Written by Graeme on Sunday, April 7th, 2024
Follow @BetNHL
A winning night yesterday which puts me on a nice 8-2 run since the beginning of March. March/April are periods I find tricky betting, even moreso with me being away for a large majority of it, so that is pretty darn awesome.
And that’s following my 10-1 streak to begin 2024. It’s been a great season.
Yestersdays win was the Lightning/Penguins over and that came in nice and easy. Set at 6, that was a 9 goal thriller with a fantastic comeback by Tampa who then blew it.
Big upset as the Blackhawks defeated the Stars. Looking back at my write-ups, no other big surprises. Disappointing one from the Preds though.
Let’s look at Sundays slate which will have a bunch of B2Bs. Hopefully something jumps out at me:
Red Wings vs Sabres:
Wings coming off the Rangers loss. Sabres the Flyers win and playing quite well at the moment. On the road where they are 17-16-4. Wings though are solid at home and thumped Buffalo here 4-1 recently.
I was kind of hoping for a sneaky play on Buffalo but the metrics don’t suggest it at all. They lean more the Wings way but not enough to back them at that price.
Blackhawks vs Wild:
Hawks looking for another big upset going against the Wild, who have lost their last two. When you look at the data – certainly value on the Blackhawks. Especially considering the results of both teams going into this one. Not enough for me to advise, but one of those where I’ll probably roll the dice with a bet on the Blackhawks, even though I estimate their chances of winning at less than 50%.
Hurricanes vs Blue Jackets:
Last home game for the Canes in the regular season. Would have to be -2.5. No thanks.
Sharks vs Coyotes:
Nothing here. The data does point to a Coyotes regulation win though. Mathematically, ir’s probably a fine bet. Not one I am personally advising but I don’t hate it by any means.
Capitals vs Senators:
Nothing here. Wouldn’t surprise me if Sens pulled out the W but not something I am considering backing.
Rangers vs Canadiens:
Would have to be Rangers -1.5 and even then, the odds aren’t great for that. Their goals conceded is what really puts me off that. Not that the Habs are an offensive juggernaut or anything. If the odds were slightly better like say 1.85 or above, it might be a play.
Empty net stats could be a factor. With an empty net Habs concede 13 of 31 times. Rangers score against one 18 of 40 times. So they aren’t enough for me to make it a bet.
Devils vs Predators:
Metrics do give the possibility that this one could go over the 6.5 line, with both teams goals and xG all above 3 for for and against. But the Predators have just been blanked twice in three games. That’s too much of a concern for me.
Ducks vs Blues:
Nothing.
Avalanche vs Stars:
Stars on the B2B, happy to pass. By the metrics, they’re actually the much better team and you’d think they would want a big bounce back result. But I’m wary of teams after a streak is over. No bet.
DISCLAIMER:
Don’t bet with real money on my opinions.
I’m a stupid better, who wastes tons of units to gain minimal profits.
Units now: +44.12 🥳
max combined units used to win a bet: 163
Detroit still has about a 52% chance of making it to the playoffs and are 3 points ahead of the Sabres. Detroit will definitely try to kick ass today. The big question is whether the Sabres’ goalie proves to be a joker today and ultimately gets them the win. I don’t think so.
I take Detroit ML* @ 1.73 with 1 unit
DISCLAIMER:
Don’t bet with real money on my opinions.
I’m a stupid better, who wastes tons of units to gain minimal profits.
Units now: +44.85 🥳
max combined units used to win a bet: 163
After watching them playing yesterday, I can see them winning here today.
I take Nashville ML* @ 1.8 with 1 unit
DISCLAIMER:
Don’t bet with real money on my opinions.
I’m a stupid better, who wastes tons of units to gain minimal profits.
Units now: +45.65 🥳
max combined units used to win a bet: 163
I take Dallas ML @ 2.05 with 1 unit