Written by Graeme on Thursday, February 8th, 2024
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No tips yesterday, but it was good to see some general normal results after some real weirdness following the All-Star break.
Leafs were able to get back on track and got the win. The Wild suck but are better than the Hawks, and proved it in a close one. And Lightning were the victim of the all-star break. Reminds me of that whole bye week scenario a few seasons ago. Man I just looked that up – that was the 2016-2017 season. That does not feel that long ago.
I still remember that one, because I wrote my usual betting tips where I went 2-1, however I also advised that people bet on the 5 teams that were playing against teams coming off a bye week. All 5 won, making it a 7-1 night.
Some clown actually got furious at me about that, Said that as I bet all 5 based purely on a trend and without any analysis, that it “shouldn’t count”. The gambling world is full of some really weird people.
It’s Thursday, and we have seven games on the board. I’ll be treading carefully due to post all-star break weirdness until I can confirm everything has settled down.
Panthers vs Capitals:
Panthers the victim of the All-Star break, with that loss at home to the Flyers. By the metrics they should win, but it would have to be in regulation and based on their results going back to January 11th, I’m not the biggest fan of it.
Yet despite that, I’m going with it. I don’t know why. Panthers burnt me recently. But I just look at this one and think yep this should be a solid Panthers win. Like I said it’s looked like this before and they blew the spot, against both the Kings and Devils. Third time lucky, I guess.
Panthers in Regulation
Ontario: 1.71 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.71 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -152 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.71 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/02/08 7:57:52 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Flyers vs Jets:
Nothing for this one. Jets are in a tricky spot at the moment and that loss against the Pens wasn’t great. The Jets offensive metrics are not great right now.
Devils vs Flames:
Slightest of leans on the Flames here but not enough to back. They’re not a team I really feel confident backing in general anyway. There’s definitely some value in them as underdogs though.
Bruins vs Canucks:
Tricky game. Bruins with the edge in the metrics. But man, Canucks are a goer and Bruins coming off that brutal Flames loss makes them hard to back. At the 1.74 price, it’s the easiest pass for me.
Islanders vs Lightning:
Tampa on the B2B. They’re the better team here. I can see post All Star break weirdness result in them getting a win actually. Islanders coming in off that Leafs victory. Sergachev being out might band them together.
There’s not enough to advise, but I don’t hate a little value bet on Tampa.
Hurricanes vs Avs:
Metrics make this fairly even and yeah not one I’d really pick. Avs offensive metrics might help them out here as that Rangers game was a bit of an anomly.
With the home/road stats I’ll pass on this one.
Coyotes vs Knights:
Coyotes first game post All Star Break. They went into it with a losing streak. Knights got the nice win over the Oilers to end their streak.
This is one where I am really hoping the data suggests the Knights, as in my head I like this spot for them.
Worse Corsi due to CA, Fenwicks close. SF stats close. GF/GA in their favour. xGF slightly in their favour. SCG stats more in their favour. Knights have quite a low HDCF so if they can create more of those chances that could be good as they are good at converting them.
It’s an interesting one as the odds make it fine to take Knights incl OT/SO. So I guess if that’s a possibility, let’s look at that. Coyotes playing with an empty net have a 2/1 success rate. Knights actually are pretty weak against an EN although who knows how many games that was without Adin. 8/23 they have allowed a goal. Makes it a tad dicey.
If it goes to OT, Knights are above .500. Coyotes too I believe 5 wins outta 8.
At the 1.71 odds, that makes it a bit dicey. I’m going to roll with in regulation instead for what I feel is better value. The Mullett Arena isn’t the fortress that it was for a brief period this season.
Knights In Regulation if Hill In Net
Ontario: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +113 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/02/08 7:57:52 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Lean: full game OVER 6.0: Avs/Canes
Just looking at those matchups, this early after the break, I’m not betting sides, but the O/U and props are still off the table with the “back to action” adjustment. Could be some great games though. I want to see how good Vancouver is in the second half, they might be scary good. Instead of wondering how bad the Flames will get, now it’s time to wonder how very good they can be in the second half. They are now VERY different and MUCH better than the team that ended last season. Tampa is still an unknown entity to me I have great difficulty trusting and Vegas on the road tonight I’m not taking against an opponent they won’t be scared of. They aren’t desperate for points on February 8th. Good luck folks!
Boston -130
I like this spot for Boston. Calgary game aside, their XGF numbers at home before the break were really good. I’m expecting them to get back to that form here and if so, I like their chances tonight. It’s interesting because metric wise, Vancouver seems to be scoring much more than they should. It’s gone on for a decent number of games and I’d think it would have turned a little bit by now.
I liked Florida in this spot and was hoping to get a play on them. However for me the price is just too expensive and has only gone up since. I think Florida gets it done but I can’t justify laying the current price of -270.
I did lean Jets, but there XGF has been low in recent games both overall and on the road. I do think they’ll turn it around soon. But as road favorites, it’s easy for me to pass and find better spots.
Just Boston -130 for me.