Written by Scott on Sunday, October 27th, 2024
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Busy day of action yesterday with 14 games.
Of course it was going to be me who took the first loss. I had the Wild to win against the Flyers. The Flyers snapped their 6 game losing skid and the Wild had their 7 game point streak stopped in the loss. The Flyers outscored the Wild 4-2 in the 3rd for the win.
Also had over 6 in the Capitals vs Lightning game. Both teams averaged 4 or more goals but the Lightning shut them out 3-0.
Thankfully tonight there is only 4 games which is much easier to deal with.
Oilers vs Wings
The Oilers are in 7th in the Pacific and the Wings are 7th in the Atlantic. Both rank in the bottom 3rd for GPG and both allow more than 3 per game.
On the road the Oilers have gone 1-1-0 and at home the Wings are 2-2-0.
I just don’t see anything jumping out at me with the way both teams have performed so far.
Ducks vs Devils
The Devils need to get their shit together and fast. They opened up the season going 4-1 and are now on a 4 game losing skid and sit at 5-4-2.
The Ducks are 3-3-1 but 2 of those wins came against the Sharks.
I would say I’m all over the Devils but with them on a 4 game skid I want to see them get out of it and back on track
Canadiens vs Flyers
No interest in this game. Both are recently coming off of a 6 game losing skid and both played yesterday. Easy pass.
Senators vs Avalanche
The Sens are 4-3 and playing better than many expected. Batherson, Stutzle and Tkachuk are doing the heavy lifting offensively with Giroux, Sanderson and Norris right there too.
It was crazy to see how the Avalanche started their season off. The began by dropping 4 in a row and all by 2 or more goals. They have managed to salvage the early season by winning 4 in a row.
Both teams are in the top 10 in GPG but both are also in the bottom third of the league in GAPG. Sens are 11th in shots, Avs are 12th and the Sens are ranked 2nd for power play and the Avs are 3rd.
So let me start off by saying Edmonton will probably win this game. Detroit just played an afternoon game yesterday and lost to Buffalo. They are home today but still had to travel. And on paper face a tougher matchup. Edmonton has the rest advantage, and is fresh off its best performance and most complete win of the season. And we’ve seen how hot this team can get.
There’s also a lot of things in the stats and analytics pointing to Edmonton having room to grow. I had an in depth write up breaking down the stats and why I think they point to an Edmonton win. However, it was quite long and may not be interesting to anyone. Another reason is that I’m actually making a play on Detroit.
So I’d be giving roughly 7 paragraphs of stats that point to Edmonton, and conclude with a play on Detroit. Which admittedly would not make much sense.
Ultimately why I’m going with Detroit is simply once again line value and the price. Edmonton opened-185 and has been bet all the way up to currently a -258. This is giving me Detroit at +210. I could also go into the math on that, but once again probably wouldn’t be interesting to most. But basically Detroit is being priced at 32 percent, and I’d give them about 42 percent chance to win.
Even if I’m accurate, that means they lose this game more often than not. But, I’m buying at a low, so I don’t mind the risk. I think Edmonton is both a public and sharp team. And people love to auto fade teams on back to backs. Also as I mentioned the underlying stats and metrics point to Edmonton. So anyone using them as their basis should also like Edmonton here. Also adding to the high liability, we will probably see Edmonton being used in parlays, and in regulation and puck line bets. This has caused the Edmonton price to be steamed and I don’t see any value left taking the Oilers even if they do ultimately win this game.
I also have two goal scorer props both on Oilers.
Draisaitl at +160 and Hyman at +150.
Starting with Draisaitl, we know he’s lethal on the Power Play. Detroit Penalty Kill has not been good. Detroit’s PK is at 64.29. Edmonton can get its PP going and might get quite a few chances if Detroit is fatigued and chasing the puck.
Hyman is yet to score this season. And just picked up his first point in the last game vs Pittsburgh. His 23 shots on goal are 4th on the team. And his 55 shot attempts are 3rd. He’s taken 18 shots the last 4 games, so still firing at a high rate. That could actually be due a regression here or soon. He’s a 13.5 percent shooter in his career, so even with a lower shot total today he could still easily convert here.
All three plays are simply value plays based on current odds, even if they slightly contradict each other on the surface.
Detroit +210
Goal Scorers
Edmonton Draisaitl +160
Edmonton Hyman +150
Nothing for me. Either the teams or the matchup leaves far too much as a guessing game. This is why we have other sports to look at!