Written by Scott on Thursday, March 14th, 2024
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Only 4 game yesterday.
The Blues beat the Kings 3-1 moving the Blues within 6 points of the Knights for the final wild card spot. The Preds beat the Jets 4-2 extending their point streak to 13 games.
Hyman scored a natural hat trick when the Oilers beat the Caps 7-2. Hyman has scored in 10 consecutive home games. The Canucks were up 3-0 but the Avalanche scored 3 of their own to force overtime where they won it 4-3.
A busy night with 12 games.
Sharks vs Penguins Betting Tips:
The Sharks are all but eliminated from the playoffs.
The Pens are 7 points back of the wild card. They have lost their last 4 games.
I would think that the Pens would win this game but with the way they are playing I’m skipping.
Senators vs Blue Jackets Betting Tips:
The Sens won their last game to snap their losing skid at 7 game. The Jackets have lost their last 2 games.
These are the 2 bottom teams in the Eastern Conference so I have no idea who wins.
Islanders vs Sabres Betting Tips:
With the Wings losing on Tuesday the Isles moved back into the wild card. They are 7-3-0 in last 10. On the road they have gone 14-13-5
The Sabres are 6-3-1 in last 10 and 16-17-1 at home. They are 5 points back of these Isles who are in the 8th and final wild card spot.
With the Isles road record I’m reluctant to take them and I can’t back the Sabres. Crucial points on the line so I’m passing.
Panthers vs Hurricanes Betting Tips:
Big game here.
The Panthers are the top team in the Atlantic and the league. The Hurricanes are in 2nd in the Metro, 6 points back of the Rangers and 8 in front of the Flyers.
The Panthers on a 2 game win streak and are 8-2-0 last 10. On the road they have gone 24-8-2.
The Canes are 6-3-1 in last 10 and 21-9-4 at home.
The GA/60 is low for each team. The Canes have better CF numbers, Panthers better SF/60.
Could be a close one.
Rangers vs Lightning Betting Tips:
The Rangers are in 1st in the Metro and are on a 3 game win streak and have gone 20-10-4 on the road.
The Lightning are 4-5-1 in last 10 and are 20-9-4 at home. They’re in the first wild card spot and 8 points back of the Leafs but only 2 points ahead of the Isles who are in 8th.
The Lightning rank better in GPG but the Rangers are better in GAPG.
Rangers better CF, Lightning better CA. Rangers better SF/60, Lightning better SA/60. Lightning better GF/60 and Rangers better GA/60 allowing only 1.59.
I would say the Rangers win this one but the Lightning are in wild card and need points to stay there.
Bruins vs Canadiens Betting Tips:
One of the biggest rivalries in all sports going back almost 100 years.
The Bruins are in 2nd in the Atlantic and 3rd overall. Over last 10 they have gone 4-2-4 and on the road they have gone 17-6-9.
The Habs are 3-5-2 last 10 and 13-17-3 at home. They are 12 points out of the playoff picture.
They have played 3 times already with the Bruins winning twice the last a 9-4 thumping.
The Corsi for is basically the same, shots for and against is close and so are the goals for and against. We would need to take the Bruins in regulation but the stats don’t back it up.
Coyotes vs Red Wings Betting Tips:
The Coyotes are 20 points back of the wild card so their season is basically over. They’re on a 2 game skid, 3-6-1 last 10 and on the road they have gone 10-19-5.
The Wings are slumping and at a horrible time. They have lost 6 in a row and are 18-10-5 at home. They are in 9th with 72 points in 65 games and the 8th place Islanders also have 72 points but have played 64 games.
The Wings need to get their shit together and soon. Against a Coyotes team who hasn’t been very good they could use this to turn things around. On the other side the Coyotes could take on the roll of spoilers and make things tougher for Detroit.
I just can’t back either team here.
Maple Leafs vs Flyers Betting Tips:
The Leafs are in 3rd in the Atlantic and are 7-3-0 last 10 and 19-7-6 on the road. They’re ranked 4th in GPG and 19th in GAPG.
The Flyers are in 3rd in Metro, 5-4-1 last 10 and 17-13-3 at home. They rank 23rd in GPG and 11th in GAPG.
The Flyers haven’t played that well at home but they do have better numbers in Corsi, shots for and against but the Leafs score more over last 10.
I find Leafs games so tricky to try and predict as they have games they should win but just don’t show up and games the should lose but look incredible.
Devils vs Stars Betting Tips:
The Devils are 6 points back of the wild card spot but their play of late has been terrible. They are on a 2 game skid and are 3-7-0 in last 10 and 16-13-2 on the road.
The Stars are in 1st in the Central with 89 points but the Jets are right behind them with 87 points and have 3 games in hand. They are 6-3-1 last 10 and 19-9-4 at home.
The Stars need to win against struggling teams like this to try and stay ahead of the Jets.
The Devils have better Corsi numbers but the Stars have better goals for and against. Each game for the Devils from here until seasons end is a big game.
Ducks vs Wild Betting Tips:
The Ducks just got beat by the Blackhawks 7-2 which wad a bad loss. They are 28 points out of the playoffs and are playing for pride at this point although their play doesn’t show that.
The Wild are 17-12-5 at home, 6-3-1 in last 10 and are 6 points behind the Knights for the wild card. Their schedule for the rest of the month is favorable for them with the Ducks and Sharks coming up.
Would need to take the Wild -1.5 and I’m not seeing enough to back it up. If odds were better even for regulation I’d take it but that’s not the case.
Golden Knights vs Flames Betting Tips:
The Knights picked up a win in their last game but just barely in overtime. They have won 2 straight but are 3-6-1 in last 10 and are in 8th in the West. On the road they have gone 15-13-5.
The Flames have lost the last 3 games in a row and are 10 points back of the team they are playing. They’re 6-4-0 last 10 and 16-15-1 at home
I want to take the Knights but the stats don’t really help that.
Capitals vs Kraken Betting Tips:
The Caps played last night and lost 7-2 to the Oilers. They are 3 points back of the Isles.
The Kraken are 9 points back of the wild card. They are on a 2 game skid and have gone 14-12-6 at home. They’re 28th in GPG and 8th in GAPG.
With the Caps playing last night and the Kraken on a 2 game skid and their home record I’m passing.
Units now: +14.75 🥳
Panthers ML* @ 2.05 with 1 unit
Did I say 1 unit? No, no, no. Now 10 units Haha.
Tampa Bay -105
This could be a good spot for Tampa. This will be the Rangers third game in 4 days, and their second on the road. They’ve won 3 straight including a shutout of 2nd place Carolina last game out.
The look ahead for the Rangers is a pretty brutal schedule as well. Saturday 3PM afternoon game at Pittsburgh, followed by a Sunday even earlier 1PM start time vs rival Islanders. On deck after one day rest will be Winnipeg, then Boston, Florida, Philadelphia, and Colorado without much rest between these games. They finally close out the month of March at Arizona.
A theory I’ve had and am contemplating will be to take the draw after regulation for the Rangers in a lot of these matchups. My reasoning is, while first place isn’t guaranteed for the Rangers, at least 2nd place almost certainly is. Could the Rangers look at some of these tough games, and play a certain style that conserves energy and look to get at least a point, rather than go all out and risk losing four or five of these contests outright? Rangers focus should be hoping the Penguins continue to be lack luster for a hopefully easy two points, and then going all out to beat the Islanders and Flyers. For the rest of those games a point here and there should be sufficient enough. So why exactly would their focus be on exerting energy vs a non division Tampa team on four days rest?
Getting to Tampa, realistically their only chance is a wild card spot. And while I’m not a big fan of auto betting the team that “needs” the game, the motivations of both teams is tough to ignore.
The biggest concern to me for this play is the most obvious. And that would be the goaltending. Shesterkin has been great while Vasilevskiy continues to underperform. Tampa will not be able to overcome Shesterkin’s recent form if Vasilevskiy does not at least raise his level for this contest. Shesterkin could steal this game, and Vasilevskiy could lose this game on his own just as well.
While plausible, it’s not enough to keep me off this play on Tampa Bay. The line is currently set at Tampa -105. I’m hoping this can come down to at least even or better. If not, I’ll still take Lightning at the -105 price.
Tampa Bay -105