Written by Graeme on Sunday, April 4th, 2021
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Predators got a nice and easy win yesterday in a 3-0 victory over the Blackhawks.
Of my potential plays – Islanders won but couldn’t get the job done in reg. Avs barely won and couldn’t cover the spread. Sharks got the win and the odds for that one still surprise me. I posted of them I liked the Stars/Canes over the most but that one didn’t come in. Canes had a whopping 43 shots in their loss.
Six games today with the Canucks game postponed. Think it will be awhile before we see them play again. The NHL at least seems to have a plan in place if the North Division season has to be extended.
Let’s look at todays games:
Lightning vs Red Wings:
Back to back head to head. Nothing for me.
Devils vs Capitals:
Do these teams not play anyone else? Seems like all they do is play each other. Anyway I’ve made my feelings on this one clear; Devils ride the Capitals hard enough that I can’t bet on Caps. However Devils are not worth betting. I honestly don’t know if there is a price I would back the Devils at.
Panthers vs Blue Jackets:
Panthers got some guys back yesterday and they duly delivered. It’s a back to back head to head so nothing for me here but I’d think they ride that momentum.
Hurricanes vs Stars:
Getting tired of typing back to back head to head. I just don’t like those games. I’ve analyzed them a lot and felt the best thing to do is skip them. The data still points to the over though.
Ducks vs Coyotes:
These two played two days ago and the Coyotes got the win. I don’t hate the Coyotes here. If you are looking for a play today this would be the one I’d take. Coyotes are trying to push for the playoffs although it’s still going to be tough.
They’ve had some solid results lately. Looking at the metrics and stats though I’m not fully convinced. I did like how they bounced back from that Avs loss. They’ve got the Kings tomorrow night.
Coyotes aren’t a team I love to back but this one has potential. I’ll look at it more and think about it and see.
Flames vs Leafs:
Leafs struggling to get the job done which is off putting. Hutchinson in net. Would have to be Leafs in regulation and I just don’t have that confidence.
So a potential play on the Coyotes is all we got today and I don’t feel super good about that one but we’ll see.
Who’s getting bored with this season? Let’s just get to the playoffs already
In some ways, yes, but I find the changing fortunes of teams interesting to keep up with, and the 2-game series I hope they continue in all future regular seasons. If teams had a 2-game series every other week or so, it cuts down on travel time and gives teams much more undisturbed rest and practice time, theoretically increasing the quality of hockey and reducing fatigue and injury counts throughout the regular season. What COVID is doing to some teams has no redeeming qualities. I hope all the teams get to the playoff start week in good health. Fans too. Also, I think the need for many teams to make huge changes, and the lurking presence of the Expansion Draft is really putting a strong element of chaos into the teams, and some players, and undermining stability and team chemistry. It’s oriented on “every man for himself” a little more than usual. After seeing Vegas do so well, it could be that lots of players would LOVE to get picked by Seattle!
You make some good points about both COVID and the expansion draft. I hope they consider multi-game series once things return to normal. It works for baseball and I think it could work well for hockey. It would also foster division rivalries.
I don’t know. For me I really enjoy analyzing existing games between the teams – of which we have so many – and using that as a basis for picks. It’s something quite different.
I can see how a “quant” like yourself would find the analysis compelling, but from a fan’s perspective it’s not quite as interesting. I agree with WR (below) that a baseball-style multi-game series might make things interesting when things open up again, but when it’s a handful of teams playing each other week after week there isn’t the anticipation that either the teams or fans appreciate.
I’m watching two and three-game series, for the reversal of when favorites lose the first game; they’re likely to win the second game. That pattern took a while to seem clear and it’s still hockey, so still high risk. It sucks when the first game is OT/SO or a one-goal difference and no obvious difference shows up between the two teams otherwise considered favorites/fades. Snore.
To WIN: Florida. Absolutely two teams on opposite directions this season, and Tortorella is a blind raging idiot for ruining it for Laine. Panthers are probably on a big playoff prep run now.
To WIN: Tampa. They’re at home, where they’re consistent. When Tampa loses, they still score three goals and may out-shoot the other team, and still lose. I don’t get it. A major defensive inconsistency on the road? 80% chance they win today.
To WIN: Arizona. Anaheim gets my vote to be the next team that’s bought out and moved to another city. They’re weak in every way and get no help in building or even maintaining the team. Coyotes are clearly out to win any game they can, and don’t let up.
Leans only:
1) Full game Under 5.5: Washington/NJ Surely these two teams bore each other and similar to a back-to-back situation, energy won’t be peaked and UNDER is where they gravitate. Now watch it be 9-6. No bet possible.
2) To WIN: Toronto. Calgary’s top two lines are scared of the puck, scared of offense, scared of being checked and scared of sports. But if their other players are tuned in, they sometimes win a game (Lucic, Mangiapane, Dube, Backlund, etc.), and Toronto has a habit of playing down to their competition.
Yeah I like the idea of teams playing a series of games but it feels like the repetitiveness of games is starting to hit now.
I’m going UNDER on Coyotes game + PANTHERS ML tonight.
Off topic but can anyone recommend a good blog, similar to this, but for baseball?
He has had a rough start but Vin over at https://www.sportsbettingtips.org for mlb
Cats TT over 3.5 – L5 O/U 4-1, CBJ 2-2, Korpisalo GAA 3.02
Cats reg -130
GLTA SDB
Easy win. Hurricanes ML with 10 units.