Written by Graeme on Thursday, October 31st, 2024
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Happy Halloween!
We say goodbye to October today. I’m not ready to say goodbye – it’s been an incredible month betting tips wise, with an incredible 10-3 record for +6.21u.
Hopefully November is just as sweet as October, and more treat than trick. I am here for today and the first 6 days of November, then it’s over to Scott, as I travel to the USA one day after the election results likely come in. Should be fun.
Let’s look at the slate for tonight:
Penguins vs Ducks:
Penguins are big favourites despite coming in on a bad run. Ducks meanwhile just beat the Islanders. So is this just based more on name value, or is there merit to those odds?
Penguins have a piss-poor CA/60 but the Ducks is worse. Pens have the slightly better Fenwick but nothing overwhelming. Scoring more, but conceding WAY more. Very slight edge in xG.
Basically – it won’t surprise me if the Ducks pull the win off here. There is value in them for sure. But you’re banking on their goaltending holding up and the Pens continuing to be crap, and risking it against that CA/60. Too risky to advise, but one of those where I’ll chuck some money on it knowing that mathematically, it’s the right play.
Hurricanes vs Bruins:
Canes come in on a nice little winning run. Boston are struggling to recapture the magic from last season. Canes destroy them in the metrics of course. GF, SCG etc as well. They are just straight up and up the better side.
Would obviously prefer Andersen in net. Kochetkov is at an 0.894 SV% which isn’t ideal, but regardless of which of the two is in net, as long as it’s one of them, I’m happy with Canes in Regulation. Generally a paint by the numbers play except for preferring Freddie.
Ontario: 1.95 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.95 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -110 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/10/31 8:30:23 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Capitals vs Canadiens:
Washington solid favourites here. They have been looking good this season. Actually they are joint biggest favourites of the night with the Leafs. My Habs have been a bit all over the place.
Corsi and Fenwick well in favour of Washington. Same with goal and xG metrics etc. Basically another one that ticks all the boxes. Caps goaltending a bit iffy but Montreals is worse.
Capitals in Regulation
Ontario: 1.83 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 1.83 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -125 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.83 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2024/10/31 8:30:23 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Leafs vs Kraken:
Leafs flying high after that Jets win. Kraken coming in strong after the Habs victory – a big one. Their offense has popped up big a few tims this year.
Not touching the Leafs on this one though due to their defensive metrics. They are conceding too many chances and goals, and the Kraken offense are overperforming and confident. Would surprise me if the Kraken get the win – but I don’t feel good backing the Toronto lads here.
Flyers vs Blues:
Flyers picked up a rare W away to Boston. Blues were terrible last time out. I have no idea how this game goes, but it’s certainly one where given the choice, I’d rather be outside in the cold handing out candy to kids than watching this game.
FWIW, metrics wise, it’s very 50/50 with the Flyers goaltending and SCGA being a liability, so Blues might have some miniscule value.
Predators vs Oilers:
Oilers without McDavid is never a good sign, but teams often show up briefly when they lose their star player, so that causes this to be a very high variance game. Happy to pass. By the metrics, it’s quite bloody close so you take away McDavid and in theory, Preds should win this one without too much trouble.
Sharks vs Blackhawks:
This could actually be a fun game. Both teams had high scoring games, coming off big wins. I was hoping the over would be in play here alas the GF/60 for the season and xGF/60 does not go with that. It’s more about the defensive metrics and I’d rather back two strong offenses over two weak defenses. So no play here. Based on the data, Blackhawks should be favourites anyway.
Thank you for today thoughts!
May next month be even more happy, successful and full of great hockey.
These games are full of howling poltergeists, but always bet where the bats with bloody teeth are circling.
To WIN moneyline: Carolina
Strong lean: moneyline WIN: Chicago
I agree with Graeme’s observations. Annie Heim could win this game. Pens have a Paul Bunyan-sized ego problem and typically won’t bother to show up for bottom third teams like Anaheim. And they lose those games. The Pens are simply too high on the Greek God List of why the Sun shines, and would rather wait at the golf course for the playoffs. However, Pens are doing horribly, while all their team support trend lines indicate that can be expected. Their own fans may not tolerate them slacking off. Anaheim is getting their act together, and their look-ahead should have them rallying for a win tonight.
Boston is nowhere near who they were across the last decade where they totally dominated the regular season. Carolina is fast and smothers teams, plus they have many good shooters who are relentless. I just can’t see Boston surviving this one.
Chicago is not great but they can be good, and they’re getting better. San Jose is bad and though they’ve made some trades to improve, Chicago is in a better spot tonight, a rest advantage and stat advantage, plus they’ll be going for wins regularly to improve over last season. Chicago has had two days rest, and San Jose has one day rest after a back-to-back, so they’ll be very short of adrenaline tonight, and Chicago should own the last two periods. No way does San Jose win this unless the mob is involved.
Had a couple leans on games and totals but nothing I felt confident in so I figured I’d play a couple goal scorer props.
Toronto Matthews to score -125
Not crazy about minus money on goal scorer props but worth a shot.
Toronto Marner +210
St. Louis Buchnevich +290
Philadelphia Farabee +410