Written by Graeme on Sunday, January 7th, 2024
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Hi guys,
1-2 day yesterday.
The win was the Oilers. Forsberg did a great job in net for the Sens, but it wasn’t enough as Oilers got the win in regulation, and also covered the handicap which is what I had initially analyzed.
Lost with the Flames over the Flyers. Disappointing one with penaties being a big factor in that game.
Things just didn’t go our way in Pittsburgh. Pens looked fine, couple of disallowed goals really affected them, hit the post a few times – just good ol variance. Don’t think that second goal shoulda been waved off but it is what it is.
Panthers got through the big Av test. Wild offense DID get going and squeaked the win.
Rangers hot/cold streak continued and glad I stayed away there. The data didn’t match up as Tampa got thumped by Boston. Devils/Canucks a banger.
Let’s look at Sundays card:
Blackhawks vs Flames:
Absolutely zero chance I take the Flames -1.5 here on a B2B. Data doesn’t fully support it anyway due to Flames xGA and SCGF/60.
Capitals vs Kings:
Washington coming in off the Canes loss. Kings are still not backable. That team really needs to rediscover their mojo. By the data Kings should take it but I wouldn’t have the confidence in them inr egulation and it’s pretty close.
Coyotes vs Jets:
Coyotes coming in on the back of a couple of thumpings. Can Winnipeg add to that? They have been impressive lately. For value, would have to take Jets in regulation.
It’s pretty close, but a lot of this Winnipeg streak has been some tight games. I dunno, Jets in regulation is probably okay here. Their goaltending has been a big factor.
Yet there’s just something about it I don’t love. Can’t quite put it into words – but the Jets check most of the boxes, yet I don’t feel good about it. Going to pass, although mathematically Jets in regulation looks fine to me.
Ducks vs Wings:
No bets here. Data is all over the place for both teams. Wings with a GA/60 of 3.92 but xGA of 2.88. Ducks with aw GA/60 of 3.09 but an xGA of 3.92. Yeah all way too high variance.
How about Flames under then?
Flames GF/60 and xGF/60 compared to Hawks GA/60 and xGA/60 is a bit concerning. As it looks like the Flames could rack up a decent amount of goals (although the SCG stats lessen that somewhat).
Hawks offensive metrics generally better at home., Not a play I really like.
Hey guys! been following the page for a while. Was wondering when you would post stats for november/decemeber? Maybe a first half of the season recap for the all star break? Thanks
Yeah sorry hopefully get to that within the next couple of weeks. I usually update it on a weekly basis, but these past couple of months have been insane for me due to:
– Couple of nasty illnesses then my family getting them
– A whole bunch of trips
– Massive work project taking up tons of my time
So many little things like that have fallen by the wayside. Hopefully try and get a catchup on that and other things soon.
Kings race to three goals -105
I’m leaning towards a Kings win and was waiting for them to announce Talbot as the starter to fire on this. It’s just a way to get a better price on a Kings victory in my opinion. Kings have struggled to score recently but get a favorable matchup vs Kuemper. If you don’t trust a Kings victory this play won’t interest you.
Kuemper has given up 3 or more goals in his last 4 straight games. In losses that he starts his Save Percentage is .839 with a GAA of 4.49.
Talbot in his 14 wins has conceded just 19 goals against, with a Save Percentage of 95.
Another potential way to get better value if you like a Kings win would be a Washington team total under 2.5 which is priced at -140.
For Goal Scorer Props I’ll be taking bets on 4 Kings at varying levels of risk.
Moore +220 probably the most likely of the 4.
Danault +330
I had three Kings circled as potentially due. Grundstrom and Kaliyev being the other two. I will also be making a play on Grundstrom because he’s being offered at +500. Though unlikely Grundstrom scores I felt the value was good enough for a play.
Doughty +500
Kuemper has given up 6 goals from inside the blue line from Long Range. 39 of Doughtys 64 shots have come from there. 3 of his 7 goals as well so he is capable of converting. He’s currently 12 games without a goal which matches his season high. I would not call him a lock, this is a low confidence play. But looking at Kings D-men I felt like he was the best choice.
Two Ive left off that could score
Kempe has been the hottest king goal score recently. That could continue but with the price he’s going at, and the amount of plays I’m making, taking Kempe would not entice me much and would still result in a loss if the others don’t come thru as well.
Fiala was the other that may score but I opted to go with Moore and Danualt instead.
I increasingly believe that the NHL and NBA are corrupt. There is no analysis, statistics or prediction that makes sense!!