Written by Graeme on Wednesday, April 26th, 2023
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Everyone is still alive in the NHL playoffs. The Carolina Hurricanes had the opportunity to wrap up their series against the New York Islanders, and were fairly dominant but just couldn’t get the goals going.
The Stars got a massive win over the Wild to take the lead in the series, and the Oilers also take the lead with that big win over the Kings.
Tonight we have just two games. We could see Florida eliminated as they visit Boston, and we’ve got a tied 2-2 series between the Kraken and Avs.
Here’s our thoughts:
Bruins vs Panthers Game 5 Betting Tips:
Scott: The Bruins depth has been the story here. They set records during the season and are amazing. But to see players up and down the line contributing is scary. And to do it without their captain Bergeron is wild.
I don’t see this going any other way than the Bruins winning the game and series at home. I called the Bruins in 5 so I’m going with that.
Bruins win in regulation
Ontario: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -150 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.74 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2023/04/26 7:16:57 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: The Panthers have did what they could, but it looks like it’s about time for Boston to put this series to bed.
I said prior to the series beginning that I liked the Panthers offense to rattle Boston somewhat, and we did see that in Game 2 with that big 6-3 victory.
They have been unable to recapture that glory though. In 5 vs 5, their offensive metrics have actually been better in the Bruins in a few spots (CF & xGF) although in all situations, it drops somewhat.
They just haven’t been able to convert. Meanwhile, the Bruins have an xGF of 3.99 and a GF of 4 meaning they are playing right on the money and in that sweet spot.
It’s completely possible that we get a Game 2 situation where the Panthers offense are able to convert at will. But it’s funny looking at the Panthers on the brink. All I can think of is that Tampa series last year, where they lost Game 3 and just completely gave up and partied at the peelers all night long prior to the next game.
The Bruins power play unit has been a big factor in this. I think Bruins can win this in regulation, but at odds of 1.74 it’s a bit off-putting for me.
The over at 6.5 is too nasty as well, as I worry Panthers heads will go down. No bet for me on this one, as when I look at the 5 vs 5 data it’s too close for comfort, but I get the feeling the Bruins wrap this one up. No Bet.
Avalanche vs Kraken Game 5 Betting Tips:
Scott: The Kraken were up 2-0 after the 1st and the Avs scored 2 of their own to tie it in the 2nd. A Colorado penalty in overtime gave the Kraken the man advantage and they didn’t waste it when Eberle scored the winner. The Kraken out shot the Avs 43-22 and dominated play in the offensive zone for most of the game.
McCann was injured and won’t be playing in game 5 which will hurt the Kraken.
I would think that the Avalanche would win this game at home but the Kraken will be riding the momentum from last game.
No Bet
Graeme: Kraken got a much needed win, and now head to Colorado looking to take a huge lead back to Seattle.
The 5 vs 5 metrics are very close, with both offenses slightly underperforming there.
Makar is out for the Avs, but McCann is out for Kraken which is a very tough spot. We do see teams perform after losing a key player.
I think the Kraken are certainly a match for the Avs, but I’m just not seeing enough to say that I can actually advise and back it. No Bet.
2-game Parlay I’m looking at assembling:
1) To WIN moneyline: Boston, plus
2) Full game OVER 5.5: Leafs/Lightning (Thursday)
(plus any MLB, AHL or whatever else shows up)
AHL today: Calgary Wranglers moneyline
Strong lean: WIN reverse puckline +1.5: Seattle
Maybe: Boston puckline win
The parlay gets the odds to X2.20
The Seattle lean is about X1.64
The AHL bet alone is about X2.24
Makar being out will be a minor adjustment for the Avs, they’re used to it this season, but more of an opportunity gain for Seattle, in strategy leverage. The odds on a Seattle moneyline win are very good of course, but I may try watching the game and maybe spring for a full game moneyline bet that way if the game looks suitable for it in the 1st Period. Risky of course.
Also considering the Boston puckline win, as when Boston wins the puckline is common. Florida may or may not play well into the second half of the game if they’re behind, I don’t know, they’ll likely be prone to taking an extra penalty or two if they try to play over their heads, and may be forced to do that or face elimination against a brick wall Boston control of play. Boston’s penalty kill is currently running at 93%!
Nothing against Colorado, I like them as a team, they are high talent and great to watch win, but they have a few major players out now, and for Seattle to take this series based on full team effort instead of a few superstars, would be terrific for the game. Seattle is for real this season, and they know it.
Calgary Wranglers have a serious edge in having high-skill NHL-proven players (Wolf, Pelletier, Duehr, etc.) in the mix and a very strong recent and season-long record. Abbotsford is OK, but this game goes to the peaking Wranglers on a rampage!
Best of luck, everyone!!!!!!!!!!
Tonight I feel the Bruins -1.5 and Avs -1.5 are good value bets. Both should be better both ways, though Makar’s suspension is a bit of a downer.
The Avs should be way better than the Kraken, and although it’s been closer than expected, I think the Avs will take a comfortable win tonight.
Bruins are up 3-1 and, like you said, Panthers tend to give up when they’re far behind.