Written by Graeme on Friday, February 9th, 2024
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A 2-0 night last night puts me on an awesome 8-0 run. Absolute crushing it. Gotta love it. Been a nice and profitable season thus far, and hopefully it continues after a rocky October start where I went 3-7.
I had the Panthers to beat the Capitals in regulation. Must admit I had written that one up thinking the odds were 1.80, and was second guessing it at 1.71. Thankfully the Panthers got the jobs done.
I also took the Knights in regulation for that extra risk, although the incl OT odds made it playable. Knights got off to a great start, and came out 3-2 winners.
Jets offense continues to struggle. Good to see the Flames get that win as I did feel they had value. Big win for the Bruins there. Avs offense there might a be concern with them going forward.
Let’s look at the three games today:
Wild vs Penguins:
Wild barely beat the Blackhawks as they came out of the all star break. Pens got the solid win over the Jets.
Pens are a decent price at 1.80. Let’s see those metrics as the Pens results haven’t been much to give me confidence. Better Corsi & Fenwick and SF%. GF/GA kinda cancel each other out. Pens better xG but brutal SCGF.
This all depends on the Pens offense and if they can get going again. Was the Jets result part of that? Wild despite a poor GA/60 have a decent xGA/60.
Wild are honoring Fleury tonight which might make them step up their game. Honestly things like that can be a big factor. And looking at the metrics, 1.80 seems about the right price. Yeah this is a hard pass.
Blackhawks vs Rangers:
Rangers come in off a good win over Tampa but they are still struggling with consistency.
I am not taking them at -1.5. If they win in regulation, they DO cover it. But I’d need above 2.00 odds to take that.
Ducks vs Oilers:
Not touching anything involving the Oilers after their run ended.
Leans: full game UNDER 7.0: Rangers/Hawks
full game UNDER 7.0: Oilers/Ducks
Never involved with Pittsburgh games, and Minnesota is also not a healthy angle. The Wild are celebrating Fleury before the game, and self-celebrations before home games often prove to become bad luck regarding the eventual game result. But the Pens are designed to be aloof. It’s a non-Conference game. Recent player interviews out of Minnesota reveal a team dealing with chaos or total mystery, regarding how to fix things. Egads.
Oilers and Rangers “should” win, but when dealing with best/worst extreme matchups, upsets are not rare. What is more consistent is style of play, and the Oilers will likely shut down Anaheim’s offense and hold a lead, as will the Rangers over Chicago, if trends continue. I’m not toying around in the 5.5-range with those matchups.
I have a Rangers 3-1 score line at +1900 to keep me entertained.