Written by Graeme on Friday, April 23rd, 2021
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A winning night last night with our lone NHL tip of the Carolina Hurricanes to defeat teh Florida Panthers. The Canes went in with a good record against the Panthers and continued that in a 4-2 victory.
We liked the Avs too but too many potential red flags there so stayed away. They got a convincing 4-2 win with Dubnyk in net.
Red Wings had a huge 7-3 win with Vrana getting 4 of them. THat was awesome to see.
Quiet Friday with 5 games tonight. Let’s see what we got:
Sabres vs Bruins:
Back to back head to head. Bruins have covered the -1.5 twice now against them. That’d be the only play. But at about 1.74 odds? No thank you.
Rangers vs Flyers:
Back to back head to head. Flyers won yesterday and of course are fairly decent underdogs. If you go by the advanced metrics of matchups between the teams I’d have Rangers as slight favourites. No bet here but Flyers probably have value.
Blackhawks vs Predators:
Jesus christ these two playing again. No I got nothing for this one.
Flames vs Canadiens:
Wow. A game that isn’t an instant repeat. Been a whopping 9 days since these two last played….twice in a row.
Flames are slight favourites here. Flames are the more rested team. Habs showed a lot of fight in that Oilers game.
Matchup wise, Flames have been the better team. Habs xG against them is very low in most games actually. This is a tough one. I think the odds are spot on. I could lean either way easily.
Kings vs Wild:
Minnesota are that team I struggle to bet this season. I just find it hard to get full confidence in them. In saying that, the odds today are appealing considering the Wilds run. Would have to be in regulation so let’s dive into it further.
Kings are still vying for that final playoff space of course. They are inconsistent at the very best. They gave up Carter but we often see teams step up when they trade away someone big. They have about a 34.6% chance of making the playoffs.
Wild have won 5 of 7 against the Kings. One red flag is three of the 5 have been in OT.
Looking at the matchups between the teams advanced metrics wise – Wild generally have a slight edge. But it’s not overwhelming. One of the biggest differences where Wild have the edge is in HDCF which is always a tad concerning – it’s more about the Kings giving them the chances.
Unfortunately what this means is the Wild aren’t overwhelming by the numbers and I can’t advise them.
No plays tonight.
To WIN: Minnesota.
Minnesota has had a day off, and tonight play the Kings, then the Sharks tomorrow, then gets three days off. Plus they’re in a rosy situation in the playoff race. If I were Minnesota, I’d likely want to play to win tonight and then look at which players with play-through injuries or fatigue to possibly start resting early (during the San Jose game). LA is a low-penalty team, San Jose is a high penalty team. So tomorrow is when I’d not bet on Minnesota to win, because they may not put much effort into it. LA has weak offense and the Sharks are easy to score on, but it’s all a blur at that low level. Wild could easily win both.
Don’t see much else, but the Boston game to go UNDER 6.5 is very tempting. >>> CORRECTION<<< : just noticed a rookie goalie is in net for Buffalo, Luukkonen, so not taking any UNDER in that situation.