Written by Graeme & Scott on Sunday, April 16th, 2023
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It felt like the last couple of weeks of the regular season in the NHL dragged on forever, but it’s all worth it because we are finally here – at the NHL playoffs!
If you’re a new follower, we do a things a bit differently come playoff time.
We both provide our individual opinion on each series and game. No working together or discussing. Sometimes we’ll be on the same page, sometimes we will be in stark contrast with each other.
We cover each series prior to Game 1, and we start individual game betting tips from Game 2 onwards. We don’t let our series prediction influence our actual bets. Extreme example but say one of us backed the Leafs to win the series 4-0, and then at 2-0 up, Matthews got injured.
There’s a likely chance we would back Tampa to win the next game, regardless of that series bet.
With that, let’s tackle all four series starting Monday:
Hurricanes vs Islanders Series Betting Tips:
Scott: The Canes swept the Isles back in 2019.
The Canes have a deep team and can run all 4 lines which is crucial in the playoffs. Aho, Necas, Teravainen and Jarvis. On defense they have one of the best groups in the league with Slavin, Burns, Pesce, Skjei and Gostisbehere. Andersen and Raanta split starts and it doesn’t really matter who starts as both are good goalies.
The Isles have a solid forward group with Horvat, Nelson, Lee, Palmieri, Parise, Pageau and Barzal once he returns. They are a strong defensive team with Dobson, Pelech, Pulock and Mayfield. They have Sorokin in goal who is going to be a Vezina Trophy winner at some point. If he struggles they have Varlamov.
The Isles are a pain in the ass to play against and have players like Clutterbuck, Martin and Johnston who will wear the other team down. They could win this series but it’s their road record of 17-18-6 that has me worried.
Canes in 6
Graeme: For each series, I will be focusing primarily on the advanced metrics as basis for my picks. A combination of head to head metrics, as well as pulling data from a few specific parts of the season that I feel closely relate to the playoffs. My write-ups will generally be shorter than Scotts due to this but he does a fantastic job of covering all the general information needed so I’d only be repeating myself.
Canes won 3 of the 4. In all games they dominated the metrics. Of course the Canes are a juggernaut in that regard and can make it tough to gauge them. There were a few games at the end where the Canes metrics were getting a bit concern, but then they would flex their muscle again .
It won’t surprise me if the Islanders pick up at least one win in this series. But I think the Canes can handle them and agree with Scott on that.
Based on both our opinions, the best play is:
Hurricanes -1.5 for the series
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 2.05 Odds at Bovada
USA: +105 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2023/04/16 5:01:55 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Bruins vs Panthers Series Betting Tips:
Scott: It’s really hard to bet against the Bruins after the historic season they had.
This is a matchup between the Presidents Trophy winner from this season and last. They played 4 times with each winning twice at home.
The Bruins have long been known as a 1 line team but this year they have depth. On top of Bergeron, Marchand and Pasta they have DeBrusk, Krejci, Zacha, Hall and Bertuzzi. The Panthers have some big pieces too in Barkov, Tkachuk, Reinhart, Verhaeghe and Bennett. The edge goes to the Bruins.
On D the Bruins were the top ranked defensive team in the league. They are led by McAvoy and have Orlov, Lindholm and Carlo in the top 4. The Panthers have Ekblad, Montour, Forsling and Staal. So Bruins have edge there too.
Goaltending is crucial in the playoffs and the Bruins have the best in the league. Ullmark was the league leader in wins, GAA and save percentage. He went 40-6-1 which is just amazing. The Panthers have Bobrovsky who has missed the last 8 games. Do they ride Lyon who helped them get there or go back to Bobrovsky.
With the Bruins season and goaltending and the way the Panthers had to claw their way in I don’t see this going any other way.
Bruins in 5. Bruins -2.5 is my play.
Ontario: 2.30 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.50 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +150 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.30 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/04/16 5:01:55 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: Man, it is funny. Going back a couple of months ago now, when the “who will win the cup” talk started to get serious, the only thing I was certain of was that I’d bet against the Bruins in the first round. We’ve just seen it so many times before – a team so dominant in the regular season, then crash in the playoffs.
But as time went on, that’s been a harder bet to make. They kept grinding away and looking great. And now we’re here. And their opposition is the crappy Florida Panthers. A team who tried their best to not even make it into the playoffs.
The thing is – the Panthers didn’t go down easy with this team. They tied 2-2 overall, and the Panthers did something most teams were unable to do – consistently score against the Bruins. Their offensive output and conversion was top notch every time. And it wasn’t like there were any anomalies. You balance out all the Bruins defensive emtrics, and Panthers are in the Top 15 three separate times out of all the games they have played.
Panthers know how to unlock this defense. I’m good with going with Panthers +1.5 here, despite my negative feelings towards Florida down the stretch.
Ontario: 2.35 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.35 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +125 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.35 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/04/16 5:01:55 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Stars vs Wild Series Betting Tips:
Scott: The Stars are led by Robertson, Benn, Pavelski, Seguin, Hintz, Johnston and Domi which is a nice mix of youngsters and veterans.
On defense they have Heiskanen, who set a Stars single season record for points by a defenseman, Suter, Lindell and Hakanpaa so they have a decent group there. And in goal they have Oettinger who had a good year with 2.37 GAA and a .919 save percentage.
The Wild will be more rested coming into this game. They are a tough team to play against. Kaprizov, Boldy, Zuccarello, Eriksson-Ek and Johansson will do the heavy lifting offensively. They will wear you down physically though and that’s going to help them. Hartman, Reeves and Foligno will hit and be a huge pain in the ass for the other team.
On D they have Spurgeon, Dumba, Brolin, Middleton, Klingberg and Goligoski which gives they a steady group. In goal they have the experience with Fleury the 1A and Gustavsson the 1B. Fleury has almost 200 games of playoff experience which will help them and if he stumbles Gustavsson had better numbers so they are safe.
This is going to be a good series. I personally feel with the style of play the Wild use it may be a tough matchup for the Stars.
Wild in 6 – Wild to Win the Series is my bet
Ontario: 2.25 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.25 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +125 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.25 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/04/16 5:01:55 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: Dallas were one of those teams that really frustrated me in the second half of the season. Minnesota I was able to make some bank on due to their defensive metrics which was nice.
However, those metrics were not in display in most games against the Stars. The two 4-1 games in particular make the top 10 for worst defensive performances by the Wild. What’s notable is a lot of them were from high danger goals. It’s mental too as the Wild had the 3rd best HDCA/60 all season.
What this all suggests is that if Dallas get those chances, they will take advantage of them. And Minnesota have shown offensive inefficiences at times. Problem is, Stars are not a team I love to back.
I’m going with Series to go to 7 games as I think this will be a tight one.
Ontario: 3.10 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 3.10 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +200 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 3.10 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/04/16 5:01:55 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Oilers vs Kings Series Betting Tips:
Scott: The Oilers are on fire at the moment. They have won 14 of their last 15 games.
They have the best player on the planet McDavid and also have Draisaitl. Those two led the league in points by a wide margin. They also have Kane, Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman.
On defense they have Nurse, Ekholm, Ceci and Bouchard. Skinner is the number 1 goalie for the Oilers and at times can take over a game. If he struggles it’s Campbell.
The Kings have Kopitar, Kempe, Fiala, Arvidsson and Danault leading their forward group. On defense they are led, as always, by Doughty and have Durzi, Anderson and Gavrikov. In goal it’s Korpisalo and Copley.
The Oilers are far too strong to be bounced in the first round. They have home ice and McDavid and Draisaitl should make sure that this series is over quick.
Oilers in 5. -2.5 is my bet
Ontario: 2.75 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.75 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +170 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.71 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/04/16 5:01:55 PM EST but are subject to change.)
But MAN. This is a brutal game for them. The Oilers just look phenomenal sans Campbell.
The two tied during the regfular eason. Metrics overall lean towards the Oilers there. Oilers generally went from strength so strength and since the New Year have been superb.
As long as Skinner is in net, I can’t see anything stopping these Oilers. And it’s not the end of the world if it’s Campbell as they have the offensive power (sometimes) to overcome that.
I can’t completely write-off the Kings so I’ll go with Oilers in 6 – 1.5 is my bet.
Ontario: 1.71 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.71 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -140 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.71 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/04/16 5:01:55 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Series winner -2.5: Boston
Game 1 winner Puckline: Boston
Series winner: Oilers
Lean: Game 1 UNDER 7.0: Oilers/Kings
I have to do a lot more research before making picks, but I think because Boston’s defense was so strong all season, matched with their very high Goals For count, that Florida is up the creek here, and we’re not going to see a Presidents Trophy Curse happening in Round One, in fact quite the opposite. Presidents Trophy Curses happen to teams who burn themselves out to get that trophy, and that can easily happen if only relying on offense, and probably some exhausting ephedrine supplements. Boston didn’t do that and didn’t need to do that. Florida is up against a wall here and they can’t climb it. They are already facing their elimination game, but that won’t give them superpowers Boston can’t handle. I think they’re going to be flushed down in 4 or 5, possibly winning a game back under the palm trees. Florida’s performance against weak teams isn’t so hot, and Boston losing on rare occasion isn’t evidence that the opponent was a great team.
Being very cautious with the Oilers, because those two teams can both cause flashing red lights all night behind nets and this could go 7-5 tonight, or as easily, 3-1. Both teams are fast and can score, but also keep up to each other’s speed to shut down playmaking. Tough call, but over time, I think the Oilers have the edge to take the series.