Written by Graeme on Tuesday, April 30th, 2024
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The Florida Panthers move forward to the second round of the NHL playoffs, with a resounding offensive performance againt Tampa.
That have the 2nd best offensive metrics so far in the playoffs in xGF with 3.94. A very hot offense and made more impressive by decidedly lower Corsi & Fenwick compared to other teams.
Dallas got the all important win over the Knights yesterday to tie it up. Good chance Dallas take that series. The Knights have been pretty piss-poor metric wise, with some real bad defensive issues.
Four games tonight. Hopefully the Leafs put Leafs fans out of their misery and don’t drag this out any longer than necessary.
Bruins vs Leafs Game 5 Betting Tips:
Scott: The Leafs looked just pathetic in their last game. They were yelling at each other on the bench which is never a good sign when they have been playing like shit.
With this game in Boston and they way they have been playing and not being able to beat Swayman I don’t see this game going any other way.
If the Leafs win then great as I picked them to win the series but at this point they don’t deserve it.
Bruins win in regulation
Ontario: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
USA: +112 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.15 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
(Odds correct as of 2024/04/30 1:26:27 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: I mean what is there to say? That last game was absolutely horrendous by the Leafs. Mentally, they just look a complete mess. Yet despite that, their overall metrics aren’t too shabby. It’s just goals where they are failing at.
Honestly – this is one of those bets where I bet the opposite of what I want outcome wise, so it’s more a personal bet. Which is Leafs to win incl OT. If they win then great I win money. If they don’t, then hey they’re out and I’m happy either way. In saying that – there’s also enough to it to where I’m mentioning it here – they are still putting up the numbers in the metrics. Their xGF was piss-poor last game to be fair, but I think this team has one massive effort in them and we could see it tonight.
Ontario: 2.30 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canada: 2.35 Odds at Intertops.
USA: +135 Odds at Intertops.
Everyone Else: 2.35 Odds at Intertops.
(Odds correct as of 2024/04/30 1:26:27 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Hurricanes vs Islanders Game 5 Betting Tips:
Scott: The Isles got a win but still face elimination on the road. It took a 2nd overtime to be finished.
The Canes at home is the play here. They can’t let the Isles gain any more steam and go back to New York.
The odds for this are rough. We would have to take them to win in regulation and after that last game they Isles showed they can keep it close. But the first 2 games in Carolina the Canes won both with ease.
Canes win in regulation.
Ontario: 1.73 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 1.73 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -138 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 1.73 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2024/04/30 1:26:27 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Graeme: That was a big effort from the Islanders in Game 4, and glad they got that win. I’m a bit concerned by some of the Canes data last two games. Could be the venue change of course, but I’m going to pass on this one.
Jets vs Avalanche Game 5 Betting Tips:
Scott: After that crazy first game where the Jets won 7-6 the Avs have won the last 3 outscoring the Jets 16-5 in these games.
The Jets know if the lose than they are gone. They are going to need to find a way to get more past Georgiev who has been great since game 2.
I liked the Avs to win this series and I still do obviously. But this game is in Winnipeg and those fans are loud and will give the Jets an extra push.
No Bet
Graeme: This Avs offense is just stupid good. Such a better xG, converting so well, high danger goals are going in like crazy. We’ve learned from Florida that backing the strong offense is the way to go, and the Jets just aren’t converting. Game 1 was an anomaly I mean just look at the data. xGF of just 1.96. Avs to win incl OT
Ontario: 1.85 Odds at 888 Sports.
Canada: 1.85 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -114 Odds at BetOnline.
Everyone Else: 1.85 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2024/04/30 1:26:27 PM EST but are subject to change.)
Scott: The Predators were up 3-1 with less than 3 minutes left when Boeser scored twice completing the hat trick and tied the game at 3-3. 1 minute into overtime the Canucks won it 4-3 off a goal from Lindholm. The Canucks were forced to callup and start Silovs in goal with DeSmith also injured.
Now that the series is back in Vancouver and the Canucks up 3-1 they need to find a way to win this game and give the team a couple extra days off to get their goalies back to health.
I expect the Preds to continue shooting the puck as the Canucks are still without Demko.
strong>No Bet
Graeme: The Preds are actively shooting the puck more without Demko in net, but they’re not really taking the quality chances. I’ve been impressed with the Canucks. That 2-1 victory especially where they capitalized on just 12 shots.
This one just looks too tight to call for me. Lean on the Canucks, but I think the 1.80 average odds are on the money. No bet but I hope they wrap this one up here.
To WIN moneyline: Boston
Leans: Canes and Avs win moneyline
I’ve seen enough comments recently about how good the Islanders can play, that I’m off any bet on the Canes out of belief or hope. The Canes should win the game and series, but I’m not confident in picking exactly how on a game-by-game basis.
Boston is in peak form. Leafs are really struggling. This Toronto show needs a summer break.
Still looking at the Canucks game for possibly a player prop. The Avs are so damned fast. The Jets need to remember that whatever talent a player and team has, it’s doubled if they increase their speed so they get in and out of situations with that much more control, time to see the ice and make choices, make passes, avoid hits, get into position, etc. The Avs thrive on speed. How good would they be if they were 10% slower, and their edge of speed was removed? How good are the Jets if they maximize their speed, regardless of if it seems the situation calls for it or not? Initiative is pure gold.
Speed: I think the west wins the Cup this year, on the issue of SPEED alone.