Written by Graeme & Scott on Saturday, April 9th, 2016
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It was a 2-1 night on Thursday. Hopefully we can continue this fine form into the playoffs.
Our loss was the Leafs/Flyers game and that was actually a really interesting game in terms of sports psychology. We’ve got a bunch of articles lined up for the Summer and we’re going to go into that game in-depth. The first 25 minutes of that game were enthralling to watch from a psychological aspect and it’s an aspect that many people just don’t ever really think about.
With 15 freaking NHL games today, we decided to do a rare “separate tips” for each game. See – when we do it separately we only spend about 10-15 minutes on each game. When we do them together though it can take up to an hour per game and yeah we just don’t have that time to spare when a lot of the games are essentially meaningless.
So we both analyzed each game separately and then have combined the tips to cover every single game. Enjoy! Not sure if we will have any tips yet for Sunday nights games or not but if not don’t worry we’ll have playoff series prediction posts up soon. Meeting up tomorrow for beers and wings and to go through it all.
Due to how many games there are each game will have only a couple of sentences analysis from us:
Red Wings vs Rangers Betting Tips:
Graeme: It seems almost mindblowing to consider the NHL Playoffs without the Detroit Red Wings yet here they are. The potential results still favour them but they really need a win and the sportsbooks are expecting that with their odds. While they obviously have a lot more to play for – the odds to me means we have to bet on a Rangers win. Most likely a situation where everyone is betting on the Wings, bringing their price down.
Scott: A must win game for the Wings just like the Bruins. This is tough to call. I would take the Wings to win because this team always seems to win when it counts.
Senators vs Bruins Betting Tips:
Graeme: Much like the Red Wings, the Bruins need the win. However I like the Bruins chances better against the Senators. Senators have been tricky opposition for the Bruins at times but I couldn’t help but be impressed with Boston against Detroit, and will take Bruins in Regulation.
Scott: I have to think the Bruins win this game. A win would make the Flyers path that much more difficult and would force them to win their final 2 games.
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Penguins vs Flyers Betting Tips:
Graeme: Holy crap what a game this is! Philly can still get in the playoffs but they have a lot of holes in them, and like we said in the beginning – psychology is a big factor for them. I just don’t think they have what it takes here mentally after that Leafs loss and love the Penguins odds. Penguins win.
Scott: Just like the above mentioned games, this is another must win game. The Flyers have a game in hand over both the Bruins and the Wings. I like this game to be Over 5.5
Ducks vs Avalanche Betting Tips:
Graeme: Ducks would like to win the Pacific so they have that to play for. However I like what I’ve seen from the Avs the last couple of games. Throwing caution to the wind and all that. I’m going to take Over 5 Goals.
Scott: The Ducks can jump ahead in the standings. They have another game to play tomorrow so if all goes will they can jump from 5th to 3rd. Ducks in regulation
Flames vs Wild Betting Tips:
Graeme: The Wild have had 4 huge losses and don’t want to end the season on a losing note. The Flames have been a blast to watch lately with the whole no pressure thing making for some exciting games. I’ll be hoping that continues with Over 5.5 Goals.
Scott: The Wild have nothing to gain or lose in this game as theyre assured the final wildcard spot. They should be resting a bunch of their players. Flames win
Hurricanes vs Panthers Betting Tips:
Graeme: You know what? I’m doing no analysis for this one. I’ve argued for and liked the Hurricanes so much this season that now I have the freedom to say what I want – Hurricanes to win! Suck it Scott.
Scott: Not much to say about this game. Have to go with the Panthers in regulation
Blackhawks vs Blue Jackets Betting Tips:
Graeme: After 3 solid performances the Hawks stuttered against the Blues. I like a convincing win tonight for the Blackhawks though and will take Blackhawks to win. It’s possible Crawford will start and that would be nice for them to get him a big W.
Scott: The Hawks should use this game to build momentum heading into the playoffs. Blackhawks in regulation
Lightning vs Canadiens Betting Tips:
Graeme: I would like to think the Habs will aim to finish strong. They’re going to battle all the way at least and I don’t think this will be a defensive clinic. Over 5.5 Goals.
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Scott: The Lightning can still move up in the standings. I like them to win in a dominating fashion. Lightning -1.5
Leafs vs Devils Betting Tips:
Graeme:While Leafs winning obviously benefits them – I liked the way they beat the Flyers. I also believe that having a tiny better chance of winning the draft over finishing strong is not something Babcock would prefer. I think Mike would rather make a strong statement of a strong finish and am taking Leafs to win.
Scott: The Leafs have had a bad year but this was expected thanks to their full on rebuild. With the a loss then the the Leafs would be last overall in the league and have the best odds of winning the 1st overall pick. Devils win
Sabres vs Islanders Betting Tips:
Graeme: Love the run the Islanders are on at the moment and I see them continuing that as they want to finish strong. These two usually have tight games but I’ll take Islanders in regulation.
Scott: The Sabres had a decent run at the end of the year and the Isles themselves are 7-3 over their last 10. Over 5.5
Predators vs Stars Betting Tips:
Graeme: Holy crap why are there so many games today I just want to stop caring about hockey and go relax before the Grand National. I actually see this being a fairly tight one and I’m going to take Under 5.5 Goals.
Scott: Stars are holding off the Blues and could win the Central with a win. Stars win
Capitals vs Blues Betting Tips:
Graeme: This just seems like one of those games where both teams will go off and Tarasenko will stand out and Ovi will have his own highlights. I’m taking Over 5 Goals.
Scott: Both have had strong years and should be a great game. The Caps have nothing to lose and should be resting some players while teams Blues can move ahead of the Stars for first in the Central as long as the Stars lose. Blues win
Oilers vs Canucks Betting Tips:
Graeme: Oilers season finished a couple of nights ago, their last game in the Rexall. They’re already on the course. McDavid probably going to enter the Masters today and win it. Because he’s just that good. Canucks to win.
Scott: Another game with nothing to lose for either team. I like this to be a goal filled game. Over 5
Jets vs Kings Betting Tips:
Graeme: Kings will be hunting the Pacific and a win here will do that for them. They’ve got back on the winning track with two nice wins although tight. I’m not 100% convinced by the Kings – their play the last few games hasn’t impressed me – but I think they may be able to give it their all tonight. Kings to win in regulation.
Scott: This would seem like a Kings win but they have been evenly matched over the last 10 games. I id take this one Over 5
Coyotes vs Sharks Betting Tips:
Graeme: The media kills me – talking a lot about how the Sharks have lost all motivation. What? Have they lost their last 5 games or something? I’ll take Sharks for a big win tonight. Sharks -1.5.
Scott: Sharks have nothing to gain or lose in this one and they should be resting some players for the playoffs Coyotes win
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15 games individually picked and we didn’t agree on even one lol. Closest we came was Bruins/Hawks win but one chose regulation, one didn’t. Now you see how hard it can be doing the tips sometimes!
Enjoy the hockey today people and thanks for visiting us all throughout the season!
15 games individually picked and we didn’t agree on even one lol. Closest we came was Bruins/Hawks win but one chose regulation, one didn’t. Now you see how hard it can be doing the tips sometimes!
Lol, love it ! Perfect way to (basically) end the regular season.
Thank you S&G, it’s really a pleasure to have your tips and a place to debate the games
Thanks for all your hard work getting the tips out every day guys
Thanks for the great season guys!
I think today it’s a good time to take the Grand Salami over again (+81.5) – Should be open games!
Totally agree, great odds on individual overs too. Look at the goalie match ups, some potential for big totals
Yeah. I see a lot of goals! Any value bets? Maybe Flames. Do the Wild will rest some players? Don’t have that much information here in Germany…
Just saw that Bs are starting Gustavsson.. I like the over there. Also, Calgary-Wild and Bolts-Wild
Great analysis as always. Looking forward to your playoff picks. Cheers!
With the greatest time for a hockey fan looming ahead, we still have this regular season finale. The next time we’ll see another big round of regular season hockey will be in ~6 months, so have to give it my best shot and just enjoy it.
That being said im sorry if anyone’s been reading my “tips” for last week, i’ve been sick/tired and as opposed to the normal 20 mins i spend thinking about a game, i’ve made my conclusions in 5 mins and probably shouldn’t have posted anything.
But going to try my best and hopefully at least my thoughts will be worth something.
Focus is on the early games first, will post more thoughts below later.
Senators @ Bruins OT 4.70 / +370
– We all know what this game is all about. Bruins have the season on the line and Senators are looking to play pressure-free hockey and play the ultimate spoilers. Now first of all, i would stay away from Bruins in regulation. Why ? Psychologically (the biggest thing i base my picks on and what i’ve been spending my time studying all these years) this is the worst type of game for the Bruins. They’d much rather play the Red Wings or Flyers, OR if the Senators were on a roll and had a 100% healthy team, even that would be better.
Right now the reality is, the Bruins should win this game 100% of the time. There’s no question about it, and no excuses. They simply cannot lose this game. They played a great game against the Wings, so naturally you’d (and they) think this game is in the bag. That’s just human nature.
Let me give you some recent examples of how tough this type of game can be:
Flyers lost in OT vs Leafs (must win for Flyers)
Bruins lost in SO vs Hurricanes (must win for Bruins)
Wild lost 5-1 vs Jets (Wild needed points)
Hawks won in OT vs Jets (Hawks wanted to get out of a slump)
Kings won in OT vs Flames (Kings wanted to get out of a slump)
List goes on and on.
Now obviously it would make things easier if the Senators had given up on the season like the Avs, and find every possible way to lose games, but they haven’t. They’ve been a competitive team recently. They lost to the Ducks in OT, beat the Jets, Wild and Panthers. Had a 3 goal lead vs the red hot Pens. Lost to the Flyers 3-2, but that was after winning 2 games in a row, so the Sens got in to the comfort zone themselves.
This is a long explanation, but bottom line is, the Bruins are just too damn big favorites here just adding to the already existing pressure. Average regulation win odds for the Bruins are set at 1.65. Do i really want to risk that considering all the results we’ve had ? No i don’t.
At the same time, i have a hard time seeing the Bruins lose this in regulation. They can overpower the Sens when they absolutely need to.
If you feel like going for the Bruins then you absolutely have to do it, and of course they can win, but to me those OT odds are crazy good here and worth the value. We’ve had these type of games go to OT so many times.
Red Wings @ Rangers
This is a game i can’t bet on. If this was just a regular hockey game i’d go for the Wings, as the Rangers are dealing with a couple of key injuries but despite that the Rangers are still a good team and at home. Normally i’d say the Wings will be able to outscore them after an even game. But i just don’t know what will happen with the Wings in this one. If i had to pick a winner i’d go for the Red Wings, but everybody and their moms are backing them making the odds ridiculously low. Just have to pass, and can’t even say if it’ll be a high or low scoring game.
Have to take this night step by step, will post more thoughts later 🙂
Well well, i knew it was going to be an extremely tough game for the Bruins, but i didn’t see them melting down this badly.
And the pressure bit the Wings as well, despite outshooting the Rangers they still lost.
It’s funny how detrimental pressure can be no matter how good of a hockey player you are.
But out of these 3 teams still battling for playoffs, i think the Flyers have the best chance to play a big game today. Im going to back them in this one.
They’ve lost 3 in a row so i’ll be damned if they can’t bring great effort and have their legs going. Crosby and Letang are out so that should make things a bit easier.
It was a great article but it was clear that Ottawa was looking for the upset and playing hard during the game. I went ML after the 1-2… Was offering 1.80 what a great price lolol
Yeah i was looking for that too, i pretty much had my mouse hovering over that Sens ML, but my laptop battery died and when i got it up and running again the Sens had a 4-1 lead lol.
Yeah the Flyers were a decent pick, but man oh man, Pens without Crosby, Geno and Letang and it’s taking literally everything from the Flyers to lead this game. Far from over.
Nice another win and I picked up the over 3.5 at the end
I wanted to hope on Chicago but damn so early -.- and the over 5 ducks and Avs was good value but didn’t catch it also
hey guys, are there any reliable live streams of the Sens-Bs game that don’t involve some sketchy website?
Apparently NHL TV is only $4.99 for the rest of the season. No brainer.
I hope i don’t do something wrong!
https://www.reddit.com/r/NHLStreams
You can find very good youtube links @ 720p.
What do you think about NYI tonight?
I think Islanders in regulation.
Also i like Ducks in regulation. I think they do everything to avoid Kings in first tour of play off.
I like Ducks and Wild in regulation and over 4.5 @ Oilers-Canuks.
Also i like over 5.5 @ Tampa Bay – Habs, Predators – Stars and Blackhawks-Blue Jackets.
Pittsburgh in regulation
Wild vs Flames over 5.5
Leafs vs Devils Over 4.5
Tonight picks,
Avalanche win %70
Jackets win %75
Flames win %70
Devils win %60
Canadians win %80
Sabres win %65
Stars win % %90
Blues win %85
Oilers win %70
Kings win %55
Coyotes win %85
Good luck all
What do you think about NYI tonight in regulation?
Slept early. Waiting for playoff’s ?
Pittsburgh sitting Crosby, Letang, and Fleury…
Ya the value is totally on Philadelphia ML
Wild-Flames OT (or Wild ML)
Devils to win their last game at home vs Leafs
Sabres-Islanders Over 5
Also feeling Sabres upset, Gibson in net for Isles and he’s not that good tbh
Something to gain in the standings vs nothing to lose doesn’t seem like a recipe for success for the former, Caps to win.
God damnit what a lucky bounce for the Flames, that had written OT all over it. And then the Wild take a too many men penalty 2 mins before the end. I guess when things go bad then they go really bad for the Wild.
It seems like the Playoff teams treat this as the season finale even though their seasons will continue.
Something to keep in mind on the Sharks-Coyotes and Kings-Jets games, doesn’t look like good teams are looking to sleep on any team tonight.
Except for the Lightning! What a mess!
Yup lol, although they’re without their top 4 players Stammer, Hedman, Kucherov, Stralman.. They’re probably not even much better than the Habs at this point.
True. Do you think L.A. and SJ can cover the PL easily?
Im not sure about the Kings tbh. Ducks won, so in order to win the division they need the 2 points. Jets are playing really well atm. and have nothing to lose, you’d think they want to upset the Kings in their season finale.
Pressure is on the Kings and it could turn out to be a weird game, i personally wouldn’t trust on the PL.
Sharks though ? Not sure. Depends how beat up the Yotes feel right now. Impossible to say for sure.
So to answer your question, nope don’t think these are good games for PL’s. But now that i said it they probably both cover the PL 😀
Canucks-Oilers OT, haven’t felt this confident about OT for a while.
Jets-Kings Over 5
Sharks in regulation
Nice run on those late night games!
Yup, 7-2 overall for the night, nice way to end the regular season 😀