Written by Graeme on Saturday, December 16th, 2023
Follow @BetNHL
A 2-0 night yesterday.
Rangers covered the handicap with ease.
Stars in regulation was just a tad more of a sweat, and it got off to a bad start with Oettinger conceding quickly then going out with an injury. Although I didn’t make that one goalie dependent simply because I don’t have much faith in Oettinger at the moment anyway. Plus I hate typing his name – I swear I spell it wrong every single time and have just given up trying to sort it.
Be sure to check out the comments of each post as well. Lot of great posts on there often and a shoutout to DeNapos and his player props. He had a good one yesterday with Kreider to score, and a great +350 call on the Bruins/Islanders game going to OT.
The usual insane Saturday let’s get to it:
Wild vs Canucks:
Wild coming in off that Flames shootout victory. Canucks coming in on a roll. Vancouver aren’t a team I really want to back on the road though and Gustvsson isn’t someone I want to bet against at the moment either. But I don’t see enough here to wager the Wild. No bet.
Jets vs Avalanche:
Jets coming off the solid road win over the crumbling Kings. Avs a bit iffy on the road. This is one where while I don’t want to back them, I’m looking at the data and hoping it points to a Jets win. I’m just not seeing it though – they have been way too reliant on goaltending. No bet.
Flyers vs Wings:
Nothing I like here. Wings are very erratic.
Jackets vs Devils:
Decent price on the Jackets at about 2.80. Maybe some value in them but I’d worry about them scoring. One of those where while I see value, I also don’t have enough confidence to back.
Canadiens vs Islanders:
If you’re backing this, you’re backing the Islanders offense to keep overperforming. I could see it. habs xGA/GA 60 is basically yeah 3 goals they are gonna concede. They can ride teams hard though and the Islanders inability to win in regulation consistently is a concern plus the B2B. No bet.
Bruins vs Rangers:
Both on B2Bs. Happy to pass.
Leafs vs Penguins:
Happy not to bet anything involving the Leafs rn. Don’t even think it’s worth analyzing.
Blues vs Stars:
Blues got the nice win over the Senators 4-2. Stars also last beat the Sens just last night in that mental game.
Think it’s probably worth a shot on the Blues here. New coach, coming off a win and some confidence going. Against a Stars team on a B2B who will likely be playing Wedgewood again.
The data obviously isn’t going to back it up, but there are some high points with Blues better CF & FF and xGF/. Of course they concede the goals like crazy, but I gotta hope their offense carries them through here.
Blues incl OT/SO and tbh I wouldn’t be opposed to an extra gamble on regulation win.
Ontario: 2.20 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.21 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +121 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.20 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/12/16 10:07:50 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Predators vs Capitals:
Nothing here. Data suggests Preds should be slight favourites so odds pretty close to being dead on.
Coyotes vs Sabres:
Eh both teams on a B2B and both a bit iffy anyway. Books have it as a coinflip. Man this is an interesting one as Coyotes have Vejmelka in net tonight and it’s really been goaltending that has been a factor for them.
Man – this is a very close one. If they weren’t on a B2B I’d take Buffalo here for sure. Or I was getting above 2.10. One of those games where I approach it from a bunch of angles trying to convince myself. And I think I’ll be kicking myself tomorrow for not backing Buffalo.
Oilers vs Panthers:
That Oilers/Tampa game was a mess and now Edmonton looking to bounce back against a team who has been shut out their last two. Oilers this is the last game before they hit the road, so you gotta hope they are up for it.
To be honest following that loss after a streak, I really want to stay away from the Oilers. But man – the bookies are making it very tempting.
I gotta take ’em. If the Panthers offense gets going again so be it – but we know that even if they do, the Oilers can often outscore them. And the Oilers defensive metrics etc are quite nice.
Oilers incl OT/SO
Ontario: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -130 Odds at Intertops.
Everyone Else: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/12/16 10:07:50 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Kraken vs Kings:
Kraken on two big wins now they host the LA Kings who have hit a bit of a skid. 2.25 odds for Seattle isn’t bad at all. Their issue has been their offense, and now they have had 3 big games out of the last 4. Talbot just got lit up bigly too.
Man this is similar to that Buffalo one – really want to take the Kraken here. I think it will come in. But it just feels very reactive to the short-term.
Flames vs Lightning:
Nothing for this one.
Thanks for the shout out and kind words. You’ve always been supportive and I continue to like reading your daily write ups on your process of identifying the plays you land on. Hope I can come thru with something to justify it. Just early game scorer props I’ll try and rush out. I let time slip. Will try to work on later games and post something better.
Vancouver JT Miller to score +230
Gustavsson has been sharper in his recent game logs so use caution. I’ll also be taking Zuccarello against Desmith, in case one of the goalies has a solid performance. I wanted to go with an Over 6 at -120 but the stats i was relying on might be too heavily factoring on Minnesota and Gustavsson early season play and not weighted properly towards their recent performances.
Minnesota Zuccarello to score +280
Keep expectations low on this and Miller.
Also an injury note besides the Oettinger one. Incase someone missed as I often do, Columbus Laine is back out. They are saying six weeks with clavicle. And Tarasov gets his first start of the season in net for Blue Jackets as well. Might be why there’s a decent price even though I know you ultimately landed on not backing it. Regardless of the result it’s probably why the price jumped out to you.
My Plays
Penguins Crosby to score +120
Penguins Malkin +195
Columbus to score first in 1st Period (three way no push) +175
NJ/ CBJ both to score +146
Detroit Debrincat to score +180
Don’t feel great about the plays today. Couldn’t focus. Lengthy write ups below so you can at least see the logic behind them in case today turns in to a dud.
The large slate his made it difficult for me to lock in today. I’ve still made plays but they feel a little off and scattered if that makes any sense. I’ll post the plays I’ve made but not much confidence in them and hopefully I can lock into something tomorrow or at least focus better. There was still a ton of games that I didn’t even look at and maybe something will still jump out on a later game though by that point I might just throw in the towel.
Pittsburgh Crosby to score +120
Pittsburgh Malkin to score +195
Debated keeping Malkin off. I feel like Toronto starter Martin Jones has some rust to him based on the areas where he conceded goals vs the Rangers. Crosby as I mentioned last time out has scored much more on the road then at home. I’m hesitant to go back to the well after cashing that one. But I feel like the veterans Crosby and Malkin can potentially recognize if Jones is indeed not up to speed with his mechanics and at least one if not both can cash in potentially.
Malkin hasn’t scored in 7 straight. That doesn’t necessarily make him an automatic here. I try and have more than the he’s due logic when making a play, so I’m breaking that rule here. He is staying involved, recording assists in 3 straight and 6 of the last 8 games. So he hasn’t gone invisible. His longest spans without a goal this season, prior to this 7 game drought, have been 3. Most those times his shot totals dropped. He hasn’t been a high volume shooter as is this season, but has taken 19 over the last 7. He’s had 5 goals in 9 games in October, and 5 in 13 in December. Shooting percentages for those months were 16.7 and 20 respectively. So his current 0 goals in 6 games on 17 shots for December is an outlier that should change at some point. And though his split isn’t as extreme as Crosby’s, 6 of his 10 have been scored on the road. The matchup vs Martin Jones may kickstart Malkin.
Penguins were expecting to get back Rakell as he’s been back at practice, but he’s been ruled out for this matchup. So Penguins will need to continue to rely on Guentzel, Crosby and Malkin to provide the offense. The +195 on Malkin makes it worth a play for me.
Columbus to score first 1st period (three way no push) +175
In order for this to cash, CBJ has to score first and it has to occur in the first period. I’m a little wary of this with Tarasov starting and the Devils getting healthier. I believe Hamilton is the only name player for the Devils still out.
Columbus has scored first in 10 of their 18 home games and 18 of their 31 overall. Devils have scored first in just 5 of 14 road games and 7 of 27 overall. The Devils not being at full strength for stretches of this season might be a factor and this could potentially balance out. Factoring that in the +175 makes it worth a play by me.
I’ll also play both teams to score 1st period +146. There are some stats that Im overlooking that are against this play. But if I like Columbus to score first in the 1st period, and a healthy NJ gets to face Tarasov, it’s not that hard for me to think both can net one here. The stats however have shown both teams tend to leak goals in the third periods, and there first period goals against are actually quite low. So this might come back to burn me twice.
Detroit Debrincat to score +180
Zero goals his last 6. He did go through a 7 game stretch without a goal as well, so there’s some caution there. Plus now two months not as good as his first. This is not a he’s due handicap. This is a play against the goals that Ersson has conceded could benefit Debrincat. 10 of Ersson’s 31 goals against have been in the Mid Range area. 41 of Debrincat’s 95 shots have been from this location. 7 of his 13 goals have been from that area. I like the matchup but I don’t have a huge sample size of handicaps with this logic to know if it’s successful consistently.