Written by Graeme on Thursday, January 25th, 2024
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1-0 last night with the Avs covering the spread with ease.
Usual busy Thursday although slightly less than usual which is nice, with 9 games on the board.
Was nice to see Samsonov have a huge game last night and hopefully he can build on that.
Let’s look at todays games:
Lightning vs Coyotes:
Tampa coming in off the big win over Philly. Coyotes just got thumped by the Panthers.
It’s hard not to back Tampa here. Better GF, better xGF, SCG stats etc.
Vasy is confirmed, and I see no real reason not to trust Tampa here. Annoyingly, this one was much better odds when I looked at this earlier in the day at 1.80 odds.
Lightning in Regulation
Ontario: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -130 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/01/25 12:35:56 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Senators vs Bruins:
Hmmmm. By the metrics, Bruins should get the job done and in regulation to boot. Sens do have a much more impressive Corsi & Fenwick though. With Bruins just coming off a streak ending loss, and b eing on the road against a Sens team that is currently performing well? I’ll pass.
Canadiens vs Islanders:
It’s been a torrid time for the Islanders with one regulatiuon win in their last 12 games.
Habs come in on a 3 game losing streak with sone brutal losses after so many close games this year.
The numbers lean towards the Islanders, but on the road and in regulation? No thanks.
Red Wings vs Flyers:
Red Wings coming in after being lit up by the Stars. Flyers on a very bad run at the moment with 3 losses in a row.
I’m not really seeing anything here. Flyers with the slight edge by the data, but negated a bit being on the road plus with the Carter Hart…..situation….I wonder how their heads are at the moment.
Hurricanes vs Devils:
Canes a bit inconsistent last little bit. Devils also a bit all over the place.
By the data, it’s a bit tight with a lean towards the Canes. Devils generally good at scoring. But data suggests Canes can outscore them.
I like the Canes here. Tad concerned with Raanta in net. He can be hot or cold. And the back to back. Ah damn – I actually really want to take the Canes here. I’m just concerned about the B2B, and then the Devils showing all that fight against the Knights coming in to this.
Probably one I’ll regret not taking the Canes here. Often those “red flags” are things that put me off but I’m not feeling that here for some reason. This really is a massive game for the Devils though – arguably the toughest team in the division, them wanting to get a couple of key wins before the all star break.
Damnit I like the Canes here regardless of all that. I’m gonna take it. But hey, I’ve did my due dilligence in outlining all the reasons not to.
Canes in Regulation if Raanta in net
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.02 Odds at Bovada
USA: +102 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/01/25 12:35:56 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Stars vs Ducks:
Not seeing the data to suggest Stars -1.5 here. It’s actually kinda close but their xGF is just too low.
Wild vs Predators:
Wild come in on the back of some wins. Preds a couple of losses. I kinda like the Wild here but their GA/60 and SCGA/60 is such a liability.
Like the Wild, but Preds have solid offensive metrics other than SCGF/60 so could be close.
Oilers vs Blackhawks:
It’s fun coming into games like this and trying to calculate the odds beforehand. You’re like “Man can I go as low as 1.03 is that a thing”?
Oilers are 1.15 which may be the lowest odds I’ve seen. -2.5 is the play if we were to take it. Honestly I probably would if the metrics were overwhelmingly in that favour. As it is they’re about 50/50 and I’d price it at about 50% chance they cover that – which is what the bookies have so no bet.
Flames vs Jackets:
This one swings both ways in the data. More towards the Flames but a couple of wee issues like their defensive metrics. Then coming in off the losses. And the low odds.
Eh. I do kinda like them to right the ship here. Werenski might be back. And looking back at that Jackets/Oilers game I thought the Jackets were unfortunate not to get the goals.
This is an annoying one in that it is similar to the Canes. Regardless of flags, I still want to take it. I’ll pass on this one but man will be mad if the Flames pull it off.
To WIN moneyline: Dallas
Lean: puckline win: Dallas
Parlay helper: Oilers WIN moneyline
Anaheim has lost by the puckline by 6 of its last 7 losses, and the Stars have won by the puckline in 5 of their last 6 wins. Dallas seems to have difficulties dealing with Nashville and back-to-backs and this is neither, and they’re at home. So this is an Elevator Bet, where both are bet, and probably 4X more bet on the moneyline option.
I don’t have 12 hours for this today, most other matchups are either low odds mismatches or not looking good for bets. Maybe O/U or props, but limited time today. Oilers likely win their last 2 games before the break, Calgary has inconsistencies, chance is high that the Oilers could only win by 1 goal, Boston is on the road and Tampa has scared me away for years now. Montreal is weak but the Islanders are inconsistent and the Habs always try.
By the way, no Oilers prop bets today, as on January 9, the Oilers beat Chicago 2-1 while only getting 15 shots on net, against Chicago’s 26. The fans in the stands must have been CRAVING coffee and hot peppers to keep them awake. Now we have the Oilers at home on a mission, using 200-foot defense in a new way that shuts down ALL other teams. Oilers will shut down Chicago and win likely by 2-1 or 3-1, but I do think puckline options are high risk here, as the Oilers will be looking ahead to facing the ambling cowpokes from Johnny Cashland on Saturday before taking their week-long break getting suntans on golf courses and beaches.
I’m going to pass on plays because todays lines puzzled me for the most part. I don’t want to go as far to say they feel like traps, but the lines do feel off. I’m more interested in seeing the results and how these games play out. Usually I’ll put some wagers on them in order to grade them out but today I’ll do so without any actual liability and see if there is something that can be learned from them.
Couple examples
I had Boston -175. They opened -142 and the price has only went down since. I understand the travel and back to back. But you’re still getting a Swayman vs Korpisalo matchup. At the current -135, Boston doesn’t win this game 57 percent of the time?
I had Detroit-140. This is currently Detroit-112. Down from -130 opener. Equally Power Ranked teams and I actually have Detroit 1 percent better. This is saying Philly is significantly better. And no advantage for the home team is odd as well.
I had Carolina-185. This feels high because New Jersey is one of those teams I just keep waiting for to have things start to click and go off on a good streak. However the issues that have plagued them for most the season (health, consistent goaltending) are still glaring issues. The sample size is big enough now and they need to start proving it to be ranked above some of the teams I’ve ranked them above in the past.
Having said all that, the Devils are still not a team I’m usually eager to go against. Carolina’s goaltending doesn’t give me much confidence either. Carolina is on a back to back. Devils need the game more. Carolina opened -155 and that line actually has gone up. I still feel like I’m giving Devils more respect than they currently deserve. At Carolina -162 I’ll pass but this is one I probably should have played and I won’t be shocked by a Carolina home win.
Minnesota -118. This is the toughest one for me to hold back on. I made the Wild -145 and it opened with them at just -120 at home. This is saying if these two teams were in a playoff series, Nashville would be the favorite. That doesn’t feel right too me. I will say maybe I’m not giving enough respect to Nashville. The Wild are like the Devils and even the Penguins and Flames to a certain extent. On paper and potential they should be so much better. But their records have them currently as sub par teams. And thats been tough for me to get a handle on and decide how I should treat them going forward. Do any of those teams have an Oiler style run in them? Maybe not a month straight of winning but hopefully you get my point. I can easily see two weeks of solid play shoot any of those teams up the standings.
Having said all that Wild now sitting at -118 at home vs Nashville. I don’t get it.
Last and Least. As a throw away mention. Can the Blackhawks win tonight’s game more than 18 percent of the time? Probably. I made the Oilers -410 favorites. They opened -600 and actually got some Chicago action briefly dropping to -550. This was all the books were really looking for so they don’t get absolutely killed on Oiler action and parlays. Once the books got their fill, it’s shot back up to Oilers -625. Which is roughly 86 percent. Even if the true odds are Chicago wins 20 percent of the time, making this technically value at +455, you still lose this bet 80 percent of the time. So for a small wager shot maybe worth it but most will probably save themselves the embarrassment of taking Chicago and risk getting killed. Like when the books were offering the Sharks at these prices earlier in the season.
Good luck to everyone who has actual plays on todays card.