Written by Scott on Monday, December 18th, 2023
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There was 5 games yesterday and we had 1 tip which was a win.
Had the Knights to win in regulation against the Sens and they did 6-3.
The Canucks beat the Hawks 4-3. Boeser scored his 23rd to move into a tie with Matthews for the league lead. The Capitals beat the Canes 2-1 in a shootout.
MacKinnon scored twice to extend his point to 15 games when the Avs beat the Sharks 6-2 and the Ducks beat the Devils 5-1.
5 more games for us tonight.
Ducks vs Red Wings Betting Tips:
The Ducks played yesterday against the Devils and won 5-1 to snap their 5 game skid.
The Wings have lost their last 2 games but the scores were close. They are still without Larkin which is obviously going to hurt them. They have moved Copp up into his place.
I’m staying away from this game. It’s the Ducks on a back to back and the Wings injuries that did it for me.
Wild vs Penguins Betting Tips:
The Wild are on a 3 game win streak beating the Kraken and then having two shootout wins first against the Flames and then the Canucks.
The Penguins are 4-3-3 over last 10 and are coming into this game after getting curb stomped by the Leafs who were without Matthews.
Both teams records aren’t encouraging enough for me to take them. The Wild are 12-12-4 and the Pens are 13-13-3.
Canadiens vs Jets Betting Tips:
The Habs have taken three games to overtime this month. There wasn’t much hope for them heading into the season but at this point they are only 3 points behind the Lightning in the Atlantic and ahead of the Sabres and the Sens.
The Jets are tied for 2nd in the Central with the Stars. They are without Connor but have still won their last 2 games beating some solid teams too in the Kings and Avalanche.
The Jets are better than the Habs in goals, shots, goals allowed and shots allowed. At home they are 9-5-1. Even without Connor I still like their chances here.
I’m worried about the number of overtime games the Canadiens have played and if taking the Jets it has to be regulation so I’m passing.
Kraken vs Stars Betting Tips:
Not a fan of the Kraken this season. They have gone 10-14-8 and are in 5th in the Pacific.
The Stars are tied for 2nd place in the Central with the Jets who are also playing today.
The Kraken have played a bunch of games that needed extra time, 11 in total already this season.
With the Stars at home and tied for 2nd in the Central, and only 2 points behind the Avalanche, I expect them to come ready for this game. They are 2-0-1 over last 3 games.
Stars in regulation
Ontario: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Rest of Canada: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: No Odds posted but BetOnline. usually best for regulation plays
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/12/18 8:08:51 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Panthers vs Flames Betting Tips:
The Panthers offense got going again in their last game. They were shutout in two straight games but put 5 past the Oilers after.
The Flames continue to be a hard to to try and figure out. They beat the Lightning in the last game but the 2 before that were a shootout loss to the Wild and a overtime loss to the Knights.
With the play of both teams of late there isn’t really anything I like here. The Panthers offense can disappear and the Flames are too inconsistent to back at the moment.
Detroit Debrincat to score +155
Larkin expected to be back. Even though Debrincat is slated to play on the second line he should be the focal point there. He’ll still occupy a spot on the top power play, which should be upgraded with Larkins return. The Ducks have conceded the most Power Play opportunities against in the league, which should provide additional opportunities for Debrincat.
Debrincat performs better at home. Debrincat has gone cold, but should have a favorable matchup vs Dostal (projected to start, not official) and a Ducks team on a road back to back. Gibson started yesterdays win over the Devils and was pulled after two periods, with I believe flu like symptoms. They haven’t announced tonight’s starter but I am projecting it to be Dostal. If it’s indeed Dostal, he’s conceded 24 of his 41 goals against from the high danger area. Another 15 have been from the mid range area. So 39 of his 41 goals against have come from the areas Debrincat has had the most success. 10 of Debrincat’s 13 goals have come from those areas.
Minnesota Eriksson Ek to score +195
Full disclaimer, I got this price when it was put up early this morning. It’s now dropped and even the book I got it at, its currently priced +170. So that value is probably gone. I also have him in a same game parlay with Rossi at +1127.
Nedeljkovic starting for Penguins. 9 of the 17 goals against have come from the high danger slot and crease. I would gather he struggles with traffic and rebounds. The Wild have scored 14 High Danger Goals For over their last 8 games. This has been The Penguins big weakness, as they’ve given up 24 Goals Against from this area over the last 11 games. In comparison, Just 5 from Mid Range and 1 Low Danger Goal Against during that same span. 48 percent of Ek’s 106 shots and 10 of his 14 goals have come from this High Danger area. And he’s been consistently averaging over 4 shots per game in both his last 10 and 5 game windows.
He is on the high end of both his Shooting Percentage and Goals Per Game averages though. But on the plus, He has scored consistently this season, without falling into long droughts. And has scored 8 goals in 15 road games.
Two Team Parlay -172
Detroit OVER Team Total 2.5 (-370)
Montreal UNDER Team Total 3.5 (-410)
Anaheim on a road back to back. Red Wings averaging over 3.5 Goals For at Home. Ducks Averaging over 3.5 Goals against on the Road. Red Wings should get some Power Play opportunities to add to their chances. If Dostal starts for the Ducks, he did stop all 10 of the shots he saw in relief of Gibson yesterday. But has conceded 3 or more goals against in 7 of the 11 games prior.
Montreal has 31 regulation goals in 12 road games (2.58). Winnipeg is averaging 2.66 goals against at home.
Hellebuyck confirmed for Jets. He’s a perfect 5-0 in the month of December, allowing just 9 goals against so far during that time. The last time he’s allowed more than 3 goals against was on November 2nd at Vegas.
I did have some 1st period plays for this game, but at the time I projected Montembeault would start for Montreal. Allen has however been confirmed. I haven’t bought out of them, but don’t have confidence in them either, due to the inconsistency trying to project what I’m going to get from Allen. Another play I still have going is a Jets 3-1 correct score at +2200. Once again thought it’d be Montembeault. Letting it ride because I don’t like the thought of buying out at a loss. And the rare instance it may actually come thru would break my brain if I bought out.
I will also take a half unit play on Florida Tkachuk to score +175. Little hesitant as his shot totals have decreased slightly this month. But he has netted 2 goals in the 7 games this month. Along with a shooting percentage more in line with last years 12.4%.
Markstrom has been out since December 2. And hasn’t been super sharp this year. May have some rust. 41 percent of Tkachuk shots are from the High Danger area. His next highest is 16 from the right Mid Danger area. Tkachuks shooting percentage from these two areas have been extremely poor at 5.1 and 6.2 respectively. Even if he won’t reach 40 goals this season, these should still tick up. A matchup vs Markstrom might be what Tkachuk needs to get some confidence going. The +175 is decent value for me to risk on a guy who could get back into form soon.
Bro you put life and soul in your previews! Good luck to you with your picks!
You are right, Mr. Larkin is back and this is what pushes me to take them for the win. GL
Thanks Good Luck to you as well.
To WIN moneyline: Winnipeg Jets
Jets Vilardi OVER 2.5 shots (odds are x2.25)
Leans:
Full game UNDER 7.0: Minnesota/Penguins
To WIN moneyline: Flames
Winnipeg is on a well-deserved heater with Connor out and they’ve adjusted lines and are 100% determined to keep winning. Montreal is getting better, slowly, but are outclassed here and don’t have stats, streaks or a situation in their favor tonight. Jets are adequately rested, good schedule situation, Habs are starting a long road trip with a TOUGH matchup. Jets aren’t confused about who they are, while Calgary and Edmonton currently are.
Vilardi is a beneficiary of Winnipeg adjustments and with others, has stepped up his game and is a fully integrated offensive animal. Against Montreal? yes.
Penguins are in freefall and are taking a HUGE, GIANT, GARGANTUAN, GODZILLA-LIKE number of social conduct penalties, and don’t have any stats or signs that they can handle this matchup. Their long-term fade for lack of attention to keeping the team maintained and just being google-eyed over having an ex-superstar, has transitioned into a condition where they’re going to be drifting fast towards a retool or rebuild, if not a full implosion first. Their last three games had penalty counts of 10, 4 and 6. That’s just ugly behavior. Minnesota is fast enough and has players who are very aggressive and can’t be intimidated. Penguins vs Lumberjacks. Gee? While the Wild to win is an option, the lower goal count is also very likely.
Flames get Markstrom and Tanev back tonight, so expect their defense to be more coordinated in their own zone, turnovers and breakdowns to be cut in half and the hate-on for Tkachuk and Bennett will be on fans minds all game long. Listen for boos when Tkachuk gets the puck. Plus the Flames have their effective youth players Zary, Pospicil, Duehre, and Sharangovich putting up big points counts, (far more than Tkachuk and Gaudreau combined!) working very well with veterans Coleman, Kadri, Andersson, Hanafin, Backlund, and the Flames are very capable of taking control of a full period at will against most teams. I don’t know exactly what happened in Edmonton, besides the Oilers being full of holes as usual over the last 5 years, but the Flames are a much more difficult creature for Florida surf bunnies to tackle.