Written by Graeme on Tuesday, April 23rd, 2024
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It was a battle, but the Leafs got that all-important first win in the series yesterday, at a nice 2.23 price, to tie the series up against the Boston Bruins.
The Canes had a massive third period to beat the Islanders 5-3, and that’s got to be crushing for NYI. Scott called the Canes in regulation, and I took the under on saves by Freddie – but that was a frustrating one as he wasn’t announced till late, so it took forever for the sportsbooks to get the odds up and you likely missed it.
The Knights got a massive win in Dallas, and now I hate that series bet. Game 2 is so bloody crucial there and I could see a sweep if they don’t win that.
Oilers and Kings went nuts out there and had an 11 goal thriller. Fun one and hopefully see more of that this series.
Now we can settle down and cover just the games with each series having started yet. Thank F for that. It’s such a lot of extra work finding the best odds for different handicaps and all that.
As a reminder – our game bets don’t factor in our series bets at all.
Rangers vs Capitals Game 2 Betting Tips:
Scott: Rempe opened the scoring in game 1 and it was the spark that the Rangers needed as they scored two more shortly after. The crowd loved it too which got them into the game.
The Rangers outshot the Caps 15-6 in the 3rd and they held Ovechkin without a shot on goal all game.
I just don’t see the Caps having what it takes to win this series and with game 2 still in New York I like the Rangers chances.
Rangers win in regulation is what I want to tip but the odds for that are only 1.66 it’s just under our minimum but I think it’s close enough.
Rangers in regulation
Ontario: 1.66 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.66 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -157 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.66 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/04/23 9:24:54 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: It was a torrid time for the Caps offense in game 1. An xGF of just 2.3 is brutal. Granted over the course of the season they only had a 2.6 xG. IThe more I look at this one, the more I am regretting that Caps +2.5 line.
I’m thinking the Caps play more aggressively offensively here, and that should open the game up. I’m on Over 5.5 Goals
Ontario: 2.05 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 2.05 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: +105 Odds at GT Bets.
Everyone Else: 2.05 Odds at GT Bets.
(Odds correct as of 2024/04/23 9:24:54 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Panthers vs Lightning Game 2 Betting Tips:
Scott: It was 2-1 Panthers when they scored an empty net goal with about 2 minutes left. Stamkos scored a powerplay goal with 10 seconds left but the Panthers won 3-2.
It was a good and close game. The Panthers should build off of winning against the Lightning in the playoffs which isn’t something they do often. In 2021 the Lightning won the series 4-2 and in 2022 they swept them outscoring the Panthers 13-3 in that series.
Game 1 was a close one and I want to take the Panthers here but it would need to be in regulation and I’m not sure I can do that. No Bet.
Graeme: The 5 vs 5 advenced metrics make th is almost a 50/50 split. Panthers miniscule better xG and HDCF, and Tampa better Fenwick. Panthers do take the edge drastically when we factor in all the other situations though with a lethal xGF of 4.12.
So that’s a concern – Tampa have to be wary of that when it comes to penalties. It was close enough in 5 vs 5, and the odds are nice enough, that to me Lightning win incl OT is a decent value bet.
Ontario: 2.50 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 2.60 Odds at GT Bets.
USA: +160 Odds at GT Bets.
Everyone Else: 2.60 Odds at GT Bets. or 2.50 at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/04/23 9:24:54 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Jets vs Avs Game 2 Betting Tips:
Scott: The Jets looked good in game 1. It was tied 3-3 after the 1st and the Jets scored the next 3 goals to take a 6-3 lead. The Avs outscored the Jets 3-1 after that but the Jets held on for the 7-6 win.
Both teams left the goalies in for the whole game so maybe that’s a sign of the confidence these teams have in their backups.
The Avs can’t afford to go down 2-0 in the series and will want to tie it up before heading to Colorado for games 3 and 4.
Avalanche win incl OT
Graeme: What a Game 1. I said yesterday that there’s a strong chance we see a dull game in Game 2 as it seems to happen that way. Well I think the bookies agree as despite the insane scoring, this one is set as only over 6.
Avs were the better team by FAR in the metrics for that one. I’m happy to back them here based on that. I will say that I am very concenred about the goaltending. An xGA of 1.96 makes that brutal. I just have to hope the Avs can make the right defensive changes to sort that out.
Avs win incl OT
Ontario: 1.91 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.91 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -110 Odds at GT Bets.
Everyone Else: 1.91 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/04/23 9:24:54 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Canucks vs Predators Game 2 Betting Tips:
Scott: The Canucks were down 2-1 after the 2nd but scored 3 times in the 3rd, including an empty net goal, and won 4-2.
The was a close game and the empty net makes it seem like a bigger win than it was. The shots were super close with the Preds outshooting the Canucks 22-21.
The Canucks have to see how close game 1 was and can’t go to Nashville for 2 games with the series tied at 1.
Canucks win in regulation
Graeme: Advanced metrics wise, it was fairly close as well however the Canucks do have the edge in basically every category. 52.38 CF%, FF 51.90%, xGF% is 51.59. Examples of how close that was.
It makes this a very tricky one. If this was the regular season, I’d probably pass as I dont think the odds are good enough. But hey it’s the playoffs and I strive to bet every game if I can so let’s get crazy. Have to think too that emotions would affect Vancouver more in that game, and they’ll be more level-headed in this one.
Canucks in Regulation – WITH DEMKO OUT THIS PLAY IS NO LONGER ADVISED
Ontario: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +104 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/04/23 9:24:54 AM EST but are subject to change.)
I hate to seem like one of those “masters of the bleeding obvious”, but I also have to admit when I just don’t see something clearly.
Avs/Jets full game OVER 5.5
Winnipeg will want to improve it’s defensive system against the Avs, and has the ability to do so, and still has their great scoring talent and depth. The Avs will want to improve their defense, but how? The Avs offense is a given, it’s their bread and butter. They can’t turn it off. When they don’t produce on offense, they have zilch to back it up. That should shift the Over/Under equation to reduce goals down from the 7-6 spectacle we saw, but I can’t see this suddenly dropping to a 3-2 score. The game results of these two teams, as a matchup and their own track records, say this gravitates to 6 with a lot of certainty, with any remaining pressure upwards. I think the possibility of a 5 total is very unlikely, with that list of offensive talent on the ice.
Rangers win moneyline. Can’t see anything else except I’m wondering about the puckline. Washington can’t seem to get more than two goals in many games (only once in their last 10 games!), and the Rangers will insist on leaving town with the 2-0 series lead.
I’d only consider a prop for the Tampa/Florida game, they’re going to wear each other down, and if Florida takes penalties, as is their style, Tampa will collect a win. But not too certain here.
Nashville and Vancouver each need to more clearly show what they are right now, before I can see a way ahead, apart from perhaps a player prop.
Wow, congrats to Toronto. They really derserved that win. 2 of their goals were even disallowed. I don’t know why, but in most matches I watched the team with disallowed goals wins in the end.
DISCLAIMER:
Don’t bet with real money on my opinions.
I’m a stupid better, who wastes tons of units to gain minimal profits.
Units now: -2
max combined units used to win a bet: 0
Holy moly, Winnpig vs Colorado. I don’t think they will play over 6 today. The goalies were a bit leaky. I expect Colorado to step up in their defense and out shooting Winnipeg again. Also I expect Winnipeg to step up in their defense. With 46 shots of the Avs in the last game, I see them winning here today.
I take Colorado ML @ 1.8 with 4 units.
Would love to have more time to look into the games to find a real value bet, but I had three rushed plays I made last night. Don’t really feel great about any of them. I did get the best numbers on all three for what it’s worth, so at least there’s that.
Rangers -1.5 +102.
This might be too agressive, but Washington’s inability to score and certain game style they need lends itself to a potential puckline loss for them. Dunno if Sandin or Jensen will be back for this game. If they are back and healthy enough that hurts the bet a bit. If they are out again, I really like the Rangers to win comfortably. At what point does Washington go eff it, this isn’t working? I don’t think it’s until they get home for game 3, or late into this game.
I did have an initial lean towards Washington Tom Wilson to record a point at +110. I liked the value. All eyes will be on Ovechkin and the narrative will be how he was held to 0 shots. I do think he could be a factor. However the lines will be priced accordingly. Wilson needs to be the guy to get involved offensively for the Caps, and he doesn’t need to score to do so. But is capable. Still undecided if I trust this one enough though.
Colorado -112
This one is a little similar to Toronto but not quite. Colorado dominated the game one metrics on the road like Toronto, but couldn’t get the result. A similar game metric wise could see the Avs evening the series. Avs do have a goaltender issue though, so that’s a concern. Also unlike Toronto, who I was able to get +130, Colorado was -112 when I grabbed them. If I’m being honest, I still believe Jets should be a home favorite, so this was a bit of a reach. Colorado is now -120 and higher, so it wasn’t the worst of the number, but we are now reaching borderline value on Jets as home dogs and with the goaltender advantage. The metrics for Colorado were too overwhelming though so I’ll live with taking the Avs to tie the series.
Nashville +136
Was able to grab Nashville at the underdog price, and now with the news on Demko, glad I did. I do think Vancouver could potentially use it as their own motivation and rally around DeSmith, but it is a drop off. And Demko made some great game changing saves in Game 1. Nashville had the lead late, and played a really solid game in my opinion. Besides a 12 second span they had a chance to win. The focus should be on everything they did right. Wasn’t impressed wit Saaros but he could bounce back. Regardless of the result, I like the price I got this at with Demko out and the way Nashville played game 1.
Recap of bets
Rangers -1.5 +102
Colorado-112
Nashville +136