Written by Graeme on Sunday, May 5th, 2024
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As is tradition, the Toronto Maple Leafs are eliminated from the Stanley Cup playoffs via a game 7.
The Boston Bruins will now take on the Florida Panthers, with Game 1 tomorrow. That’s going to be an interesting one. I had a quick glance at the metrics last night, and gotta say if one team can handle that Panthers offense, it looks like it could e Boston.
I’ll look at it in more detail before the write-up tomorrow, but Boston at 2.50 is looking quite juicy.
We have the Rangers vs Hurricanes series staarting off this afternoon, then the final Game of the first round.
Rangers vs Hurricanes Series Betting Tips:
Scott: The Rangers swept the Capitals in the 1st round.
It was an impressive showing but we have to wonder if it really was when we see the team they were playing. The Caps were banged up and couldn’t get Ovechkin going.
Either way the Rangers did look good. Zibanejad had 7 points, Trochek 6, Roslovic and Lafreniere had 4. Throw in Panarin and Kreider and this team is for sure stacked. Shesterkin looked great when he needed to be.
The Canes beat the Isles in 5 games.
They had a bunch of players contributing. Jarvis had 7 points, Necas and Svechnikov both had 5, Guentzel, Kuznetsov and Teravainen all had 4. Noesen, Kotkaniemi and Aho helped but still have another level to find.
I just think the way this team is built is impressive and this should be a great series.
With either team having any troubles in the 1st round they will both be rested for the start of this series. I just like the way the Canes look and the moves they made at the deadline. Plus the Capitals weren’t a real challenge for the Rangers yet they didn’t dominate them and they will find this series much tougher than the last.
Canes win series.
Ontario: 1.75 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 1.75 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -155 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.75 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2024/05/05 9:23:28 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: Alrighty – let’s look at the data. They played three times during the regular season. Rangers stifled the Canes twice which is interesting. Canes xGF was actually quite low in those games. Over the course of the regular season, Canes had an xGF/60 of 3.41. Against the Rangers, they had 2.64, 2.62 and 3.36. Even the Corsi/Fenwick metrics are very close which is rare for the Canes who are always a metrics juggernaut.
So based just on that, I am liking the Rangers, who also have home ice. What about the playoffs themselves? Obviously, two different opponents. Canes have been the more impressive team advanced metrics wise, but the Rangers goalscoring was clinical, with an excellent 3 SCGF/60.
Honestly I would have Rangers as underdogs for sure – but not as high as they are. I’d go for about 2.20 myself. I also have a couple of concerns about the metrics from the Canes road games – specifically, Game 3.
I think Rangers to win Series is an +EV bet.
Ontario: 2.35 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.40 Odds at Bovada
USA: +140 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.35 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/05/05 9:23:28 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Stars vs Knights Game 7 Betting Tips
Scott: The Knights won the last game snapping the Stars win streak at 3 games and have e forced a game 7.
After he took the loss in game 5 Hill bounced back and picked up the 23 save shutout.
With the Knights going 2-1 in Dallas, ending their win streak and having Hill have a strong game I would think the Knights have a good shot here. I picked them to win the series so I’m going with that.
Knights win incl OT.
Ontario: 2.30 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.35 Odds at Bovada
USA: +135 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.30 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/05/05 9:23:28 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: Props to Scott for being able to back something here because I am really unsure.
Looking at the overall metrics for the series – Stars have still been the better team. In some aspects its close, but really the one factor is the Stars inability to score compared to what they are creating.
If we take all the data in a vacuum, I’d lean Stars. But they are way too heavily favoured and it’s so tight I don’t trust them in regulation.
In short: Stars have been the better team. It all boils down to if they can actually score as that has been their overall issue.
No Bet
I almost fell out of my chair when the overtime started yesterday, because the Leafs were slow, not displaying much initiative and not keeping up their checks. Boston was much more easily controlling the puck than in the first 60 minutes, and connecting passes with open skating lanes. Then a big red light went on and a man in a striped jacket told people to go home for pizza. Some of the Leafs had an outstanding series though, like Domi, Nylander, Tavares, Matthews was sharp, their goalies, and a few more were very effective. Leafs should have a great season next year.
Full game UNDER 6.0: Vegas/Dallas
Who’s going to score goals? Checking is extremely tight and protecting the action around the nets has D and forwards throwing themselves in front of passes and shots, so goals are way down now.
I need to see Game 1 of the Canes/Rangers series before I can figure what’s going on. High talent, it should be great hockey. There’s too much offensive power for me to risk taking the Under at this point. Will the low scoring of other series be duplicated here?
My impression so far remains that the west takes the Stanley Cup this year. I have to think Colorado can wipe the ice with any of the eastern teams, and if the Oilers prevail, they would too. Speed, goals, strong D, and extreme talent with depth, and the experience levels to sustain their motivation and effort.
My lean would be Dallas and the under. But I’m not seeing value in the lines. The script will be which team can get the High Danger shots. Both teams have prevented many Mid and Low Danger goals. Dallas has had the better of the High Danger shots battle in four of the six games. Last game out was Vegas best, holding Dallas to just 3. I expect Dallas to recognize that and bounce back. Try and put more pressure on Hill.
With all that said, I think Vegas has no panic in them. I think Dallas has the better talent, but Vegas can take advantage of the situations if Dallas starts shaky.
With game 7 and everything elevated the first instinct is to take unders. But they are heavily juiced. So perhaps taking super low alternate for the better prices. So what about 0-0 first period +300. And a full game alternate Under 4.5 at +200? It won’t take much to blow up the bets, but a certain game script can lead to two decent payouts. I’ll think I’ll roll the dice with those.
As far as the Rangers, it might be the fandom, but I have to take them as -105 Home Underdogs for Game 1. My biggest worry was always they had the easiest path first round. Washington was not a playoff team. After playing them the last two weeks, will they get a bit of a shock now having to play an actually talented and dangerous team. Also, how bad is Fox injury after the knee on knee in the last game? If he’s compromised, it’ll be an issue. Rangers obviously won’t let on, so eye test will tell us a lot.
However getting Rangers game 1 Underdog feels like a blind bet situation for me. If Rangers can’t take Game 1 and lose Home Ice advantage right out of the gate, they put themselves in a precarious position right out of the gate. It’ll be important for them to hold serve at home and not drop Game 1. Getting them as an underdog makes it a value play for me personally.
These aren’t metric driven bets. More just situational plays based on potential game scripts.
Rangers -105
Vegas vs Dallas first period no score +300
Vegas vs Dallas alternate total Under 4.5 +200
I’ll be interested in your takes on the Boston vs Florida series. Without having looked at metrics myself, my initial lean was Florida. I’ve just been so impressed by their team defense during the season and even first round of the playoffs. I don’t think Boston has the firepower and depth to crack it on a consistent basis and beat this team 4 times.But my opinion also isn’t set in stone, and could be heavily influenced by what I’ve seen during the regular season.