Written by Graeme on Thursday, April 11th, 2024
Follow @BetNHL
The regular season is winding down, and this is now my last few days of tipping the regular season.
I’m here Thursday through Sunday, then Scott will carry us to the end of the season.
If you’re not familiar with it – for the playoffs, we both give our individual opinions. We’ll cover each series, and then each Game 2 onwards.
I always enjoy it as it’s less about stats and metrics, and more about watching hockey and making decisions based on that.
At least this time of the year is easy – so many games it’s easy not to touch. I’m more interested in The Masters this weekend anyway.
Let’s look at todays:
Panthers vs Jackets:
Would have to be Panthers -2.5. Nothing there. With their last couple of games not interested in the over.
Penguins vs Red Wings:
Pens been playing well. These two met on the 17th and Pens blasted them 6-3. Both teams still in the playoff hunt. Pens doing the better job of it.
With everything on the line, and the Pens rolling, I think it’s fine to take them here. Detroit have blown their chances and just don’t look like a playoff team while the Pens do. A lot of weaker opponents on this run but also some top quality performances.
I’m good with Penguins in Regulation. They just look like they can get the job done. Even if it’s close, Pens are a BEAST against an empty net with a 20 out of 33 success rate. Phenomenal.
Ontario: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +110 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/04/11 8:22:15 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Leafs vs Devils:
Just played.
Lightning vs Senators:
Tampa looking to roll i nto the playofs strong. Couple of blips in there but some excellent performances and nice to see them still perform against the likes of the Jackets.
Data is a little bit iffy with the Sens a better xGF, but Stamkos is crushing it at the moment, and it does look like Tampa are taking every game seriously. Sens conversion against Panthers was bad. stutzle is expected to be back which is good for Ottawa, but have to think Tampa keep rolling.
Lightning in Regulation if Vasy in net
Ontario: 1.78 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.78 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -125 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.78 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/04/11 8:22:15 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Rangers vs Flyers:
Rangers probably win but that game on the 26th looming in my head, easy to pass.
Sabres vs Capitals:
Nothing. Lean on Buffalo at a quick glance.
Islanders vs Canadiens:
Islanders on a nice little run but not enough for me to back them here.
Stars vs Jets:
Stars crushing it but Jets resurgence. Interesting game and one I’m happy to pass on.
Kraken vs Sharks:
Kraken look good for the W but eh -1.5 no thanks. Metrics don’tb ack that up enough primarily due to Krakens GF & SCGF.
Kings vs Flames:
Nothing here even if it does look like the Flames have completely given up. Still a better xGF.
Strategy: wouldn’t the Rangers rather play the Islanders in the first round instead of Tampa? (taking on Washington would be fine). Then again they’re looking very tuned up and ambitious and if so, will not want to monkey with great chemistry, focus and momentum. I can see the Rangers taking the night off here against a team in an imploding nosedive, but they’d have to deliberately lose every remaining game to assure Carolina takes the lead of the Division. So can’t see it happening on that account. Whatever the mix of considerations, the Rangers probably don’t put on a serious show tonight and the Flyers do show up in a total caffeinated panic (whatever that means this season). I figure that means an OVER 5.0 without a doubt. It will be an aerobic workout.
I think the Islanders are worth the moneyline bet here, they could make great use of a few more points, and Montreal lets in goals. Montreal will score one or two, but the Islanders have been putting on great defense the last while and when not on a back-to-back or against a top team, they do the required damage they want to. Montreal also gets into penalty trouble and the Islanders don’t. Islanders are better rested with the recent schedule comparison vs Montreal.
I’m off the Detroit/Pens game, but there are many stats that indicate Detroit has a very good chance of winning here, including shots, penalties, powerplay goals, and every reason in the book to show up sparked and aggressive tonight. I’m considering Detroit at +1.5. This is their moment of youth to go animal on a team that has been fading for years and can’t pretend a couple weeks of wins is their “real” identity. The Pens are not a powerhouse the gray-beard commentators are paid to say they are.
Leafs face something of a meaningless game. Very dangerous to bet on.
LA certainly has a few great players, but as a team I wouldn’t trust LA to have any performance integrity, and the Flames have a lot of talent that should have a great season next year, after the many disruptive changes and dramas they went through this year. The Flames just aren’t tuned up yet, maybe it’s too early? No bet.
Canadians +201 ML, -129 +1.5 and NYI U3.5 -104 tonight. NYI have lost 3 of 4 to Montreal. Islanders are rolling on a Win Streak but not necessarily dominating. Pressure, Patrick Roy from Montreal, a small cushion in pts and I think the NYI have a chance for a mis-step. They are priced for perfection.
DISCLAIMER:
Don’t bet with real money on my opinions.
I’m a stupid better, who wastes tons of units to gain minimal profits.
I take Tampa ML @ 1.55 with 30 units
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AuIKwMGsNlU
😊😊