Written by Graeme & Scott on Wednesday, April 23rd, 2025
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Have to laugh – Scott had Leafs in regulation last night, I had Sens incl OT and I said to him as soon as I saw what we picked; bet everything on Leafs to win in OT now.
Yep that’s what happened.
A tough loss for the Sens who I thought were particularly great in the 2nd and 3rd period, after a slow start. Funny seeimg Domi going from zero to hero so fast.
The canes got the solid win over the Devils. Panthers opened the series with a big win in Tampa, and big props to the Wild. That Knights defense is disappearing at the worst possible time.
Three games today.
Capitals vs Canadiens Game 2 Betting Tips:
And sure enough Caufield scored to get the ball rolling and Suzuki tied it up with about 4 minutes left. Ovechkin scored in overtime to win it 3-2 for his first playoff overtime goal.
I just have to think that the Habs saw how close they were and how things changed when they scored.
Canadiens win incl OT
Ontario: 2.71 Odds at TonyBet
Canada: 2.71 Odds at TonyBet
USA: +160 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.60 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/04/23 9:12:01 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: One notable thing in that last game was the high xG stats. Even though it didn’t translate to as many goals as you’d expect based on that – you had the Caps with 3.61 xGF and Montreal 3.05 xGF.
Based on that – and granted it IS just one game – I’m going with Over 5.5 goals which I feel is nice value considering the offensive output in that game.
Ontario: 1.88 Odds at TonyBet
Canada: 1.88 Odds at TonyBet
USA: -118 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.83 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/04/23 9:12:01 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Avalanche vs Stars Game 3 Betting Tips:
Scott: Game 2 was a good one. Both teams were scoring and it was close through 2 periods. The 3rd saw the Stars score to tie it and force overtime where they won it.
With game 3 in Colorado and the series tied 1-1 I do expect a big game from the Avs as they need to take advantage of home ice.
Avalanche win in regulation
Ontario: 1.90 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 1.90 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -118 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.90 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2025/04/23 9:12:01 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: Stars with the comeback in the last game to win it. MUCH better performance from the Stars with a great xGF which I happened to not notice as much in Game 1.
I was hoping to go with the over here based on that – but the line is 6.5 which is too high for me.
The metrics are quite concerning with the Stars not scoring as much overall obviously, but a much bettter xGF.
I’m going to be the first one to go with a No Bet for the playoffs. I actually think the Stars might be value here, but the swap to home ice for Colorado has me concerned.
Kings vs Oilers Game 2 Betting Tips:
Scott: The Kings had scored 4 goals before the Oilers responded. But once they got going they looked good.
They need to get their offense going early and not be playing catch up for most of the game.
And with the team they have the Oilers can certainly score. Now with the nerves settled a bit I expect this to be another good game and for the Oilers to make a series of it.
Oilers win incl OT
Ontario: 2.26 Odds at TonyBet
Canada: 2.26 Odds at TonyBet
USA: +115 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/04/23 9:12:01 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: I wonder if this is going to be an insane series like last year on the goal production front. Hilariously, the xGF for the Oilers wasn’t that high at just 2.62. Kings offense was mental in that one at 4.51.
I’m going to go with Over 6 Goals incl OT and hope the Kings continue to play the way they did, and drive that offense. Plus I am pretty sure I could score on Skinner.
Ontario: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -105 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.00 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2025/04/23 9:12:01 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Do you always take “All situations” into account when looking at xGF, xGA? If you look at only “5V5” metrics, the xGF for the game are much lower than what happened. I’m not judging just asking to refine my ideas…
If the nerves are subdued and penalties not as plentiful, than this may be a lower scoring game??
Yep for sure. Sens/Leafs Game 1 is the perfect example of where “all” metrics don’t tell the story at all, and when you look at 5vs5, you see a different game altogether.
Majority of the time, they are the same or similar and its not a big deal. But there are definitely games such as that where it’s a big difference.
Then compare 4vs5, 5vs4 etc although that can be a bit harder as you have no idea how many penalties will take place etc
k cool… thanks. It’s tough making a call sometimes eh. I mean, in the end, betting should be about making a little and fun NOT stressful, HAHA
Playoffs are definitely trickier. Regular season is easy, as you can really go by the data and you’re good. Playoffs there are a lot of other factors and I mean teams are playing head to head etc all the time and it gets weird. Look at Kings/Oilers last year. 11 goal game, 10 goal, 7 goal then 1 goal game lol. Not something data or all the analysis in the world can predict.
However it’s also a learning experience as well. When you spend more time with the data you learn more, become more comfortable with it. Truthfully for the 2 plays above, I was able to glance at the data and new within a minute that was what I was going with (although I did do further research).
McDavid; OVER 0.0 Assists
Montreal: +1.5 (amazingly, gets X1.60!)
Caufield: OVER 0.0 points
Lean: Oilers moneyline WIN
Montreal has a lot of talent and has no quit in them. They also have that unteachable ability to add volcanic spark when needed. Washington is what it is, but I can’t see Montreal losing by 2 or more goals, and I can certainly see them winning this game.
McDrastic and several other Oilers showed what they’re capable of, but only after wasting the first two periods with regular season effort. Then they controlled the game and turned the rink into an airport. LA has talent and some puck handlers who like to crash a net, but look what they’re up against. No way does Edmonton take even 10 minutes to warm up, let alone 40 minutes.