Written by Graeme on Thursday, January 4th, 2024
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Quite funny yesterday – Bet365 ran a promo where you get $5 in bonus bets up to 6x for every time the Leafs score as long as you bet $30 on the game.
Most of my friends use Bet365 and told me about the bet and they were all taking advantage of it and thought it was free money. Think they also bet stuff like Leafs in regulation, Leafs -1.5 etc.
Boy was my phone blowing up last night. All so furious as the Leafs didn’t even score a goal until like 6 minutes left.
God I love those Leafs.
Let’s look at Thursdays big schedule:
Canadiens vs Sabres:
Habs fresh off that big 4-3 win in Dallas. Now hosting the very inconsistent Sabres who got blown out by the Sens to end the year.
You look at the home/road records and results in general and its like eh – Habs as dogs? Could see a win here seems like it has value. Habs have also beaten them twice this season already both times in Buffalo.
The Habs top line is starting to work together well too – although it’s been tough watching them this season, I’ve enjoyed watching that line the last little bit.
No clue if the metrics will make this a play or not so let’s see. Sabres much better in Corsi, slightly in FF. More shots for the Sabres. Slightly more goals scored, but Habs better GA/60 and xGA/60. xGF yeah Sabres too slightly better. SCGF/60 is about the same, Sabres SCGA/60.
Honestly? Prior to looking at the metrics, I liked the Habs here. Looking at them – it feels like a 50/50 type of game. I’m good to take the Habs. Not even going to make it goalie dependent either as while Sams overall stats are better this year, he has conceded 3+ goals for the last 6 games straight so it feels weird to back him.
For probably the only time this season I’ll write these words: Montreal Canadiens incl OT/SO.
Ontario: 2.20 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.27 Odds at Bovada
USA: 2.27 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Everyone Else: 2.27 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2024/01/04 12:32:49 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Rangers vs Blackhawks:
Rangers coming in off that Canes loss. Would have to take them -2.5 for any value. Interesting as I mean they are SO inconsistent but when they win in regulation, they cover that with ease. Their last 5 regulation wins have been by at least 3 goals.
Blackhawks still a mess. Rangers are just too dicey for me to back this. Looking at the metrics, -1.5 would be close to a play although their SCGF/60 concerns me. Basically – you’re gambling that the Rangers will win in regulation, and if they do, they do that Rangers thing.
I could see it. If I’m watching the game I’ll probably even play it. But it’s just got too much of the GAMBLE flag on it for me to back.
Flyers vs Blue Jackets:
Flyers in on a losing streak looking to sort that. With the way the Blue Jackets offense is overall, I’m happy to stay away from Flyers in regulation. Just too erratic.
Bruins vs Penguins:
Boston on a nice little run albeit against weaker teams. Step up in competition against the Pens tonight. I’m fine not betting anything here. Aaaaactually by the metrics, Pens stand out as a good play huh. And that’s using weighted metrics. Corsi is a ton better especially offensively. Offense producing etc.
The one issue is the Bruins home record. That’s damn impressive. And the thing is I have a bad history with the Pens and on the road. I think there have been 5 key bets over the years where they ticked all the boxes big time, I felt very confident, and they got blown out. So that affects me. Plus Pens have a bad history in Boston.
So yeah I gotta pass. Just a couple too many red flags for me. If I could get slightly better odds say 2.40 I might be on it.
Predators vs Flames:
I mean neither team I am really rushing to back. By the metrics the odds seem about right. It’s a close one.
Stars vs Avalanche:
Stars looking to bounce back after that Habs loss. Avs had a solid last few weeks overall. Metric wise, Stars look fairly solid here. But at about 1.76 odds, and looking at the results lately – eh. I mean when they win it’s mostly tight. They’ve struggled against some weaker teams etc. Odds seem what I would set it at.
Wild vs Lightning:
Minnesota come in looking to end their losing streak. Tampa are just really weird right now. Metrics generally have this pretty close when it all balances out although Tampas xGA is concerning. Wild have some key injuries that affects them though.
I don’t hate Tampa overall but don’t have the confidence to back them on the road at these odds.
Blues vs Canucks:
Blues little surge came to an end and have lost last two. Canucks bounced back nice.
Honestly I thought I’d go through the data and come out feeling really confident about the Canucks but that is not the case. The bookies have them at decent odds too – would probably still have to take them in regulation but thats a bit of a red flag.
I dunno now I look it over let’s talk it out. Blues better CF but CF% is close, Blues much better FF. Blues shoot a ton more, better xGF. But Canucks are no slouch offensively, better SCGF etc.
This is such a weird one. I feel better with Binnington in net. I’m going to go with Canucks in Regulation but I guarantee this is one where if it doesn’t come in, I’m going to be kicking myself tomorrow. Like if that Habs play doesn’t come in that’s fine – I feel good about it based on everything I wrote. This one? Not as much. The price makes it worth it I think.
Ontario: 2.20 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.20 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +107 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.20 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/01/04 12:32:49 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Nothing.
Knights vs Panthers:
Eh the Knights home results and performances put me off the Panthers here.
Kraken vs Senators:
That Kraken GA/60 last 10 is NUTS. 1.48. So first thing we have to look at is who they have played due to the Sens GF/60 and slightly less xGF/60. They stifled the Stars, which I think is the only notable one in the top 10.
On the other side of things, Sens able to get the goals past Canucks who have a really good GA/60. Coyotes as well. Even though they conceded.
Ohhh this is an intriguing one. Krakens SCGF/60 is so poor. No bet, but as someone who loves data I’m really curious to see how this one plays out.
Kings vs Red Wings:
Eh neither team really backable.
Sharks vs Jets:
Jets should dominate here but -1.5 on the road is not a bet I enjoy making.
