Written by Graeme on Friday, April 26th, 2024
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Apologies for the delay in posting today. One of those days where I was just absolutely slammed with work from the get-go and couldn’t find the time to focus on NHL until now.
Yesterday we saw the Panthers and Hurricanes take 3-0 leads in the series. I said yesterday that I kinda liked Tampa until I looked at the metrics and in particular, that Panthers offense. I wish I had backed something related to them but I was concerned about the goalie work in Game 2. As it is they went to town.
Islanders – man, they look like they are out now. Canes are just too good.
It’s a busy Friday with four games. All series except Rangers/Caps is tied. Due to time constraints I’m just gonna list the best odds with no links today.
Capitals vs Rangers Game 3 Betting Tips:
Scott: The Capitals looked better in game 2 but the Rangers still won. Things could start to get rough after Panarin hit Oshie with a huge hit.
I picked the Rangers to win the series and I still like the chances of that happening. If the Caps are to win a game it has to be this one. But after game 1 and how pathetic they looked I just can’t see them playing that well 2 games in a row.
Rangers win in regulation 2.00
Graeme: A better fight from the Caps in Game 2, as their offense came to life.
At home, I have to think it’s going to be similar. They know they need to go balls to the wall here and can’t rely on defending. What was notable was how clinical their offense was in Game 2 and I think we will see more of that. Their ability to convert high danger chances was huge.
I’m going with Over 5.5 Goals 1.91 again.
Predators vs Canucks Game 3 Betting Tips:
Scott: The Canucks have to find a way to win without Demko.
The series is now 1-1 and going to Nashville for a couple games. The Canucks have to show life without their starter or this series could be a short one.
If the Canucks can win a road game without their starting goalie then the team could use this as motivation to help them. But the Preds can’t let up. They know the blow the Canucks took when he got injured and need to take advantage of it. They shots were low in the last game so the Canucks have to shoot more and make Saros earn a win. We have seen it before when a backup goalie comes in and wins a series so the Canucks will have to watch tape of how the Knights did it when Hill came in and took over a series.
I do see the Preds winning this game and probably the series now with Demko out. But the Canucks need to find a way to win.
No Bet
Graeme: No Demko made a big difference. Preds offense by the metrics was even weaker than Game 1 in quite a few of them. But they could convert almost at will it felt. Two HD goals. Pity for DeSmith as his HDSV% isn’t actually that bad compared to Demko.
I think we’re going to see the Canucks up the offense and try and take it to the Preds. I’m going with Over 5.5 1.83 in this one as well.
Avalanche vs Jets Game 3 Betting Tips:
Scott: The Avalanche tied the series up and now head to Colorado for the next 2 games. After the way the Jets have been playing the Avs need to take advantage of playing at home here.
The Jets know they lost home ice and need to retake it so what better way to do that than by winning the 1st game on the road.
After the insanity of game 1 the Avs played better defensively and they need to build off of that and playing at home after having to deal with the Winnipeg white out the home fans should come alive for the Avs.
Avalanche win in regulation 2.05
Graeme: The Avs were the much better team by the metrics in Game 1. Things were a bit tighter in game 2 in some aspects, but that xGF/60 by the Avs and the HDCF was freaking nutso. I’m also good with Avs in Regulation 2.05. They have had solid enough xGA as well. Where they are conceding goals is primarily in the high danger spots. So you can’t back the Jets to score as much (which is why I’m not going with the over) as they can shut that down.
Kings vs Oilers Game 3 Betting Tips:
Scott: The Kings won 5-4 in overtime to tie the series up. They kept McDavid in check holding him to only 1 assist after he had 5 in game 1.
The series is now in Los Angeles for 2 games. Kempe and Kopitar had a good game and they will need them to do it again.
The Oilers know that they can’t go down in this series and they have the firepower to do damage. Even if the Kings can contain McDavid again they need their other stars to take over a game.
Oilers win incl OT 1.74
Graeme: Man I almost felt like I was writing off the Kings in Game 2, so props to them for coming back and giving us that reminder about the Oilers goaltending.
Oilers had an xGA of just 2.26 in that one as well. Now the venue switches and things could get interesting.
I was trying to find examples of the Oilers getting lit up with a low xGA, and how they reacted in the next game to see if they tightened up. Never really saw much there but there does seem to be a consistency of it continuing to happen in a couple of game span.
Based on that, and just the general concept of the Oilers having to score more, I’m going to go with Over 6.5 goals incl OT 2.05.
Washington Ovechkin Over 2.5 Shots -160
Rangers have contained him thru first 2 games. Now at Home and with last line change, Washington should get Ovechkin out there with some favorable matchups. It’s heavily juiced but I think he can get to three shots.
Colorado Nichushkin to score +180.
Mackinnon at home was first look but he’s heavily juiced. When looking at the goal scoring locations, Nichuskin fits the bill. He has already scored a goal in each of the first two and I look for that to continue. His style just matches up to the goals Winnipeg concedes.
Edmonton Hyman to score +130
Nashville Josi to score +350
This one is a reach. But looking at Desmith, this is the best value for me.
Nashville -115
Predators are just playing playoff style hockey and doing what it takes to win. 30 Blocked shots last game. And have held the lead for most of the two road games. They have to keep the home ice advantage. And take advantage of every game that Demko doesn’t play.