Written by Graeme on Sunday, October 13th, 2024
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A winning day yesterday, with the lone bet of the Utah Hockey Club and New York Rangers game to go over 6 goals. We had that one done with before the halfway point, with a grand total of 11 goals in that one.
Another disastrous outing for the Edmonton Oilers, who got absolutely thumped by Chicago.
Happy Thanksgiving to all our Canadian readers. I’ve never been a big turkey guy, so I usually just BBQ up some steaks although got some duck going this year. Looking forward to it.
Let’s look at Sundays action – not expecting much from today but maybe I’ll be pleasantly surprised:
Jets vs Wild:
Wild on the B2B. I guess I should still be taking a glance at pre-season data and seeing if it corresponds with the early regular season data. Pretty mixed results for this one and balances out. Regular season off the two games so far, Jets goaltending is saving them huge.
With the B2B, and if Hellebuyck in net, I lean the Jets here but not enough to take them in regulation at this point of the season.
Stars vs Kraken:
Stars 100% record now going up against the Kraken. Both teams on a B2B makes it meh. By both pre-season and regular season data, this should be a comfortable win for the Stars. The B2Bs put me off any bets, but if you’re looking for action, with the small data we have, the Stars in regulation is a safe play.
Oilers vs Flames:
Happy to pass on this one completely.
Golden Knights vs Ducks:
Knights goaltending an early concern. Ducks offense looked good lsat night at creating chances. Much better than pre-season. Not enough data to go with anything here.
To WIN moneyline: Jets
Prop: Scheifele, Over 2.5 shots, at x1.90
Jets are such a good team, and I have to think they took it easy against Chicago with cross-border rival Minnesota on tap. Jets get 4 days off after this game, and they’re at home; this should be a good game. Minnesota let Columbus get 33 shots on them. Jets should get more.
Can’t get on the Oilers/Flames game with the Oilers so out of tune, they’ll snap back at some point, and the Flames will be up for this, so the Over looks tempting, but the Oilers offense is still out to lunch and may not contribute. Flames moneyline? Other games I can’t figure out. Flames on the puckline is at x5.25 and the Flames are an offensive threat on all lines.
There were things I liked today, but just not much value. I liked the UNDER in Minnesota vs Winnipeg. But it’s moved to 5.5 already and UNDER 6 is going at -150. So I feel that’s too high to take.
I expect Edmonton to bounce back. They’ve been pretty dominant metric wise. But the Penalty Kill and Goaltending have been awful. The price point currently-265, is still too high for a team not in form. Thought about the OVER but a couple things concern me. Based on the value and performances itd be Calgary or pass. And I’ll go with pass because Edmonton could potentially clean up the PK and Goaltending.
I expect a Dallas win and was close to a play even at -175. But it’s a pass.
Thought about team totals. Over for Edmonton and Under for Anaheim. And both of these I felt were too expensive as well. So One play and then some more goal scorer props to keep me entertained.
Vegas to win in regulation -165
I think Anaheim could struggle to score in this spot. Samsonov starts for Vegas and he had a down year last year. Should be a good spot for him to pick up a win though. Anaheim is 0 for 5 on the Power Play which could help Vegas struggling penalty kill. Anaheim was unable to offer much at even strength vs San Jose. Anaheim still picked up the shutout victory yesterday, but now faces a much tougher team. Not crazy about the price but I think Vegas should win this one without much concern.
Goal Scorers
Minnesota Kaprizov +125
Third on team in SOG. First in shot attempts.
Winnipeg Vilardi +210
Hasn’t gotten going yet. Better value than Connor which gives me more leeway. I do expect Minnesota vs Winnipeg to be a low scoring game. So might be better not to take props in games like this in the future
Dallas Harley +800 and Hesikanen +550
I contemplated both Hintz and Johnston who are both probably better options. However I’ll try and go with the two defenders and hope one can hit. Harley leads the team in Shots on goal. This will probably regress. However if it continues, getting him at +800 is great. Hesikanen has only one shot on goal so far. But has 9 shot attempts tying him for second on the team with Harley. Hesikanen gets PP time with the first unit. Seattle has already given up 2 goals on 4 penalty kills early in the season. Still both of these are long shots.
Edmonton Draisaitl +120 and Hyman +110
Not thrilled with taking both at such low value. But both at plus money gives me a little more cushion. We know about Draisaitl on the Power Play. Picked up one yesterday and could get another today. Calgary is averaging 4 Penalty Kills a game. And has allowed 3 Power Play Goals already.
Edmonton Nugent Hopkins to record a Power Play Point +250
I considered him to score, but like Hyman and Draisaitl odds better. Could pick up a point on the Power Play whether goal or assist.
Recap of plays
Vegas in Regulation-165
To Score Props
Minnesota Kaprizov +125
Winnipeg Vilardi +210
Dallas Hesikanen +550
Dallas Harley +800
Edmonton Draisaitl +120
Edmonton Hyman +110
Vegas Olofsson +245
To record a Power Play Point
Edmonton Nugent Hopkins +250