Written by Graeme on Saturday, January 6th, 2024
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Whew – last night was quite a nerve-wracking game!
Had the Canes to beat the Caps in regulation. Like I said – easiest bet in the world to make. Ticked all the boxes. Good odds. Wish there were more bets like that. Max unit bet for me.
Then the Canes are 2-0 down with about 16 minutes on the clock! And are 2-1 down with just 20 left to play.
Thankfully, a late rally was enough and they were able to get a convincing win in the end. Whew – that one as intense.
Let’s look at Saturday:
Flyers vs Flames:
Flyers slight dogs at home. Not a backable team right now any. Flames are a bit trickier. Streaky at the moment. On a good 3 game winning streak with 2 on the road.
Flames metrics pretty solid. They’re a team I struggle to back at the moment but you look at the data and it’s pretty solid. Better GF & xG by a fair margin. Beter SCGF etc.
These two played at the end of the year ahd the Flames got the tight 4-3 victory at home.
This is a weird one to be honest – in that there are quite a few reasons why I shouldn’t play this. And most of the time, I’d agree with those. Especially my big one – them having played each other within the last week.
But the data to me looks good enough to go with Flames win incl OT/SO if Markstrom in net. And just to summarize how weird this one is – there’s a strong part of me hoping Markstrom doesn’t play so this is a no bet.
Ontario: 1.90 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 1.90 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -112 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2024/01/06 9:49:46 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Avalanche vs Panthers:
Very interesting game. Panthers defensive metrics obviously top notch. Their xGF is great too and their offense is starting to deliver.
2.15 is not a bad price for them. They have beaten some tricky opposition too such as the Rangers during this span.
I’ll pass on them. This is a massive test for them – and to be honest I think they might get through it.
Penguins vs Sabres:
Pens coming in off that big Boston win. Sabres off the big Habs win. Corsi & Fenwick is very tight with a miniscule edge to the Sabres last 10. pens outscoring, better xG, better SCG. HDG stats look good.
Buffalo definitely coming in off some good stuff – their offense ticking, that Levi performance etc. But I think Penguins in Regulation is fine.
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -108 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/01/06 9:49:46 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Blue Jackets vs Wild:
Icky game. Nothing really jumps out in the data. My gut says Wild offense get going against this team and they pull out the win, but don’t feell good backing them on the road.
Canadiens vs Rangers:
I’m quite happy not to back the Rangers right now with their hot/cold streak going on.
Bruins vs Lightning:
The data actually points mostly to a Tampa win here, interestingly. Better CF & FF, CA/FA the same. Better GF%, better xGF%, better SCGF%. Solid value bet here I’d say.
Not one I can publicly advise I feel though with Tampas recent performances, plus hey Boston at home. But one I’ll be backing.
Sharks vs Leafs:
Leafs going for another win on this West Coast trip. I’m not one to back handicaps on the road. And despite it being the Sharks, I just don’t trust Toronto.
Devils vs Canucks:
Disappointed in that Canucks performance against the Blues. Especially coming so close to the Flyers result. Staying away from them for a bit.
Glance at the data and with the Devils offensve metrics – man, can see why New Jersey are favourites.
Stars vs Predators:
Stars in regulation is very tempting based on the data. It checks the boxes. The one issue is their form going into this. One regulation win in their last 5 against teams like the Habs, Blackhawks and Blues, plus they recently played the Preds. Heiskanen out as well although Oettinger might be back which is good news.
Anyway this is one of those that just has that “Gamble” light shining a little bit too brightly on it. I’ll be surprised if the Stars don’t pick up the W though.
Hurricanes vs Blues:
Happy to pass with the Canes just playing.
Knights vs Islanders:
Looking at the metrics, nothing for this one. Could see the Islanders taking advantage of the Knights defensive and goaltending mess, but it’s a bit tight.
OIlers vs Senators:
Would have to be Oilers -1.5. They’ve covered that in 4 of their last 5 regulation wins. Sens have lost by that amount in 4 of their last 5 regulation losses.
Data has Oilers with a bigger CF% & FF% advantage, no surprise. I’d like the Sens SCGA/60 to be slightly higher for the handicap.
Actually wait – Oilers in regulation looks fine too. I must have misread the price. Well, if I like Oilers -1.5 enough to back it – which I think I do, I certainly like the regulation win.
There’s enough here to back Edmonton. Oilers in Regulation
Ontario: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -121 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/01/06 9:49:46 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Calgary Sharangovich to score +250
CBJ +115
Don’t have much confidence in the play but there may be some value. I don’t have much faith in Tarasov who is starting for Columbus, and it’s a small sample size, but he’s strung together two solid games with impressive save percentages. The three prior to that were absolutely brutal though.
I also don’t have much confidence in Wild goaltender Fleury either. He however hasn’t been the issue over the Wilds 4 game losing streak, as he’s performed well. He hasn’t conceded more than 3 goals in his last 6 games played.
Tarasov has done a really good job preventing goals from the High Danger area. It’s only five games though and it’s due to regress you would have to think. Where he’s done poorly is the mid range goals that he’s been allowing. So my first goal was to look at which Wild players fit the bill. However, most Wild players success and game style is to crash the net.
So this could be a game where Tarasov has success vs the Wild because of the matchup and his strength, or one where he concedes a few to a team adapt at scoring which causes his Save Percentage to regress and fall in line with the rest of his shot breakdowns. He could also still concede the goals form the Mid Range, it’s just tougher to pick out who that player or players would be.
It’s been the Wild scoring that’s let them down, having scored just 6 goals over the past 4. My first instinct would be this would be a get right game for the Wild and that still wouldn’t surprise me. However, I don’t think that’s as big of a lock as most would think and this could be a sneaky win for the Blue Jackets. The Wild offense could also get going, only to have Fleury be the one that ultimately lets them down.
It’s a very volatile play with lots of possible outcomes. There’s probably way better plays on tonights huge card. But this is what I spent the time on so I personally might as well play it.
I keep seeing Blue Jackets -1.5 and maybe a 4-2 score line. CBJ could get down right from the jump and this could go up in flames early. Also if things do go well and they get an early lead, The Jackets are not a bad candidate for cashing out early. I’m not a fan of this as I end to let my bets ride, but this is a team that struggles to play a complete game and no lead is safe with them. I did pick a few goal scorers as well that I will be playing in case this doesn’t pan out.
Minnesota Eriksson Ek +135
He feels like the most overdue. High volume shooter. Performs just as well on the road. Over his last two seasons he averaged a goal about every 3 games. This year he’s ahead of that at 2.46. He’s has gone quite cold recently, scoring just once of his last 11 games. Currently at 5 games without a goal which would tie his season high of games without a goal. It hasn’t been for lack of effort however as he’s shot 51 times over this 11 game span.
Minnesota Marcus Johansson +280
Johansson is not a big shooter so this one will probably leave me frustrated. However trying to identify someone on the Wild that can capitalize on Tarasov’s weaknesses had me landing on Johansson. He’s taken just two shots over his last three games and guys like this aren’t fun to bet on because of their tendency to disappear for long stretches. He’s taken 12 of his 61 shots from the area I was looking for. Problem is he’s only scored once from there.
Columbus Marchenko to score +230
One of the reasons I started thinking the Blue Jackets had a chance to win this game is because I couldn’t narrow down or eliminate a lot of their players from scoring today. They have quite a few that feel like they are on the verge of getting goals, if not tonight then soon. That makes it tougher to pick Marchenko with confidence, but I felt like he has one of the better track records along with solid value at the price Im getting him at.
Zuccarello should return for Wild tonight. I don’t know what to expect out of him first game back. I tend to wait until players get some games under them and that’s even with better goal scorers than Zuccarello. Having said that it wouldn’t surprise me if I jinxed it and he nets one lol.