Written by Graeme on Sunday, April 21st, 2024
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The NHL playoffs are underway, and the referees weren’t sleeping when it came to screwing over the Leafs. They were out there conspiring from the get-go, as the Leafs got thumped 5-1 by the Bruins.
I mean don’t get me wrong – quite a few crappy calls and non-calls in that game. But the Leafs just didn’t look ready for that game, and Swayman was hot at the right time.
I think we’ll see a better game from them in Game 2.
I said that goaltending would be a big factor in the Canes series, and going with Freddie was the right call. A solid performance from him, as Carolina defeated the New York Islanders. I liked the Islanders defensive setup in that game too, and it will be interesting to see how the Canes adjust for that going into Game 2.
We have 4 more playoff series starting today, so let’s cover them all! God it’s so nice to be covering this sort of thing on Sunday, instead of a handful of games where 80% of the teams are on a back to back.
I’m in a rush here so my own personal write-ups will be short although I’ve been studying the data for a few days now so all good there.
Panthers vs Lightning Series Betting Tips:
Scott: The Panthers won the season series 2-1.
The Lightning still have a good offensive team but have had to make changes due to the salary cap. The are led by Kucherov, Stamkos, Point and Hagel. They also have Duclair, Cirelli and Paul for depth. On defense it’s Hedman who’s joined by Dumba and Raddysh. A big loss for them was Sergachev being ruled out for the 1st round. As good as this team is offensively they will only go as far as Vasilevskiy can take them. He’s one of the best in the league and any game he plays they have a chance at winning.
The Panthers are a team that are a huge pain in the ass to play. Offensively they have Tkachuk, Reinhart, Barkov, Bennett, Verhaeghe, Tarasenko and Cousins. On defense they have Ekblad, Ekman-Larsson, Montour, Forsling, Kulikov and Mikkola which is a strong top 6. In between the pipes they have Bobrovsky and Stolarz who are both good goalies.
With the team they have, Sergachev missing and the playoffs they had last year I like the Panthers to win this series.
Panthers in 6 so Panthers -1.5
Ontario: 2.15 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 2.15 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: +115 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.10 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/04/21 11:26:13 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: Looking at the metrics, I’d give Panthers the edge but not sure I’d go as heavy as they are. That March 16th game in particular Lightning were very clinical. One thing I expect is a lot of high scoring games. I’m not sure if Tampa can outright win but I’m taking them on the handicap Lightning +1.5 for the series as I just think Florida are too heavily favoured. High scoring games is what I’d be looking at though.
Ontario: 1.71 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.71 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -130 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.68 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/04/21 11:26:13 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Rangers vs Capitals Series Betting Tips:
Scott: The season series was tied 2-2.
The Caps made the playoffs after coming out on top of that mess that took place in the East at the end of the season. They are led by Ovechkin and Strome but the numbers drop off after them. On defense they have Carlson but not much after him. In goal it Lindgren who went 25-16-7 with a 2.67 GAA and a .911 save percentage.
The Rangers are stacked and won the Presidents Trophy. On offense they have Panarin, Kreider, Trochek, Zibanejad and Lafreniere to do the heavy lifting and also have good depth which is crucial in the playoffs. On defense they are deep with Fox, Gustafsson, Trouba, Miller and Schneider. In goal they have one of the best in the league with Shesterkin and should he struggle they have veteran Quick to come in.
It seems each year there is a Cinderella team and the Caps could very well be that team but I just can’t look past the Rangers and how well they played and are built.
Rangers win the series and I’m guessing 5 games will go with Rangers -2.5.
Ontario: 2.20 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 2.45 Odds at Bovada
USA: +145 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/04/21 11:26:13 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: Very close during the regular season. Two tight games back to back, two blowouts fairly close together. I’m still stunned the Caps made it in. Rangers do look very stacked but I think Capitals might be able to compete a bit, especially with low expectations and lack of pressure. I’m going with Caps +2.5 due to the way they contested with the Rangers twice during the season and the metrics in the games.
Ontario: 1.69 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.69 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -150 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.64 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/04/21 11:26:13 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Jets vs Avalanche Series Betting Tips:
Scott: The Jets won all 3 meetings between these teams this season including twice in Colorado.
The Avalanche are stacked offensively. MacKinnon is one of the best in the league and he is joined by Rantanen, Nichushkin, Drouin and Mittelstadt. On defense they have arguably the best in Makar. They also have underrated Toews too. They also have Walker, Manson and Johnson that gives them a deep blueline. In goal it’s Georgiev who went 38-18-5 with a 3.02 GAA and a .897 save percentage.
The Jets had an up and down end of the year which saw them lead the divison to being in 3rd but in the end they ended up 2nd. On offense they have Scheifele, Connor, Ehlers. Monahan, Vilardi and Toffoli. On defense the are led by Morrissey who’s joined by Pionk, Schmidt, Samberg, DeMelo and Dillon. But any success the Jets are going to have comes down to Hellebuyck who is still one of the best goalies in the league.
I wanted to take the Avalanche and didn’t think it would be this tough but the Jets are a strong team they swept the season series. I could see this series being a long one.
Avalanche in 6 possibly 7 but odds are fine to back them to win
Ontario: 1.80 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.80 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -125 Odds at Intertops.
Everyone Else: 1.76 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/04/21 11:26:13 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: Avs favourites here for the series. I haven’t liked either team that much this season. Jets had their number during the regular season. They’re a team I honestly hate backing to be honest. Another big factor is the high danger chances and goals, where the Jets excel in regards to scoring, and Avs give up a lot anf concede.
Happy to back Winnipeg to win the series
Ontario: 2.10 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.12 Odds at Bovada
USA: +112 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.10 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/04/21 11:26:13 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Canucks vs Predators Series Betting Tips:
Scott: The Canucks swept the season series 3-0.
The Preds are led by Forsberg, Nyquist and O’Reilly on offense. For depth they have Smith, Zucker, Beauvillier, Novak and Evangelist. On defense they have one of the best in Josi who’s joined by McDonagh, Barrie and Schenn. In goal is Saros and any success they are going to have will come from how well he plays.
The Canucks, on paper at least, are the better team. Up front they have Miller, Pettersson, Boeser, Garland, Lindholm and Hoglander. On defense they have one of the best in Hughes who is joined by Hronek, Myers, Cole and Zadorov. Demko is their starting goalie and he is one of the better ones in the league. If he’s on then the Canucks should be able to get through this round.
It’s the depth and skill of the Canucks that has me liking their chances. And seeing they swept the season series also is a factor.
Canucks in 6 so -1.5
Graeme: Canucks primarily here due to excellent form before the All Star break. Been a bit hit and miss but I mean when you’ve made the playoffs by like February, hard to get motivated I’m sure. Nashville meanwhile had that great surge following the break.
Actually could be an intriguing series. I think the Canucks earlier in the season definitely showed they are capable. But that was when all three games were played and have to wonder if they are a different team.
For this one I looked at a lot of overall season stats instead. Canucks generally better overall although it’s very tight.
I like the Canucks to win the series. I’d prefer outright, but I don’t hate taking them on the handicap.
Canucks -1.5
Best Odds Canucks -1.5 for the series.
Ontario: 2.35 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 2.35 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: +135 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.30 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/04/21 11:26:13 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Jets in 6 games
No bets today, but one series I’ll be watching for is the Avs vs Jets. Everyone knows the offensive capacity of the Avs, but the Avs can be scored on and the Jets have the capacity. In their last ten games each, the Avs were scored on for more than 3 goals six times, while the Jets were scored on more than 3 goals only once, back on March 28th, by Vegas, when the Jets were in the middle of a 4in6 schedule, so not ideal. The Avs offense also has a pattern of being on then off for games in terms of total goal production. The Jets are consistent in goal scoring.
Unfortunately my most confident play was one I didn’t post, because I got sidetracked but it cashed. That was Rangers win race to three goals at -125. The main theme behind the play was Washington struggling to score. Especially on the road. In Washington’s 11 Road Games dating back to March 11, the Capitals have scored more than 2 goals just once. That continued here today as well. Playoffs start things anew, but sometimes you are what you are. And unless the Caps can get someone to step up or something wonky to happen their year long narrative may continue.
None of this does anyone any good, but I haven’t made an nhl bet in awhile as i’ve switched over to nwsl, mlb and nba primarily.
To try and get some work in I’ll make a couple write ups and plays I admittedly feel less confident in. Past playoff years are hit or miss for me. Sometimes I’ll read it really well (Boston’s exit last year) others I’m not very active and call it a season early.
Colorado Mackinnon Over 4.5 shots -130.
First tip to props in playoffs, check how the book grades them. Some will specify first 60 to prevent the potential of the continuous overtime. Take advantage of the books that don’t.
My first lean was the game total Over 5.5. But, last second I’ve decided to switch to Mackinnon’s shot prop. A lot of the narrative is people picking the Jets to advance and most who are is because of the goaltending. Hellebuyck was 3-0 vs Colorado on the season allowing just 4 goals by the Avs.
The Avs were able to put up 96 shots against Hellebuyck in those 3 games, which averages 32 per game. So even though the Jets can limit teams in shots against, they haven’t been able to necessarily do so vs the Avs. Even if they do you would think Mackinnon should get his.
Mackinnon didn’t get to 5 shots in any of his last three games. I think this could turn to a positive. Avs know the story. They have to beat Hellebuyck, and you would think that would be with volume. MacKinnon is the most volume shooter you can get. The pressure will be on him and just a handful of others to provide the offense.
I looked at Mackinnon last two season playoff game logs. In the 2022 and 2023 seasons he played 27 games. He reached 5 or more shots in 19 of those 27. 70 percent.
I then checked what about the road. This was 13 games dating back last two seasons. He was able to reach 5 or more shots in 9 of those games. 69 percent.
This season in his three games vs Winnipeg, he has one goal and 3 assists on 13 shots. His shot totals were 5, 4 and then 4 again in the most recent game on April 13. So Winnipeg has prevented him twice from reaching what I need him to. However, it’s not enough to keep me off the play here. Though it’s something to keep in mind.
All the signs point to Winnipeg having the confidence. The goaltender, the season record head to head, and home ice advantage and to start. Colorado will need to do something to flip the script to have a chance and take some momentum. MacKinnon will need to shoot and test Hellebuyck every chance he can get. And Mackinnon always seems to oblige where sometimes other players don’t.
Nashville +120. This is my least favorite play. But if I needed to identify a potential underdog that could cash, this is the one I landed on. My initial thought was a goal to be scored in the first ten minutes by either team. But it’s currently-145 odds and feels a little chalky to me.
I looked at Nashville on the road dating back to March. They played 11 games. They had 6 wins, which isn’t the greatest percentage, but still solid in the fact it is a winning record.
However, they were able to score 3 or more goals in 8 of those 11 games. The xGF matches this as well. High Danger Shots For were 8 or higher in all but one. Which was the last game of the season. The fact the offense is this dangerous on the road down the stretch, when teams are probably feeling the most fatigue and anticipation of the playoffs starting is impressive to me.
Their ability to get chances and convert them over the last two months on the road, makes them a live dog to me. I’ll roll the dice with Nashville taking game one at +120.
Just to recap, Rusty not so confident plays for me today are
Colorado Mackinnon Over 4.5 shots on goal -130
Nashville potential upset win +120.
I felt most confident about The Rangers race to 3 due to Washington’s recent and season long struggles of scoring on the road. I don’t feel as great about these two.