Written by Graeme on Thursday, December 14th, 2023
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The Bruins unfortunately lost in OT yesterday. After a good first period where they went up 1-0, the Devils managed to score early in the third to tie it up, then did the business in OT.
The LA Kings continue to go off the rails with three losses in a row now. That sort of thing just shows why data isn’t everything and there are so many factors to consider.
Big win for the Avs, Pens made a meal of it but got the win over the Habs.
Let’s get into todays 8 games:
Leafs vs Jackets:
Toronto are a hard team to back right now. If we were to back them, it’d be the -1.5. Bit hesitant to do that considering they have covered that twice in eleven games.
The metrics generally lean that way, but it’s not overwhelming. Not a fan of the over either due to Jackets offensive metrics and then the Leafs SCGA.
Flyers vs Caps:
There’s games where as soon as I load it up, I’m just like “Ugh, no clue” and am ready to pass. This is one of those games. In saying that, I always like to look at the data anyway as often the story is in there and can turn a nay into a yay.
This one – let’s see. Philly better Corsi & Fenwick. Less goals scored last 10 but they should be scoring more with a better xGF. Goaltending helping them although decent defensive metrics. Both teams SCGF/60 the same.
I’d price Philly in the 1.70 to 1.80 range with the latter being slight value. Bookies have Philly at about 1.71 to 1.74. Unfortunately a pass.
Wings vs Hurricanes:
Wings stopped their skid with a 6-4 win on the road in St. Louis. Now at home against the Hurricanes, who stopped their own skid with a resounding 4-1 win over Ottawa.
Wings offensive metrics actually make them tempting but boy is their goals against and xGA scary, especially with the Canes offense surely going to turn it on soon.
Based on the data, Detroit should get some goals. Unfortunately, over 2.5 is at 1.64 which is a tad below our 1.70 threshold. I still really like it too ha.
What about the over? Line is set at 6.5. By the data, the Wings should be getting goals so can the Canes match them? THeir offense has been a bit mixed lately. But the Wings GA & xGA make it appealing.
Wings of course are without Larkin, Compher and Perron but that didn’t affect things in the Blues win at least.
Truthfully? Sometimes I bet plays where I feel very confident about it. And other times, there’s a bit more of a gamble to it. This falls in the latter. With the Wings missing players and the Canes offense not fully ticking it’s a tad concerning – but I’m going with Over 6.5 goals incl OT/SO. While Lyons overall stats this season are solid, he has shipped 7 past him in the last two games so I’m hoping he’s on a downswing.
Ontario: 1.91 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.97 Odds at Bovada
USA: -103 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/12/14 6:58:11 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Wild vs Flames:
Minnesota coming back home after 9 days to host the Calgary Flames. The Wild went to Calgary an beat them on the 5th. Flames are a mess at the moment and are competing hard but just can’t get it going.
I would have to take Wild in regulation and just not feeling it with the quick turnaround in matchup, and how erratic the Flames are. A large part of this game will be about both goaltenders and how they perform too. Both are a big factor (in different ways) for both teams. Pass.
Blues vs Senators:
Blues come struggling in. Bookies have this as a coinflip. My head says maybe a slight edge to ottawa but let’s see the data. Corsi the same, Ottawa slightly better in Fenwick and better SF%. Goals wise it’s horrendous defensive work which is causing the Blues. Could be good for Ottawa who should be scoring more. Their offense is a bit of a letdown right now.
So here’s where it’s about looking at teams similar to the Blues. As the Sens have an SCGF/60 of 1.97. Brutal. But do they at least get the goals against teams with similar metrics? That’s the type of thing that can make it more of a play. Rangers are similar they put 6 past them. Wings the same. Jackets are a bit closer and they didn’t there.
So based on the data – the Senators SHOULD get the goals.
Unfortunately, Blues also have the new coach in with Drew Bannister serving as interim coach. Will that change be enough? I’m not sure if there is data out there about that. I’ve never seen it despite looking, and I can’t be bothered to make my own. I do know there were studies done in soccer like 10 years ago going over the data in the early 00’s. Some consider it a fallacy but I don’t know if that’s the case.
Either way, it’s enough to put me off. But Sens should get the goals based on the data.
Oilers vs Lightning:
Oilers run continues although it must be noted they haven’t played the best of the best other than the Knights. Their next toughest game was the Canes who are on a down-skid in the power rankings.
The good news is Tampa are generally a mess right now and are not a top 10 team at all. We would have to take Edmonton in regulation.
The data is certainly there for it. I will say that Tampa have a few slightly sneaky good metrics such as SCGA/60 of 2.09 which is 8th best over every teams last 10. Of course Wild and Knights are above them there and Oilers had no issues there.
HDGA/60 is another and Oilers rely heavily on HDGF goals and are #1 in the league right now. But again – Wild have a better HDGA/60 and the Oilers had no problem getting 4 against them.
I’m actually going to pass on this one. There’s just something in the back of my head with warning bells going off. And like I said – there are a few metrics about Tampa that are concerning me right now. Especially when they are coming off games against the Hawks and Devils, who have two of the worst HDGA/60. Quite a polar opposite that could mess up Edmonton.
Kraken vs Blackhawks:
Kraken are hefty favourites here but I feel are just not backable. The data generally leans their way but it’s not overwhelming enough to take them in regulation at 1.74 odds.
Canucks vs Panthers:
Canucks with 3 nice wins on the trot. Now host Florida who were just stunned by Seattle 4-0. Panthers have been alright on the bounce back this year but nothing amazing.
Bookies have the Canucks as slight dogs. Huh – I actually agree with them. I’d probably have it at flip odds myself but yeah I can see it. That’s a surprise – I thought I was going to look at the data and be like “oh yeah this is a great spot for Vancouver”. But it’s not. Pass on this one.
Bannister is putting Buchnevich-Thomas-Kyrou together and that with the players being shaken out of their complacence will give them a boost tonight against a Sens team that has no answers. Home dogs Blues +110
Wild took it to the Flames on the road last time these teams met. Flames are not a good road team and Gustavsson has been tremendous in his L5 (4-1-0) with a ridiculous .951 SV%. Wild ml -150
Oilers are a wagon. 8-0-0 L8. TT over 7-1 L8. Oilers reg -107 and TT over 3.5 -130
GLTA SDB
Not much I can pick today.
Oilers moneyline seems good, with the stats and situation developing, both for the Oilers and Tampa right now. Oilers are on a heater with a mission, and their defensive numbers very good for quite a few games, at home, rested, Tampa in trouble regardless.
Detroit/Carolina at OVER 5.0 looks highly likely, but the odds will be tiny, maybe parlayed with the Oilers, using play money.
Nothing for me in the NBA or NCAAB today either. AHL such a crapshoot; teams incredibly inconsistent game to game.