Written by Graeme on Saturday, April 8th, 2017
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Hopefully you followed my Lightning in regulation bet last night because that ended up being a nice profitable night at the bookies. Tampa won in regulation over the Habs to keep their playoff hopes alive.
That was not an official bet so won’t be counted in our stats.
It was just a one game night but I had my fill of sports anyway watching the Masters from open to close last night.
When it comes to betting, I don’t think there’s any sport I love watching more than golf. It’s so easy.
You’re essentially sitting there cheering on 1-4 people while rooting against the rest. So it means you’re hooked at all times(at least in the early rounds). Makes it so fun to wach.
In regard to the NHL itself – we’ve got two games that actually mean something tonight.
The Maple Leafs host the Penguins while the Islanders visit the New Jersey Devils.
I’ll analyze both of those in a minute but first I want to let you know the other bets I’m making tonight. As a reminder these are not official tips.
Blue Jackets to Win: I just feel like 5 losses in a row for the Jackets is enough. They’re missing Werenski which sucks but I believe Bobrovsky will be back in net tonight. Assuming he is I’ll be betting them to win. I feel they have too much pride and they’re going to give this one a go.
Capitals to Win: No odds on this one yet. Not sure I’ll be betting it but I’ll need 1.80 or above. Capitals have beaten Bruins the last 8. Bruins are a tough team for sure but I think they’ll lose this one. Neither team will push too strong and the overall quality of the Capitals will win out – especially with Krug/Marchand out. However be sure to wait and see who is being rested for this game as that will be a factor.
Hurricanes/Blues Over 5: I think we’ll see a better performance from the Canes after that Islanders loss. That was such a brutal way for them to start that game and they looked bad. In their home finale I think they’ll turn it up especially for Bickell. Blues are hoping to lock in 3rd place in the Central and I can see this one being a good match-up.
Sabres/Panthers Over 5.5: There’s a few key injuries, and these two have often had games that just go off. I’m going to back that here in a no pressure game that these two give the fans something to cheer for.
And then we have two.
Leafs vs Penguins:
The Leafs haven’t beat the Pens in regulation since 2013. Only 2 wins since that date to the Penguins 8 and they couldn’t do it in regulation.
Leafs go into this off the back of two huge and demoralizing losses against the Capitals and the Lightning. The Capitals because it was a reminder of how far the Leafs have to go in terms of quality, and the Lightning for obvious reasons.
I think the Leafs do it tonight.
I have nothing to back that up. There’s even word that Malkin could be back tonight for some limited action. Regardless, I just have a good feeling about the Leafs tonight. I’ve watched live around 80% of their games this season, and I think back to the way the Leafs have performed in a lot of the games and what they’re capable of.
I’m betting Leafs to win(Not anymore – see edit below) – dependent on the odds. Not up yet but I’d say has to be at least 1.80. I’m not confident enough to go with regulation though. I’d also advise waiting till closer to game time to see the Islanders/Devils score. If the Devils are winning I probably won’t bet the Leafs. I’ll have to see how I feel.
10:32am Edit: Shortly after posting the tips, the odds came out. The Leafs are around 1.70 which is unbettable in my opinion.
If you’re Canadian, I HIGHLY recommend signing up at Sports Interaction this very moment. You get a $20 free bet and take it to bet on the Penguins.
The reason is Sports Interaction is exclusively Canadian, so all Canadian teams get a lot of action. The Pens are 2.20 most places, 2.35 at Sports Interaction right now and that will probably go up during the day.
It’s going to be some great value, so if you’re Canadian sign up at Sports Interaction and use that free $20 bet on the Penguins.
Islanders vs Devils:
Islanders have to win in regulation. Simple as that. They’re playing a team who they have beaten 11 times in the last 14 matchups between the two since January 2015.
I’m not feeling it.
I just get the feeling this is where the Islanders crash and burn, and pull them out of the race. The stats don’t suggest it. The odds are bloody nice all things considered.
I won’t be betting this one. However I think Islanders in regulation is +EV if you wanted to go with that.
Leafs just opened as a -140 fav. Terrible value and won’t be touching that. Hopes of playoffs are coming really close to an end.
TIPS FOR TODAY
Sat 04/08
Columbus ML
-115
Washington ML
+115
Minnesota REG
-105
Colorado/Dallas over 5.5
-120
GLTA!! Especially The Maple Leafs, you need it!!
Damn that Leafs line is surprising. This is why it’s nice to be in Canada – Sports Interaction people are pounding the Leafs so the Pens are at 2.35 there already. Going to let that go for a bit then hop on the Pens I think.
Pittsburgh REG @ +205 does have great value. One great thing about sports interaction. I see this leveling out soon, it’s soo strange. Interesting to see how the value of the team is backed by people blindly betting Toronto. With such poor value driving the real favorite team under to balance the books.
Malkin and Matta were skating this morning. If they play tonight them I am going for Pens reg which is already at @2.9
Mates, what do you think of the money lines: Blues, BlueJackets, Wild?
Bigger q is Sabres to win in OT, Toronto to win at OT. Personally, I would really like the leafs to win at regulation. I feel they will win in regulation actually.
Stars and Oilers parlay, just for fun?
To WIN: Islanders and Stars.
No way I’m betting on Toronto/Pittsburgh. The uncertainties in that game also prevent clarity on the Over/Under option. Minnesota playing better recently, but only beat Colorado 4-3 on Thursday so they’re no source of confidence yet, for a game they would normally win easily. If Nashville and Winnipeg show up to play a good game, that one should go OVER, but will they?
Dosent Toronto need to win to clinch play-off?
Yes. The Toronto Maple Leafs will clinch a playoff berth tonight if they defeat the Pittsburgh Penguins in any fashion.
I can see Detroit reg @2.26 as a very god bet. It is their last game of this season and Radulov, Pacioretty, Markov, Emelin and Price didnยดt even travel to Detroit.
A little weird time for betting, we don’t know what are the targets of each team in these games. For example Winnipeg-Nashville seems going over5,5, but will they play really well? Maybe live betting is preferable now.
Flyers, Rangers, Kings and Jets.
What do you think about Montreal ML? Odds are 2.05…
Radulov, Pacioretty, Markov, Emelin and Price taking a night off
St. Louis ml?
I will take this one most likely or the over, Im not sure yet…
My betting for tonight are: Toronto reg, Islanders reg, St. Louis ML! Ill put 50$ on that!
Congrats
Going for Hawks, most of their players back, lost 3 times in a row, I think they will take it tonight…
I think today we’ll see some high scoring games so I am playing a huge combo just for fun:
Flames – Sharks over 5.0
Wild – Yotes over 5.5
Avs – Stars over 5.5
Preds – Jets over 6
Blues – Canes over 5
Sabres – Cats over 5.5
Pens – Leafs over 5.5
Hawks – Kings over 5.0
@ 106.3
Enjoy it!
As single I like Jets 1P ML @ 1.93
GLTA
Pens as a big underdog smells like sh!t… They simply can’t be @ 2.55 vs Leafs. Doesn’t make sense! I think they will show to the bookies who is the boss. Lol
With Fleury I think over @ Pens should be possible. ๐
Oh yeah! I saw it before place the bet. I am gambling a little so let’s see how it goes. It’s better to watch a game with a bet in ๐
Adding:
Pens ML @ 2.55 (Malkin is out)
Jets in reg @ 2.52
For the Jets game I took 1/5.5+ at @4, do you like it?
Yes, it looks good. Many important players for Preds were announced 10′ ago by leftwinglock to be out tonight. GL
Well I hope there will be someone for them to score. I dont think Jets will score 6 or more ๐
What’s about https://www.nhl.com/news/nashville-predators-winnipeg-jets-game-preview/c-288562216 ?
I was expecting Jets to be leading after 1P… Let’s see if they are able to hold Preds offense in the 2P.