Written by Graeme on Sunday, February 25th, 2024
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1-1 yesterday, and an example of why line shopping is important. If you didn’t line shop it would have been a breakeven day. If you did lineshop, it was a miniscule profitable day.
+0.06u may not seem like much, but it all adds up. It usually results in an average of 5-10u in profit per season.
The loss was the Panthers/Capitals and will likely continue to put me off the overs going forward unless the metrics are overwhelmingly in favour of it.
Leafs got the win. It was a tight one but they got the victory. Both them and the Sens were definitely a bit “roll the dice” as I mentioned yesterday.
If you didn’t see it, be sure to check out the Deslauriers / Rempe fight from yesterday. Absolute banger.
It’s Sunday. Let’s get to it:
Devils vs Lightning:
Both teams on a B2B after two tight games. Metrics are very close but actually a slight lean I think on the Devils due to their xGF, SCG. Bookies odds look correct.
Penguins vs Flyers:
Pens coming in off the Habs win but man they are not a team you feel confident in right now. Philly on the back to back after that Rangers game. Metrics have it very bloody close. WIth Flyers on the B2B I’d be hesitant to back them but I don’t want to back the Pens in regulation considering recent results, so it’s a pass.
Jets vs Coyotes:
Jets coming in after barely beating the Blackhawks on Friday. Their offense is still giving me concerns. Coyotes coming in on quite the losing streak. Their offense has got better last three games but their goaltending and defense is abysmal.
I like the Jets but it would have to be -1.5 and with the way their offense is right now, I just can’t trust it.
For reference, expected goals do say it comes in but with a GF/60 of 2.18 over their last 10 I just can’t back that, even with the Coyotes GA/60.
If you’re wondering about empty net stats – Coyotes have conceded 8 out of 22 with an empty net, while the Jets have scored 16 of 38 against an empty net. I always mention those in situations like this as it can be a factor – it’s a strong possibility Jets are up by 1 goal and Coyotes pull their goalie, so it’s worth considering those. If you’re leaning on Jets -1.5, I think the empty net stats are in your favour enough.
Sabres vs Hurricanes:
Canes on the B2B really don’t feel good backing them in regulation there. Sabres metrics aren’t too bad anyway and they could run this one close.
Blackhawks vs Red Wings:
Wings on the b2b after the Blues result. Hawks had a couple of close games lately.
Would have to be Wings in regulation. CF & FF are better, GF% obviously. xGF% is better although I wish Red Wings had a better xGF than 2.71. SCG stats better.
The B2B is concerning but then one of the 2nd leg BTBs the Wings had was against the Hawks on November 30th and they won 5-1 there.
this one is close but just can’t pull the trigger.
Blue Jackets vs Rangers:
Smilar game where I generally like the Rangers, but the B2B situation. Metrics aren’t as overwhelming in the Rangers favour either. They are having a ton of luck in front of net. No bet.
Ducks vs Predators:
Nothing for this one.
Man I hate Sundays.
Units now: +7.72 🥳
This is so stupid, so stupid.
I take Tampa ML @ 2.2 with 1 unit
Maybe one more bet later.
Carolina ML @ 1.71 with 1 unit