Written by Graeme on Monday, April 17th, 2023
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From yesterdays tips:
If you’re a new follower, we do a things a bit differently come playoff time.
We both provide our individual opinion on each series and game. No working together or discussing. Sometimes we’ll be on the same page, sometimes we will be in stark contrast with each other.
We cover each series prior to Game 1, and we start individual game betting tips from Game 2 onwards. We don’t let our series prediction influence our actual bets. Extreme example but say one of us backed the Leafs to win the series 4-0, and then at 2-0 up, Matthews got injured.
There’s a likely chance we would back Tampa to win the next game, regardless of that series bet.
With that, let’s tackle all four series starting Tuesday:
Devils vs Rangers Series Betting Tips:
Scott: This is going to be a fun series between two long time rivals in the Hudson River rivalry.
The Devils are led by Hughes who had a great year and is only going to get better. They brought in Meier for more scoring depth. They also have Hischier, Palat, Bratt and Mercer.
On defense they have Hamilton, Severson, Graves and Marino. In goal they have Vanacek and Blackwood.
The Rangers are stacked team. The have Zibanejad, Panarin, Tarasenko, Kane, Trocheck and Kreider in the top 6. They have a great line in the Kid Line who can be a nightmare for opposing teams. On D they have Fox, Trouba, Miller and Lindgren as the top 4. In goal it Shesterkin and Halak.
The Devils finished higher than the Rangers in the standings but I think the Rangers are the better team. They have more experience and are full of players who can score. Home ice won’t be much of a factor here.
Rangers in 5 – but with the healthy odds I’ll go with Rangers to win the series
Ontario: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +100 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Everyone Else: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/04/17 7:51:07 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: Man – remember when the Devils seemed invincible? It was all down to their defense. The first couple of months their D was epic, but then they blew it. 2nd best CA/60 for example then dropped to like 14th best. Looking through the season metrics, they were able to get back to that near the end of the season for a bit which is nice to see.
Rangers are a weird team too though. There was that brief period a few months ago where they looked unstoppable, and then it just all went to pot out of nowhere.
Neither team is really trustworthy and I see this as a close series. Like there are two big questions – if the Rangers offense and the Devils defense can perform? I have more confidence in the Rangers offense there.
Looking at the individual matchups between the teams though, with a good sample size of 4 different periods during the season, I feel confident in the Devils. That Rangers offense is stacked and is a legitimate concern. I think we’ll see a lot of overs in this series, but I’m going to take Devils to win the series as I feel their offense can do the job regardless of whether their D steps up or not. They’ve shown they can win those types of games.
Ontario: 1.83 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.83 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -115 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/04/17 7:51:07 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Leafs vs Lightning Series Betting Tips:
Scott: The Lightning still have a solid team. They have been forced to trade some players away since the Stanley Cup teams due to the cap but have the pieces to do damage.
The Leafs haven’t been able to get out of the first round in 6 straight years. They have gone all in this season with the players they brought in that makes them an even deeper team.
The Lightning are experts at the playoffs at this point. They have made the finals for the last 3 seasons winning the Cup twice.
The Leafs can match the Lightning offensively and might actually have better depth. On defense the Bolts have Hedman and Sergachev and after them they have some veterans. The Leafs have Reilly, Brodie, McCabe and Giordano.
In goal is where the Lightning have the major advantage. Samsonov has been good but it’s Vasilevskiy who is always in the Vezina conversation.
With the moves the Leafs made they are going all in this season. If they can get through the 1st round they would get the monkey off of their back and it would be interesting to see how they build off of that.
Leafs in 6
Ontario: 2.40 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 2.40 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: +140 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.05 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2023/04/17 7:51:07 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: God I want nothing more than a 1st round exit for the Leafs.
And I think I’m gonna bet it. Because given the odds and their history, I feel you have to. Plus I have legitimate concerns with that team and how they perform if a player is out etc. Not that I really believe in Tampa too much this season.
Looking at the metrics for a few select periods I chose from, I like what I see from Tampa. Their offensive metrics minus actual goals were great.
They do have defensive issues of course.
I feel like this series is closer than the sportsbooks think. I’d give the Leafs the edge, but I feel like Tampa should be maybe 2.20 or 2.30 looking at the metrics. That’s not factoring in Leafs being the Leafs. Remember I called the Habs beating them!
Lightning Win Series
Ontario: 2.55 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.55 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +145 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.55 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/04/17 7:51:07 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Golden Knights vs Jets Series Betting Tips:
Scott: The Knights won all 3 games agaisnt the Jets this season. This is a rematch of the 2018 Western Conference Finals.
The Knights will be without captain Mark Stone for the playoffs unless they make a deep run. They still have Eichel, Stephenson, Marchessault, Barbashev, Smith and Karlsson. The Jets are led by Connor, Scheifele and Wheeler and have Ehlers, Dubois and Niederreiter.
On defense it’s Pietrangelo, Theodore, McNabb and Martinez for the Knights and for the Jets it’s Morrissey, Pionk, Schmidt and DeMelo.
With Thompson injured the Knights will ride Quick and Hill with Quick having over 100 games of playoff experience. The Jets have Hellebuyck and Rittich.
This should be a close series and wouldn’t be surprised if it went the distance. But looking at the Jets road record, 20-20-1, home ice will play a factor in this series.
Knights in 6
Graeme: I mean I swore off the Jets during the regular season and this may be the first ever playoffs where I swear off a team as well. When it comes to betting, I hate Winnipeg. Even if it is the birthplace of the great Kenny Omega.
Anyway I just feel the Knights offense will be too strong for the Jets from looking at the metrics. No great insights or anything – that’s pretty much it.
We’ll go with Knights -1.5.
Ontario: 2.05 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 2.10 Odds at Bovada
USA: +110 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/04/17 7:51:07 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Avalanche vs Kraken Series Betting Tips:
Scott: They played 3 times during the season with the Kraken winning two of them. There were 2 games that needed extra time with each team winning one of them.
The Avalanche are the defending Stanley Cup Champs but this season they have been dealing with injuries to key players. They are led by MacKinnon, who can take over a series himself, Rantanen, Compher, Lehkonen and Nichushkin. So they won’t have to much trouble scoring goals.
On defense they are a deep team. Makar is dealing with an injury but is expected back for the playoffs. Joining him are Toews, Byram, Manson, Erik Johnson and Jack Johnson. Georgiev is the starter who had an ok season and Francouz is the back up.
The Kraken will be making their playoff debut.
They have a decent group of forwards with Beniers, Eberle, McCann and Gourde. Plus Tanev, Tolvanen and Schwartz give them some depth.
On D they are led by Dunn who is joined by Larsson, Oleksiak, Schultz to form the top 4. In goal the have Jones and Grubauer with Jones being the 1A. Both were OK during the regular season but both had save percentages below .900 and against a high powered team like the Avs this will hurt them.
Despite their injuries the Avalanche are a great team with a deep playoff run under their belt. I like them to win the series but the Kraken have been a strong road team this season. So with that and the health of Makar I’ll give the Kraken a game or two.
Avalanche in 6. Avs -1.5
Ontario: 1.68 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.68 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -150 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.68 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/04/17 7:51:07 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: Oh god the Avs. What a waste of space they have been this season. Just as you think they were worthy of backing they’d not show up again.
Kraken are a betting nightmare. They’d have a few games of godlike hockey then play like it was their first day on skates.
It feels like Avs are such heavy favourites based on rep more than anything. They haven’t really did anything to win me over at least.
But the Kraken are a great team for an offense to feast on, even if the Avs really struggled to do that during the regular season.
This is a tough one as I was hoping for decent odds on the over 5.5 in games but only 1.64 so not a play.
I’m going to go with Kraken +1.5 for the series. They can be a very erratic team, and I think at the very least can make a series of it.
Ontario: 2.05 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 2.15 Odds at Bovada
USA: +115 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/04/17 7:51:07 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Tonight’s winners: Knights and to south, the Cubs.
Jets haven’t been consistent this season, and the Knights know they’re in the situation they’ve been focused on creating. The Jets are in need of a few trades and a summer to clear the air. Knights are already in the groove. I’d expect the Jets to provide a few standout solo performances as usual, but as a team, they’re out of Round 1 in 4 or 5 games, and Game 1 isn’t usually where the upset happens.