Written by Graeme on Sunday, April 23rd, 2023
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Another winning night collectively and individually in what was a great day of playoff hockey.
We had 3 of the 4 games go to OT, with the Avs and Kraken having an absolute back and forth banger as well.
The Leafs were very fortunate to get the win, and I thought both our bets were bust there. That 2nd period performance by them was absolutely ludicrous. Only thing I can think of was the team had a universal adrenaline dump.
Devils kept themselves in it with a tight win over the Rangers. That’s one thing I was concerned about – I saw that from NYR just weeks ago.
Let’s get straight into Sundays:
Islanders vs Hurricanes Betting Tips:
Scott: Game 3 was tied 1-1 after the 2nd but in the 3rd the Isles scored 4 goals in a 2:18 which was the fastest 4 goals in Stanley Cup playoff history and won 5-1.
As expected the Isles home crowd was loud and helped push them to a win.
After the momentum they gained in the win and still having the home crowd behind them I like them to win this game too.
Isles win incl OT
Graeme: That rally by the Islanders in the last game was mental. It was a very close game up to that point. Canes though never really got going. They had a strong start to the game then just kind of fizzled out it felt.
I’m actually a bit concerned looking at their xG for 5 vs 5. They’ve never hit the heights of that first game, even if they did score 3 goals in that situation in game 2. They have an SCGF/60 of 0.42 in 5 vs 5 over the series thus far which is brutally low.
Yep – this team has some serious offensive concerns. That, plus the home crowd and momentum as Scott mentioned, has me thinking they can pull this one off.
Islanders win incl OT
Ontario: 1.84 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.84 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -119 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.81 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2023/04/23 8:16:41 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Panthers vs Bruins Betting Tips:
Scott: The Bruins won in Florida and lead the series 2-1.
The Panthers were down 4-0 but didn’t give up and scored twice. The Bruins held them to only 4 shots in the 2nd period which is impressive considering the Panthers led the league in shots per game this season.
The Bruins look good and have a chance to win the series at home in game 5 when Bergeron is expected back.
Bruins in regulation
Ontario: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +100 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/04/23 8:16:41 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: I was glad the Panthers got those two late goals. Not just because it helped push my over bet, but I didn’t feel they deserved to be grannied in that game. They had played well.
However this is a big pressure game for them. They don’t want to go to Boston 3-1 down. Problem is – Florida this season showed they can’t handle the pressure too well. They lost a lot of key games in their run to the playoffs.
But I do feel they still know how to unlock the Bruins D. They had some great chances on Friday. A great xG.
There is a concern about their goalie situation though. And I mean that’s not a discussion you want to be having before a crucial Game 4.
Bruins made some big adjustments going into that game, and Florida will now have to adjust themselves.
I think Bruins should be favourites yeah, but I do see some value on this Panthers line. I’m just concerned about the talk over Lyon, plus whether the Panthers can handle the pressure or not.
Those two factors are enough for me to say No Bet, as bad as I want to take some perceived value on Florida.
Wild vs Stars Betting Tips:
Scott: The Wild went back to Gustavsson and they won 5-1 to take a 2-1 series lead.
The Stars now face heading back to Dallas down 3-1 so I expect them to have a better game here. But if the Wild again go with Gustavsson then he may have another strong game.
No Bet
Graeme: We’ve seen momentum swing in this game, and the Wild are hoping that the switch to Gustavsson will keep it firmly on their side. To be fair, Dallas had an absolutely woeful offensive performance in that one compared to their previous two games. All the metrics across the board are lower. Just 3 HDCF in 5 vs 5 (compared to 9 and 12).
Their xG in the first two games in all strengths? 4.63 and 3.17. Last game? 1.34.
That could of course just be the venue switch. Dallas should be able to put in a much better offensive performance.
My concern here is the odds. I like Dallas to win, but 1.95 isn’t the odds I want. That feels like a negative EV play, considering after they switched venues, Dallas got absolutely blasted.
So while I like them to bounce back, I can’t advise backing them to win. However, I do think there is value in Over 5.5 Goals. If the Stars offense is able to play better (and let’s face it they can’t play any worse) then that should hopefully be enough to push this one over.
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.09 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +109 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.09 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2023/04/23 8:16:41 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Kings vs Oilers Betting Tips:
Scott: McDavid scored twice but the Kings stayed in the game and won 3-2 in overtime.
This has been a close series with 2 of the 3 games needing overtime but after the Kings won game 3 on a questionable goal the Oilers have to come out and find a way to stay ahead of them.
I wish the odds were better for the Oilers to win including overtime but I still think they win and will take them in regulation. McDavid finally scored so he is going to have to get them the win.
Oilers win in regulation
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -105 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/04/23 8:16:41 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: Oilers go into this series 2-1 down, but are heavy favourites at 1.60 odds to win.
They certainly deserved to win that game and were unfortunate. Unfortunate that there is a mass conspiracy against them by Gary Bettman and the entire referee organisation, if you are to believe reddit.
Over the 3 games thus far, the Oilers have been the better team in most metrics. The only one they are lacking in is SCGF/60 with a 2.18 to the Kings 2.8.
I kind of like Oilers to get the win, but I’m not confident enough in regulation here. Especially with tonights referee probably busy throwing darts at a picture of McDavid as I type this. Plus I have a soft spot for the Kings. They displayed their quality in the run up to the playoffs, and I can’t knock them.
No Bet
No bets.
Lean: to WIN: Oilers
I don’t bet on early games, so that’s 2 of 4. That first game is far too early in the day for a playoff game if you ask me.
Maybe a tie in regulation for the Dallas game. I am expecting the Oilers to take charge of this series by getting scoring from depth and being better at staying out of the penalty box. They have it in their grasp, but need a little more self-discipline. LA is relentlessly speedy, their one main strength, which gives them capacity to disrupt playmaking and get the odd garbage goal, and that has me off betting. The penalty box is also too much a disruptive factor.