Written by Graeme on Saturday, January 13th, 2024
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Welcome to Saturday.
Not a great comeback night for Oettinger last night. The Stars got absolutely blased by the Preds 6-3, and the Nashville offense was hungry. Glad I stayed off that one although I would have 100% skipped it when I knew he was coming back. Seen so many goalies come back and their form is completely different.
Flyers got the win over the Wild.
Big Saturday slate today as per usual wheee. Man, I just want to sit around and play Slay the Spire. I’ve never played a card game like that before and didn’t think I’d like it – but randomly tried it the other day on Xbox Gamepass and just hooked.
Let’s look at Saturday with SIXTEEN games on the board JFC. Yeah excuse me if there are minimal write-ups for some of these ha.
Capitals vs Rangers:
Easy pass. Rangers offensive prowess should see them get the goals that get the win, but still a low SCGF, inconsistency, and having to take them in regulation makes it a no play.
Senators vs Sharks:
Dear lord. I’m just glad there is another 4pm game AND NFL at the same time as I’ll not be giving this game much viewing attention. Sens are very high favourites. Despite recent results they probably should be. With the defensive metrics, this has a good chance of going over. The problem is the offensive metrics – specifically with the Sharks – is an issue.
I looked at Sens team goals but over 3.5 is only 1.60 and I am not gonna back them for 5 goals here. No bet – and the odds are bad enough not to even consider the over.
Sabres vs Canucks:
Intriguing game. Both teams with high GF/60 and similar xGF/60. GA/60s both above 3 but the xGA/60 is lower.
If the over was 6 in this one I’d probably take it. Just a bit concerned about the SCG stats to go as high as 7, plus both decent xGA.
Panthers vs Devils:
Panthers look to continue their streak. Devils results for the most part have them beating the poorer teams but losing to the better sides. Did just lose on Panthers in regulation the other night which makes me a bit gunshy on them.
Devils – their goaltending is generally letting them down. Their road results are great though.
Jack Hughes meant to be out again. Honestly this is one of those games where I don’t really love the bet – and was looking for enough things to turn me off. But I’m not seeing them. So I’ll begrudingly go with Panthers in Regulation. Like I said – losing that one the other night may be affecting my view of this play and seeing it more negatively.
Ontario: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -128 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/01/13 8:33:44 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Lightning vs Ducks:
Eh. No. Data is only very slightly in Tampas favour anyway.
Leafs vs Avs:
Two very even teams. Avs are scoring a bit more than they should be right now. Just depends if their offense continues to run hot. A slight lean on the Leafs but nothing more.
Canadiens vs Oilers:
Oilers in regulation is just on the threshold. But like I said the other night – Oilers offense seems to be quieting down a bit and it’s concering me. By all accounts they should absolutely blast them here and the data suggests Oilers -1.5 is fine FWIW.
Red Wings vs Kings:
Kings just not a team I have any real interested in backing ATM. These two recently played and Wings for the shootout win. The Wings main issue right now is leaking goals. And they are letting so many shots go against Lyon in a few games that despite his stats, it’s hard to back him.
Very strong lean on the Red Wings but I just can’t quite pull the trigger. Kings have an exceptional road record too. I do wonder with how they lost to the Panthers – that could go both ways. Yeah I can’t back this one. Spent a lot of time on it and I think at best, it’s a “chuck a half unit on it and hope for the best” type of play. Definitely some slight value there.
Jets vs Flyers:
The Jets come roaring in against the Flyers, who are on a B2B. Metrics look fine. Especially that Jets SCGA/60 in the last 10 of just 0.8. Ridiculous.
I assume Ersson starts in net for the Flyers. That’s a concern as he has been playing very well. This play isn’t a “gimmie” by any means – but the Jets have been able to pull out the win in tight games, and hopefully they can do the same here. I’m not an “under” guy but this one has all the makings of it.
Jets in Regulation
Ontario: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -114 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/01/13 8:33:44 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Hurricanes vs Penguins:
Canes generally better in most of the data. Penguins xGF much higher though. Would have to take Canes in regulation and don’t like it enough.
Jackets vs Kraken:
Great road trip so far for the Kraken. I liked them in regulation against the Caps – this one, I’m not feeling it as much. Feel like I’d rather see a bigger xGA for the Jackets. Going to pass.
Wild vs Coyotes:
Nothing for this one.
Blues vs Bruins:
Not enough here to back Bruins in regulation.
Blackhawks vs Stars:
Eh they just had those recent games against each other. Stars on a B2B. I mean Stars should probably win but it would have to be -1.5 and that’s not something I’m going for.
Predators vs Islanders:
Interesting – my rudimentary betting system likes the Islanders here. When I dive into the advanced metrics, not seeing it. It actually points more to the Preds winning – but that B2B is a factor. It’s tough because sometimes with B2Bs the team is tired, other times they carry the momentum. Game I am really curious about, but no bet.
Knights vs Flames:
Flames as dogs here. Knights great 15-4-2 home record. Flames 9-11-4 on the road. But man, the metrics do lean towards a Flames win. The only negative is their xGA/60 but it’s not like the Knights offense is rocking right now.
Adin Hill might play tonight and he could be a much needed game changer for the Knights.
I’m going to roll the dice on the Flames, even if Hill is back. One of those bets where while I think it’s a gamble, I feel I’m getting enough value on it that I won’t be upset if it doesn’t come in.
Flames win incl OT/SO if Markstrom in net
Ontario: 2.20 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.22 Odds at Bovada
USA: +122 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.20 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/01/13 8:33:44 AM EST but are subject to change.)
dude everyone who tries slay the spire says it’s amazing. i still havent tried it because im just not into card games but your like the 15th person who said it rocks lol
Yeah honestly up until 4 days ago if you asked me, I would have said I hate card games. Never really played them etc. I was just bored on my phone looking at touch control games and thought ha I’ll give this a go.
Completely hooked and even if you aren’t into card games I’d recommend giving it a go.
Vancouver 1st period -0.5 +130
With this play I’m going to just try and follow some season long trends that are too difficult to ignore.
Buffalo has been outscored 54-32 in the first period. The home and away numbers are pretty equal as well. 10 of their 20 games at home they’ve been trailing after the first. Being home underdogs helps this play as well.
Buffalo may be without both Thompson and Skinner for this game.
Vancouver tends to get off to quick starts in its games. Vancouver has outscored its opponents 31-18 on the road in the first period.
A couple concerns would be a potential flat spot for Vancouver having been on the road for now their 6th straight game. Also taking them -.5 leaves open a potential draw or scoreless first period which would be a loss on the bet. Draw no bet on Vancouver 1st period is similar to the overall game line of Vancouver -155 and could be a safer way to play it. But I feel like it gives away too much value. If Buffalo wins the first period or Vancouver starts out slow, those -155 odds will certainly come down in live wagering.
The trends are never a guarantee of future results, but I think this one is significant enough. The +130 is good value if the trend continues. Also Thompson has not officially been ruled out and looks like he will be possibly trying to play. I won’t like my bet as much if Thompson does play as it looked like he was starting to hit his stride after being injured earlier in the year.
I was able to find this at a better price of +145 just to update the previous +130 line I quoted before I shopped it.