Written by Graeme on Saturday, April 27th, 2024
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Whew – what started out as a poor night for me turned into a mini-profitable night. Neither of the early games went over, and props to the Canucks for holding the Preds like that.
Rangers/Caps had the goaltending that really helped and it was gutting that the Caps couldn’t get a goal in that third period.
Thankfully the Avs bailed me out with the in regulation win, and the Oilers went to TOWN and got me the over 6.5. Always feels like a dirty little win but I ain’t complaining.
Scott crushed it with a 3-0 night, as he had Rangers and Avs in regulation, plus the Oilers to win. Excellent night overall, as the playoffs continue to be nice and profitable.
Islanders vs Hurricanes Game 4 Betting Tips:
Scott: The Isles went with Sorokin as their starter in game 3 but they pulled him after he allowed 3 goals on 14 shots.
The Isles are now facing elimination and with the way they played I’m not sure they can stop the Canes. They are just a deep team that are playing great.
I want to take the Canes to win but the Isles will be going hard now facing elimination.
Would have to be in regulation and I wouldn’t be surprised but the Isles are going to have to show life and are still in New York.
No Bet
Graeme: By the metrics, Islanders best effort was in Game 3. They actually had rare better metrics than the Canes in Corsi, Fenwick and xGF% – the latter by a huge amount. They showed that they are capable.
But the way I see it that’s their best effort and they’re going to be out of ideas here.
I like Canes in regulation, BUT with that effort that the Islanders put in – maybe they have one last big home game and come out victorious? They know they were unfortunate in Game 3. Or do they just collapse after that mentally? I gotta go with No Bet as well.
Scott: The Panthers are up 3-0. The Lightning were up 2-1 early in the 2nd but the Panthers came back to win 5-3. The Lightning had the best regular season power play but went 0-4 with the man advantage.
At this point I just can’t back the Lightning. The Panthers are playing great and Bobrovsky is incredible at the moment. I picked the Panthers to win the series and I guessed it would be in 6 games but now it doesn’t look like it’s going to go that long.
The Panthers are going to win this series but the Lightning have to have one win in them I would think.
No Bet
Graeme: Panthers offense continues to run the show. They are onf ire and Tampa doesnt look like they can stop them. They were due a big offense performance and they delivered. They have been the overwhelming better team all series.
If Tampa have something to stop em here then props – Vasy gonna have to be standing on his head and that’s an understatement. But who knows maybe they spent all last night at the strip club. I’m going with Panthers incl OT
Ontario: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: -123 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.80 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/04/27 9:30:11 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Leafs vs Bruins Game 4 Betting Tips:
Scott: Well the Bruins went with Swayman in game 3 and picked up their 2nd win. I know the Bruins are all about alternating starts with their goalies but for them to have Swayman win both of his games and Ullmark losing his only start of these playoffs they should maybe use Swayman moving forward.
The Leafs are missing Nylander and his skill which takes away some of the depth that this team has.
If the Bruins win this game then they head back to Boston with a chance to win the series at home. The Leafs can’t let that happen. They are still at home and can’t let the Bruins win both in Toronto. If the Leafs can win then they would tie the series and make it a best of 3.
Leafs win incl OT
Graeme: Reasons basically similar to why i backed Toronto in Game 2 – they can bounce back. They have that capability and they show it. Sometimes a loss just wakes them up. That Game was definitely concerning with an xGA of 5.07 and a few other weak metrics. But I like the Leafs to bounce back tonight, tis the Toronto way. And hey it’s win-win because even if I lose the bet and the Bruins win, I’ll be a happy lad.
Leafs win incl OT
Ontario: 1.87 Odds at Sports Interaction
Canada: 1.87 Odds at Sports Interaction
USA: -115 Odds at Intertops.
Everyone Else: 1.87 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/04/27 9:30:11 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Golden Knights vs Stars Betting Tips:
Scott: The Knights won both games in Dallas and now play 2 games at home.
It must be overwhelming for teams to come into Vegas to play a game when the organization puts on such a show with actors and theatrics. Just a great way to get the home crowd into the game. It’s the hardest place to play as a visiting team in the playoff.
The Knights at home seems like the play to make here.
Knights win incl OT
Graeme: Can the Stars shake the Knights hoodoo? This is their last chance to do it. I mean sure there is Game 4 but if they lose here, mentally they absolutely have to be done.
It has to be tough for them as they have performed well. Their metrics are generally better. They must be sick of the Knights. Does the venue change mean much? They were superb on the road in regular season. Knights however were a lot more impressive at home.
Based on the Stars mentality, and the Knights home record, I gotta go with Knights win incl OT here. Props to the Stars if they can come back – they definitely don’t deserve this based on the way they have played both here and in the regular season.
Ontario: 1.90 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 1.95 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: -105 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.95 Odds at BetOnline.
(Odds correct as of 2024/04/27 9:30:11 AM EST but are subject to change.)
I’m really leaning towards Islanders winning and forcing the series to go 1 game longer. Last game for the Islanders was the first game, they put up and won some of the metrics. Carolina had zero High Danger shots in Game 3. Carolina was also held to an xGF under 2.
Problem is, Game 3 was the Islanders best chance. And that Game 2 Carolina dominance is still sticking out in a glaring way. Can the Islanders contain Carolina to the exact same level for a second straight game? Also the game script may have played a role in some of those Game 3 metrics. Carolina took an early 2-0 lead in the first. And though Islanders tried to respond in the second, Carolina was able to answer back. The pressure isn’t on the Canes, and if they coasted for parts of Game 3 you can’t really blame them. Also Varlamov struggles with the mid danger shot during the season. He actually struggled with everything down the middle from all ranges, but posted a .783 Save Percentage from the Middle Mid Range. Which was his lowest Save Percentage from all quadrants. Carolina doesn’t have to get to the dirty areas to score and convert their chances.
My lean is Islanders +160. But the Game 2 metrics for Carolina are just too difficult to ignore. Carolina can win this game a variety of ways, whereas the Islanders need another near perfect game to do so. Or Carolina just to take their foot off the gas, not show up and mail one in. The early start time, and a seemingly insurmountable 3 game lead, that is a possibility. But I feel like even if the Islanders take an early lead, it would be a sweat until the final horn. There is an Islanders +260 three way line to win the first period. I’d rather that, then a full game. Would not be surprised if the Islanders force a Game 5, before getting overpowered by an agitated Carolina team.
Goal Scorers for Carolina vs Islanders.
I don’t have a good feel for an Over Game Total for this game. So I try to narrow down the list in situations like that.
For the Islanders I landed on
Horvat +230
Palmieri +260
I would go more in depth on the choices but the game is about a half hour away. Both of these make my list.
For Carolina it was tougher because the list was longer. I Had 5 players after a first round of cuts. And because the goal total could be low, and taking two Islanders, I have to narrow that down again. The five were
Aho +180
Most consistent. Most likely. I think he’ll be a selection.
Svechnikov +260
Like the value and chance at the price. However Carolina has so many options, can I rely on it?
Necas +230
Getting better odds on Svechnikov makes it easy for me to ultimately pass on Necas.
Slavin +1000.
Low expectations. But whenever i see the +1000, I start to talk myself into it. He’ll probably edge out a better choice like Svechnikov. Then end with one shot while Svechnikov finds one lol.
Jarvis +240
Jarvis got here because he keeps sticking out as a potential. But the shot selection isn’t backing it. I took a play on Jarvis in an earlier game that lost. And this might just be stubbornness.
My final plays will be
Islanders to win first period on the three way line +260. If the game script goes a certain way, I think this gives the most value. And I don’t have to sweat the whole game. Of course it could be a tight first period, or another Carolina dominating performance which would kill the bet. Islanders could get back in the game late. but i figured if that happens and I want to take it by seeing something with the metrics or eye test, I can get better odds with a live wager.
Islanders to score
Horvat +230
Palmieri to score +260
Hurricanes to score
Aho +180
Slavin +1000
I’ll be kicking myself if Svechnikov scores. I think I should have taken him over the reach on Slavin
I’ll have other plays in a separate post.
Also I’m seeing Nylander is expected to play for Toronto. The speculation of his absence has been a severe migraine due to a possible concussion.
to WIN moneyline: Florida and Carolina
Prop: Aho Over 0.5 points
Props for Boston’s Marchand:
Over 2.5 shots, Over 0.5 points
Lean: Marchand gets at least 1 assist
Toronto is getting Nylander back, but I have to ask the question if he was held out long enough for the migraine/concussion to have resolved and he’s truly at 100%, or if he’ll be cautious of any hits or entanglements, especially near the boards or around nets. Playoff hockey against Boston is rough contact. His return will force a slight line change, so I hope they put him on Line 3 or 4 and keep the Domi line together because they’ve found effectiveness at the net and they have to win today.
Carolina is too good and was all year. They’ll want the maximum rest before the next series and will focus on nailing this win.
I can’t see that Tampa has the depth or resilience this year, and Florida has depth and is on a heater.
I don’t understand Dallas, but there are patterns in the games that Dallas needs to overcome: 1) don’t take penalties because Vegas scores on the powerplay, and 2) control the last few minutes of each period because Vegas has been scoring a lot of goals there. If you get a lead, NEVER sit back and just try to coast to the buzzer. Attack!
I lean Boston at +110. Won’t play it as I’ve taken two goal scorer props instead. I just haven’t been impressed with Samsonov’s play in the series.
Marchand to score +250
2 goals in the last game. One was an empty netter. Has recorded at least a point in every game in the series. 4 games in the regular season vs Toronto he had a goal and 4 assists on 18 shots. Only 2 high danger shots during the series. But he can get there and scored 16 of his 29 from there in the regular season. I like how he’s been able to get to the mid range. 7 of his 12 shots have been from there. And a lot of Samsonov’s struggles have been from this location. He’s been relatively quiet as a goal scorer since February, but the two last game out might get him rolling.
Zacha to score +330.
Yet to score in the series, but had 3 goals in the 4 games vs Toronto in the regular season. Scored 9 goals over the last 21 games of the season and shot the puck at over 20 percent during that span. Finished fourth for Boston in both shots and shooting percentage for players with over 100 shots or more. Could get on the board tonight.