in 1st in the Atlantic and tied for 2nd overall.
The Devils are in 5th in the Metro and have gone 6-4 last 10.
For goals per game the Bruins are 10th and the Devils 4th. For goals allowed the Bruins are 3rd and the Devils 31st.
On the road the Bruins have been good going 8-3-2 and at home the Devils are 5-6-1.
There is decent odds for the Bruins to win including overtime so I think it’s a play for me.
Bruins incl OT/SO
Ontario: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +102 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/12/13 8:56:17 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Ducks vs Islanders Betting Tips:
The Ducks had an 8 game losing skid which they snapped when they beat the Avalanche 4-3 in a shootout and are now on a 3 game losing streak.
The Isles have gone 7-1-2 and have won their last 3 games heading into this one.
The Ducks have gone 5-7-0 on the road and the Isles have gone 7-3-5 at home.
With the way the Ducks have been playing this game should be one that the Isles win. But looking at their stats they haven’t really been that good ranking 20th in goals, 24th in shots, 15th in goals allowed and 31st in shots allowed.
I want to take the Isles but it would have to be in regulation and they have had 3 of their last 4 go to OT so I have to pass as there’s no way I’m taking the Ducks.
Sabres vs Avalanche Betting Tips:
The Sabres have gone 12-14-3 this season which has them in 7th in the Atlantic. Over their last 10 games they are gone 4-5-1.
The Avalanche have gone 17-9-2 this season which has them in 1st in the Central. They are 5-3-2 over last 10.
Looking at the stats and the Avs are the better team ranking better than the Sabres in goals, shots, goals allowed and shots allowed.
On the road the Sabres are 6-7-2 and in Colorado the Avs have gone 10-4-0.
I’m a little reluctant to take the Avs here. It would need to be in regulation and these teams played once this season and it was the Sabres winning that one 4-0.
Jets vs Kings Betting Tips:
The Jets played the Sharks last night and lost 2-1.
The Kings have lost their last 2 games but are still 7-2-1 over last 10. Their home record isn’t very good going 5-4-3 but on the road they have been a great 11-1-1.
There is value if taking the Jets but they are without Connor and he will be missed plus they played yesterday. The Kings home record has me off of taking them so I’m passing.
now that Zacha is also out, still picking the Bruins? The Devils will win
Just checked with Scott and he said yep still with Bruins.
hmmmmm
I feel like the bookies pushed too much the odds for Bruins and it feels like a trap to be honest
It also felt like a trap to me to take Boston as well. The fact that the consensus is Boston but no actual line movement is puzzling. I felt this way about Vancouver yesterday and still played them and it cashed. So maybe now worries here too. However I watched none of the the Tampa game yesterday and just looking at the advanced game metrics of Vancouver and maybe they were a bit fortunate.
According to Natural Stat Trick Vancouver lost the Corsi, Fenwick, Shots, XGF, Scoring Chances, And High Danger chances they also successfully killed all three Penalties and heavily relied on Boeser who seemed to carry them.
My biggest reason to lean towards Boston would be the goaltending mismatch. Both Schmid and Vanecek have been poor. But looking at where the goals have been conceded from and I would have like Boston more if it was vs Schmid. He’s conceding from all over the place and the shot volume would benefit Pasta and Marchand. Vanecek has been struggling from the high danger and that could get cleaned up. But Devils fire power might be able to overcome it. Boston has also been heavily reliant on Marchand (who will cool down at some point) and Pastrnak. Would be nice to see Debrusk or someone step up. Devils can roll three lines at home. I also thought the time off would be a good thing for Boston, but maybe not against a fast young team like Devils.
My first instinct said take Boston, but there’s too many red flags for me. Just my opinion though.
Well, I went for the Devils ML and no regrets. They deserved the win. I am glad I’ve spotted the odds incoherence as it was fishy as you said.
Sabres have a shot tonight and are a different team with Tage Thomspon back. Avs are vulnerable to giving up goals and Sabres can score. ML and team total > 2.5 goals.
Wish I could pull the trigger on WPG. They got caught starting their backup and looking ahead to this spot with the Sharks last night, however, do they offense without Connors?
I know just from watching their games the other day, I can say georgiev is not sharp. He was pulled and i know Colorado will roll with Prosvetov. Buffalo rolling with Luukkonen who hasn’t played since the 3rd with an illness.
Buffalo did look sharp and ready to play vs Arizona. Biron does great job breaking them down in between periods on their gamecast. Lesser opponent and at home for that one. And the one thing I will say is the Avs looked lethal offensively vs the Flames despite all their defense and goaltending struggles. Can’t argue with you feeling like Buffalo could be a sneaky live dog though.
For what it’s worth I think Winnipeg dominated the stats vs Sharks. Went 0 for 5 on the Power Play and the XGA against was high as well. No Connor could def affect them.
Pit Crosby to score +115
Has scored 12 of his 15 on the road for whatever reason.
NYI Dobson to score +450
Preferred this if Gibson starts for Ducks. At work can’t wait for them to announce any longer. Thought about leaving it off because it’s a bit ambitious.
Kings Fiala to score +230
Kings Grundstrom to score +390
Prefer Fiala but wanted to take a shot on Grundstrom as well