Written by Graeme on Monday, April 24th, 2023
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What a disappointing performance that was from the Islanders yesterday. Up until they actually scored out of nowhere, they really didn’t even look like they wanted to win.
It wasn’t like they were being dominated or anything. It was similar to the Leafs 2nd period against the Tampa. Just no fight to them at all, and “going through the motions” would be a compliment.
It was another fun day of NHL playoff action. Game of the day was obviously Oilers vs Kings, although Stars vs Wild was an uber tight game as well. Those two just have to go to 7.
Let’s get right into todays NHL action:
Rangers vs Devils Betting Tips:
Scott: The Devils took game 3 to overtime which was a big boost to them after losing the first games at home and won.
They went with Schmid in goal and it paid off for them. The Rangers turned the puck over 19 times so they will need to clean that up.
After seeing Schmid and how he plays the Rangers will have to adjust which I think they will and will have to cut down on turnovers. I had called the Rangers to win the series in 5 and I still like that.
Rangers in regulation
Graeme: Rangers were unfortunate to lose to the Devils in OT I’d say, but it was still a fairly tight game.
The problem for the Devils is their offense is yet to show up. Like at all. The goalie change helped them out last time for sure, but you have three games of inefficient offense racking up a 0.94 SCGF/60.
It’s one of those things – if they managed to show up tonight, then more power to them. But I’m good to bet Rangers in Regulation and just hope the Rangers aren’t going to randomly hit a bout of bad form like they did in March, just when they were looking like a team we could really count on.
Ontario: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -105 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/04/24 8:47:48 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Lightning vs Leafs Betting Tips:
Scott: The Leafs managed to send the game to overtime despite playing like shit in the 2nd period. They had only 16 shots through 2 periods and 22 before overtime.
The Leafs got lucky in game 3 and they will have to be much better in game 4. But the Lightning are still at home and can even the series up with a win and make it a best of 3.
Lightning win incl OT
Ontario: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -105 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/04/24 8:47:48 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: Leafs got the very fortunate victory against Tampa. That’s the type of results you need in the playoffs – totally against the run of play. My concern with that though is that, in that 2nd period in particular, it was the fact that they just didn’t look like they were even on the ice.
Even overtime. They looked completely and utterly done before stealing that one at the end. That’s a big concern. You do have to wonder if they build from this though, and come in with more confidence.
The metrics for 5 vs 5 give Tampa the edge, although Leafs have a slightly better xGF. In all situations, it’s pretty similar with Tampa the edge again.
So this is where it gets tricky. As looking at it, I feel like 2.00 is the exact 0EV line. Anything above that, is +EV. Unfortunately, Tampa best I can see is 1.95 at Bet365.
So I’m going to go no bet. As I’m also wary of there being a trend. Leafs didn’t show up in Game 1, showed up big in game 2 (granted with Tampa a couple key injuries). Didn’t show up game 3. Do they show up tonight? Too much gamble for me.
Jets vs Golden Knights Betting Tips:
Scott: Game was nuts. The Knights were up 2-1 after the 1st and 4-1 after the 2nd. But in the 3rd the Jets scored 3 unanswered to tie the game and force overtime. It was a physical game with 108 hits with the Jets throwing 69 themselves.
With game 4 in Winnipeg the Jets need to take advantage of home ice and tie the series or face going back to Vegas down 3-1. But Morrissey left the game with a lower-body injury and will miss the rest of the 1st round which is a huge blow to the Jets.
Without Morrissey out I would think the Knights win this game. But after a double overtime game I have no idea.
No Bet
Graeme: As someone who hates the Jets purely down to betting, I must admit I got a chuckle out of how that last game went down.
Anyway yeah I’m carrying my regular season boycott on betting off them onto the playoffs. I’ve decided that for certainty. So no bet.
Looking at the metrics, Knights have been the better team in 5 vs 5 across the board, although it’s a lot closer when we look at all situations, and Jets have an SCGF/60 which is better than the Knights.
With how open that last game was, I could see similar and if there was one play I’d go with tonight I think it’d be the over 5.5. Both are putting up a combined 5.78 in XG, and after the last game I could see similar.
Kraken vs Avalanche Betting Tips:
Scott: It was the first playoff game in Seattle for the Kraken. The fans were loud and proud but it wasn’t enough for the Kraken. The game was tied after the 2nd but it was all Avs after that.
The Avalanche had a big games from MacKinnon, Makar and Rantanen and won 6-4.
With MacKinnon and Makar scoring their first goals of the playoffs you have to wonder if they will come alive. Makar won the Conn Smythe last year.
Avalanche in regulation
Ontario: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +100 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/04/24 8:47:48 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme:I backed the Kraken in the last game and they certainly made it a contest. They were able to pull back from 3-1 down to tie it up and I thought they would come out firing in the 3rd. Unfortunately, the Avs got a couple of quick goals and that was all she wrote.
I still think the Kraken can contest this series. Unfortunately, they are really struggling to create chances. Their offense is actually overperforming goals wise based on the metrics, while the Avs offense is underperforming based on chance creation.
What this is all pointing to is that the Kraken offense need to step up more, but even if they do, it just might not be enough.
I just feel at this stage, a bet on the Kraken is too much of a gamble. Over 6 I like slightly more today, but that’s also still too much of a gamble for me. I have my concerns about that Seattle offense. I really hope today is the day they really get rolling, but they’ve had three games and are still not performing well, so it’s hard to see.
No Bet
Really appreciate the early posting guys. Great insight as always. I’m going with Tampa tonight and hope the Vasilevskiy bounce back kicks in.
Also like that Jets Knights over.
Yeah I am loving the playoffs for being able get things up nice and early. Plus so much less data to pour over etc 🙂
I think I really like the Over 6 on the Leafs, Bolts game tonight.
I don’t hate it. That series is heating up even more so have to expect more penalties etc. And I mean Samsonov played lights out late on but he had a stinker first period last game. Vasy isn’t looking good.
New York Rangers ML 1st period +160
Going with 4 plays. This is my least confident. But I do like the value. I don’t believe it’s completely correlated to the outright winner, but if you told me I had a Rangers -155 ticket, and it was tied or the Devils we’re winning after the first period I wouldn’t feel very confident in it cashing. The more the Devils hang around, the more confident they can get. Same goes for their goalie in net. In the first games, the Devils looked like a team coming in with tons of talent, but no experience to handle the moment. When they did close ups on Vanecek he looked like he was hyperventilating he was breathing so hard. Like he ran a marathon. They made the right move switching goalies. The Rangers should do everything they can in that first period to re establish the control they built, and if they fail to do that in this spot at home up 2-1, this will turn into a seven game series quickly.
Vegas Team Total under 2.5 +128
I believe there’s some value here based on the spot. Vegas has scored 5 goals in each of its last two games, winning both. The last being on the road and needing double overtime. They got their road win. Pressure goes back on Winnipeg in front of their home crowd to even the series. If Vegas find themselves down how much effort do they exert to get back into it? The next game isn’t until Thursday so you can argue the extra day between games would allow them to push, but with them being up 2-1 and set to go home I’d kinda disagree. If it’s a one goal game, sure the effort will be there. But if they are down 2-0 or 3-1, they may just look to get out of there and focus on recovering and winning the next game. Winnipeg doesn’t have the same luxury, will have to play a full complete game and I do think has to answer somethings defensively to have a chance.
Winnipeg -102
Once again I like the value getting the home team in this spot as a slight underdog.
Tampa Bay -105
The play I feel most confident in out of the 4. That’s not saying much based on how dangerous Toronto is, and how Tampa just hasn’t looked like the team of past years this season. While they are still a good team, everyone’s looked a tad worse. However, looking at Tampa’s home record 28-8-5 compared to the road record of 18-22-1, I don’t see how they’d be able to win two games in Toronto. Which is something they’d have to do with another loss at home here. Winning this game would set Tampa up to only have to win one of the two games potentially left at Toronto, a much easier task. You could say well they’d still have to win their home game before it gets to that potential game 7, and you’d be right. But they’d already have one shot at winning a road game before then. Also if hypothetically the series plays out to where we get a Tampa game 6 at home, I don’t think we see Tampa as a home underdog there. Hence why I see value on Tampa -105 here.