Written by Graeme & Scott on Sunday, April 20th, 2025
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The NHL playoffs are underway!
The Jets beat the Blues 5-3 in a banger of a game, which started off strong then had a dramatic ending. Let’s hope for more action like that in this series.
It wasn’t quite as exciting in the other game. After goalless 1st period, the Avs dominated the Stars for a big 5-1 victory.
Let’s turn our attention to Sunday. We have three games going today:
Devils vs Hurricanes Series Betting Tips:
Scott: They played each other 4 times during the regular season and the series went 2-2. The home team won each game.
The Devils are lead offensively by Bratt, Hischier, Meier and have some depth with Noesen, Mercer and Palat. They will be without their best player Jack Hughes who had surgery and will miss the playoffs. On defense they are expecting Hamilton to be back by the 2nd round but until then they have Luke Hughes, Dumoulin, Kovacevic, Dillon and Pesce. In goal the are good with Markstrom and Allen.
The Canes had an eventful year that saw them bring in Rantanen and move him before the deadline. They are led by Aho, Jarvis, Svechnikov, Roslovic and Hall. They also have Stankovan, Martinook, Kotkaniemi and Staal. On defense they have Slavin, Gostisbehere, Orlov, Burns and Chatfield. In goal the have Kochetkov as their starter and Andersen as his backup.
Seeing how the home teams won all the games between these teams during the regular season I give the advantage to the Canes right away and then looking at the teams on paper I’m taking Canes to win the series.
Canes to win the series in 5 games. Based on odds I’ll go with Canes -1.5 for safety but -2.5 is fine as well.
Ontario: 1.88 Odds at TonyBet
Canada: 1.88 Odds at TonyBet
USA: -130 Odds at Intertops.
Everyone Else: -130 Odds at Intertops.
(Odds correct as of 2025/04/20 10:32:52 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: Canes are usually a juggernaut in the overall metrics. They weren’t as dominant this year as in the past, but still solid. Better Corsi and Fenwick. Although Devils aren’t too bad either. Devils scored less but conceded less. Canes solid xGF/60 of 3.49 and xGA about the same.
Basically – based on overall metrics, it looks like actually a close series with the Canes offense being slightly better.
Devils are an interesting one – I got quite a few nice winning betting tips early in the season as I expected the bookies to overvalue the Devils, and betting against them early was a nice strategy.
Analyzing the individual matches is a bit tough, as they played in the first week of the season where teams are still figuring things out, then a head to head back to back right after the Christmas break. So the November matchup is the one I am more focused on.
The metrics for all four matchups make it quite difficult and very close. By all the numbers, this is very close to a 50/50 series. I’d say maybe Canes 55%.
So this makes things really interesting for me – I am NOT a Devils fan this season. In the divisional previews I said they’d struggle early, and they never won me over throughout the season.
But mathematically – I think I HAVE to go with the Devils due to the perceived value.
So it’s one of those bets where I expect to lose, but I’m going to have to go with Devils +1.5 for the series just based on the math.
Ontario: 2.15 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 2.15 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: +115 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.10 Odds at Intertops.
(Odds correct as of 2025/04/20 10:32:52 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Senators vs Maple Leafs Series Betting Tips:
Scott: The Sens won all 3 games they played against the Leafs this season.
The Sens have been a fun team to watch this season. They are a young team who’s only going to keep getting better. They are led by Stutzle, Batherson, Tkachuk, Giroux and Cozens. For depth they have Pinto, Greig and Zetterlund. In goal they have Ullmark as the starter and Forsberg as his backup.
The Leafs put together a strong season and won the Atlantic. They are led by Matthews, Marner, Tavares and Nylander. For depth they have Knies, Domi, Laughton and McMann. On defense the have Reilly, Ekman-Larsson, McCabe, Tanev and Carlo. In goal they have Woll as their starter and Stolarz as their backup.
I always have more faith in this team than I should but I think they have a decent shot at getting through the first round. It’s not against the Bruins or the Lightning which is nice for them. Plus it’s the Battle of Ontario in the 1st round and this is going to be fun to watch.
Leafs win in 5-6 will go with Leafs -1.5 for the series
Ontario: 2.15 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 2.15 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: +110 Odds at Intertops.
Everyone Else: 2.10 Odds at Intertops.
(Odds correct as of 2025/04/20 10:32:52 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: By the metrics, Sens better CF% over the season, better FF%. Scored less, conceded slightly more. Worse xGF but better xGA.
Basically the Leafs offense look to be the potential difference maker here. Which can be concerning at times if you’re a Toronto fan.
Sens of course swept the series. They actually did a good job at stifling the Leafs.
Of course, it’s not just about data. Playoff experience is massive and the Leafs of course, have that. But then their playoff experience hasn’t been great.
I think the Leafs will take it. Despite that experience jibe, it IS a massive factor. But by the math again, I feel obligated to go with Sens +1.5.
Ontario: 1.77 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.77 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -125 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.76 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/04/20 10:32:52 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Wild vs Golden Knights Series Betting Tips:
Scott: The Knights swept the season series 3-0.
The Wild avoided having to play the Jets and now get the Golden Knights.
They are led by Boldy, Rossi, Kaprizov and Zuccarello. For depth they are deep with Gaudreau, Johansson, Eriksson-Ek, Foligno, Nyquist and Hartman. On defense they have Spurgeon, Faber, Middleton, Brodin and Bogosian. In goal they have Gustavsson who is backed up by the legend Fleury.
The Knights are led by Eichel, Stone, Hertl, Barbashev and Dorofeyev. For depth they have Saad, Smith, Howden, Roy, Kolesar, Karlsson and others. On defense they have Pietrangelo, Theodore, Hanifin, McNabb and Whitecloud. In goal it’s Hill as the starter and Samsonov as the backup.
The Wild were fun to waste and cheer on but I just don’t see them being an issue for Vegas and the experience they have in the playoffs.
Knights win in 5
Graeme: By the overall season metrics, CF% is very close but the Wild had a really bad CA/60. FF% is a bit similar. Wild scored more, conceded a lot more. Created less, and conceded more in xGA.
Basically it feels like the Wild are pretty fortunate to be here.
Knights were dominant in the regular season against them results wise and by the metrics.
This one – while not as overwhelming – seems similar to the Avs/Stars series I analyzed yesterday. Wild need the goaltending to step up big – which they weren’t able to do over the regular season – here. Their goaltending was brutal. The Knights meanwhile, their xGA/60 of 2.27 and GA/60 of 2.25 says it all – this is a team that could win the cup purely due to their defense and goaltending.
I’d be looking at quite a few Knights -1.5 game bets for this one.
I think Knights will take this in 4-6.
We both feel the same way and while playing it safe with Knights -1.5 is fine, we both feel confident enough and with such great odds, that our official play will be Knights -2.5.
Ontario: 3.00 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 3.10 Odds at Bovada
USA: +210 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/04/20 10:32:52 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Hello everyone, Happy Easter!.
Toronto – Ottawa
The last playoff games between these rivals took place in 2004, when the Maple Leafs eliminated the Senators in seven games.
The problem is that their rival is a very good and unpredictable team. The goal balance clearly shows the Senators’ balanced team in both the defensive and offensive play of this team. The guests of this clash will enter this competition after a 7:5 victory over Carolina.
The hosts will be facing the demons of the first round for another year, and to make matters worse, the visitors from Ottawa dealt with them well in the regular season, winning all the head-to-head clashes.
However, it is worth mentioning that their rivals, in turn, are on a very solid winning streak.
Tie in regular time@4.25
Good luck!