Written by Graeme on Monday, May 27th, 2024
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It was a tight one yesterday, and a 9 goal thriller, but the New York Rangers pulled off the all-important victory to take the series lead against the Florida Panthers.
On Saturday, the Dallas Stars got the 3-1 win over the Oilers.
Tonight, we have the Edmonton Oilers hosting the Dallas Stars.
I’ve been enjoying watching the Memorial Cup. That Knights-Voltigeuers game was a fun one. I think they could have played six more periods and Drummondville still wouldn’t be able to score. If you have a chance, check out some of the games. Some really fun hockey, and for the most part not one where you’re sitting cursing referee decisions for a large part of the game.
Oilers vs Stars Game 3 Betting Tips:
Scott: The Stars won game 2 3-1 to even the series up.
Marchment scored for the first time since the first game of the playoffs. Draisaitl was held pointless which snapped his point streak at 13 games.
The Oilers penalty kill is playing great as they have killed off the last 20 penalties. They can’t seem to draw many penalties which has been brought up by coach Knoblauch.
This is going to be a close series. With Marchment scoring that will help give the Stars some depth if he can continue. I would like to take them to win this game as their road record has been much better than their home. But the Oilers have also been good at home. I’m skipping this game.
Graeme: So this game changes venues. The Oilers are favourites at about 1.76 odds. Anything interesting from the metrics in the playoffs in regard to home/away?
From the Oilers perspective – not really. I mean generally better home metrics but that’s stanadard and nothing really jumping out. Stars actually – 4 of their best 5 offensive metric performances are on the road. Actually some really good stats overall on the road.
They were a beast on the road in the regular season and seem to continue to be in the playoffs. Oilers were much better at home.
I lean Dallas here, but I’d like some more value than 2.10 unfortunately. It’s hard to bet against Edmonton at home and I can’t do it at this price.
Now the Over 5.5 is a bit more interesting. Oilers offense do generally come alive a bit more at home. Stars on the road can get the goals. And I think with the venue change, we see some different styles in this series.
I’m going to roll the dice on Over 5.5 Goals. The atmosphere at Rogers Place will be a heck of a lot louder and that should get things going as well. Honestly there’s not a ton of data to really support this – more just a gut play and hopeful thoughts.
Ontario: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -115 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.86 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/05/27 6:36:55 AM EST but are subject to change.)
The trend seems to be for lower scoring late in the playoffs. I can’t spring for O/U on 5.5. I think it could go 5-3 or 2-1, both equally possible. That also makes picking a player prop related to points, high risk. Oilers will have home ice advantage in terms of energy from fans. Maybe Draisaitl at Over 2.5 shots? Seguin for the same thing? Shots will be taken, that’s somewhat dependable.
I also looked at 2nd Period OVER 1.5 goals, but betting by going against the lower goal trend isn’t likely for me. During the regular season, those stats would show up more reliably.
Couldn’t land on anything with the stats being somewhat contradictory. But both Dallas Road xGA and Edmonton’s Home xGA are pretty impressive. Though both offenses are obviously extremely impressive as well. Also just because the xGA’s have been low, it hasn’t exactly translated into low scoring games. And I have difficulty trusting Skinner, assuming he gets the start.
To go along with Dallas Road offense, xGF Over 3 in 5 of their 6 road games and Over 5 in 3, their defense has been impressive to me as well. Dallas is yet to allow more than 2 goals against in any road game. They have however allowed an xGA Over 3 in two games, so this could balance out if Edmonton can get to that important number.
Edmonton has only had an xGF under 3 in one Home Game. And it was their last one which they won 5-1. The score line may explain the low xGF as they probably at some point figured they had enough goals and focused on the clock. Edmonton has scored 3 or more goals in every home game. So something has to give.
Edmonton has also had xGA Under 3 in every home game but the first of the playoffs. Which may have just been adrenaline based. However, like I said with Skinner, it hasn’t exactly meant fewer goals against. 4 of the 6 games have seen their opponents score 3 or more goals. Last two home games vs Vancouver could be small sample, or a sign of a change in Edmontons favor.
I lean towards the Over. But the enormity of the game, may have the teams play towards their defense and wait for the opponent to make the mistake. Both teams have lethal finishers, so they may be confident they can take less chances. Or it can be wide open.
If I were to take a low scoring game, better payouts would be a 0-0 first period, or at least an under. And I would take game goes to OT at a higher payout of +340. If the game follows a certain low scoring game script, I believe the potential for Overtime would be somewhat correlated. There would be less windows of opportunity both at the start of the game, assuming both sides survive the initial adrenaline. And once it goes past a certain point where teams and players realize one mistake may end it. Also a high scoring back and forth game can also reach OT as well.
Because I’m all over the place I decided to go more in the entertainment path of bets tonight. That being Same Game Parlay, Goal Scorers, and I may throw in the possibility of OT as a bet as well.
Same Game Parlay 3 Players To Score +1615
Hyman
Draisaitl and
Wyatt Johnston
Hyman and Draisaitl are pretty self explanatory and Johnston could present a mismatch on the third line. Scored 18 of his 32 regular season goals on the road. Had a goal and two assists on 12 shots in 3 regular season games vs Edmonton. 5 of his 7 playoff goals have come on the road.
Game Goes to OT +340
Single Bet Nurse to score +1400
I like the value even though Bouchard is probably the best option.
First Goal Scorer Robertson +1600
Hintz may play for Dallas. If so they could pair him with Robertson to get him going goal scoring wise. Robertson isn’t shooting and seems to be differing to Seguin. Robertson is collecting assists, so he hasn’t gone completely cold. You could just take Robertson to score at +260. But I find it hard to trust so I like the boost up to +1600, despite the unlikelihood of it cashing.
These are long shot entertainment bets by me. High reward but low expectations.