Written by Graeme on Saturday, April 20th, 2024
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Welcome to the NHL playoffs.
I’ve been waiting probably a month to write that. Boy, it feels good.
After a profitable regular season, I’m looking forward to diving right into the NHL playoffs. But first, I want to quickly explain how we handle things for any new people reading.
For each round, we skip Game 1 and instead cover the series as a whole. We give our series prediction, then we look for a bet that makes sense based on that.
Following Game 1, we then cover the individual games for the rest of the series.
We don’t discuss picks at all during the playoffs. We both come up with our own opinions, and we strive to have a bet each game, even if it’s just resorting to a player prop or something.
Let’s get on with covering the two NHL series which begin on Saturday, April 20th 2024:
Hurricanes vs Islanders Series Betting Tips:
Scott: The season series between these teams was tied with 2 wins each.
The Canes are a deep team and possibly the deepest. Up front they have Aho, Guentzel, Svechnikov, Jarvis, Necas, Teravainen, Kuznetsov, Kotkaniemi and Noesen. On defense they have Burns, Slavin, Skjei, Orlov and DeAngelo. The only question I have for this team is in goal. Andersen was great but dealt with some injuries this season. Kochetkov was decent in his absence.
This Isles team was all over the place in the standings this season. Offensively they are led by Barzal, Horvat, Nelson, Lee and Palmieri. On defense they have Dobson, Pulock, Reilly and Romanov. As you can see, the Canes are deeper and better at those two aspects. One place the Isles are strong though is in goal. They have Sorokin and Varlamov who both could be starters on 90% of the teams in the league.
I just think with the additions the Canes made at the deadline they are a team to be feared.
Hurricanes in 6 or Hurricanes -1.5 which is slightly below our threshold but its close enough
Ontario: 1.67 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.67 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -155 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.65 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2024/04/20 11:27:05 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: For each series, I will be focusing primarily on the advanced metrics as basis for my picks. A combination of head to head metrics, as well as pulling data from a few specific parts of the season that I feel closely relate to the playoffs. My write-ups will generally be shorter than Scotts due to this but he does a fantastic job of covering all the general information needed so I’d only be repeating myself.
That proved successful last year, as I went 6-2 with two of the wins being over 2.00 odds which was nice, including that sweet call of the Kraken +1.5 against the Avs.
So I’m going to be straight up with you all here – I was working on this one last night, hoping to get it posted a night in advance, and I was all over the place. You should see my notes. It reminds me of this:
The big thing for me is goaltending. From all the data I have crunched, I feel like goaltending for the Canes is a massive factor. I’m thinking if Freddie is in (which looks possible considering practise yesterday), they should be set, no problem. If however, Kochetkov is in, I think that could be a problem basing it off the way the Islanders lit him up this season.
And the Hurricanes odds are just insane. It’s very hard to find a bet on them.
So I’m going to go with Islanders +1.5. I honestly lost my way with the data, and couldn’t tell you if I even feel it is +EV or not.
Ontario: 2.35 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.35 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +125 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.35 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/04/20 11:27:05 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Bruins vs Maple Leafs Series Betting Tips:
Scott: The Bruins swept the season series 4-0.
This will be the 4th time these teams have played in the 1st round in the last 11 years. The Bruins won the series in 7 games in 2013, 2018 and 2019.
The Leafs have one of the best offenses in the league with Matthews, Marner, Tavares, Nylander, Bertuzzi, Domi, Knies and Robertson. The line shuffling Keefe did helped them from loading all the best on the top two lines. On defense they have Reilly, Brodie, McCabe, Lybushkin, Edmondson and Liljegren. Also Giordano is a fantastic 7th defenseman. In goal they get by thanks to the Samsonov and Woll. Should either struggle they have Jones and Murray is needed.
The Bruins were supposed to have a bad season after losing Bergeron and Krejci but those losses didn’t slow them down at all. They are led by Pastrnak, Marchand, Coyle, Zacha and DeBrusk. They have some good depth players with Maroon, van Riemsdyk, Frederic and Geekie. On defense they have McAvoy, Carlo, Lindholm, Shattenkirk and Grzelcyk. One place the Bruins have an advantage is in goal where Swayman and Ullmark have been great.
The Bruins last two games to end the regular season were bad. For their sake I hope the time off gave them time to fix their issues.
I personally want the Leafs to win and after last year when they finally got past the 1st road they may build off of that but the Bruins always seem to have the Leafs number. Looking back at previous meetings in the 1st round the Bruins had home ice advantage and those series went 7 games.
Over 5.5 games is my pick. Odds for that are bad though so after getting past the first round last year I can see the Leafs building off of that so I’ll go with Leafs to win the series
Ontario: 2.05 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 2.05 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: +105 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.05 Odds at Intertops.
(Odds correct as of 2024/04/20 11:27:05 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: What a season it’s been for the Bruins. I would not have expected this from them that’s for sure. Very impressive unit and they finished 7 points above the Leafs.
Both teams finished the season on sour notes. Mentally though, I feel the Bruins are the ones that can collect themselves better.
Looking at the games in the regular season, the Bruins did a great job at stifling the Leafs chances. And even when the Leafs were able to convert, Boston did the job. Metrics wise, Boston were very impressive.
Leafs have a ridiculous team. But the playoffs always ends up being a nightmare for them. I worry about the Leafs mentally going into this, plus their past history.
I’m going to go with Bruins to win the series simply due to how they handled Toronto. I foresee many “the NHL is rigged” texts from my friends over the next week.
Ontario: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -120 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/04/20 11:27:05 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Good comments, Graeme and Scott!
I think the Canes take the series, but I want to see Game 1 before I attempt to judge how long the series goes, or the style of play, thinking of Over/Under. Islanders have been playing very well, and they’ll know they’re the underdogs for the series, so I expect them to play their hearts out here, and new things can show up in the playoffs when players throw off fear or hesitation and crank up the manic ambition for 60 minutes.
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As for the Leafs/Bruins, I think we have two teams with high scoring potential. I’m curious to see if the Over options look good in this series. Style of play; I’ll be looking at previous contests and playoff series between these two teams.
I never bet on Game 1 of Round 1, because both teams are usually taking a game to essentially wake up to the new reality of playoff hockey conditions and strategies, and results flip-flop in series so often, and so many Visitors have won Game 1 in the past, that it’s got that element of chaos to it I don’t want to play around with.