Written by Graeme & Scott on Tuesday, August 18th, 2020
Follow @BetNHL
There were no eliminations yesterday but three teams were put on the verge of elimination in the Blue Jackets, Coyotes and Hurricanes.
Props to Tampa who are finally finding a way to beat the Blue Jackets and are just one game away from the gentlemans sweep over them.
The Avs finally figured out how to get past Darcy Kuemper and show everyone what they are capable of as they walked all over the Coyotes 7-1.
And how about those Boston Bruins? An epic comeback in the 3rd period as they scored 4 goals to win 4-3. Halak looked pretty soft in that one and that was the type of rally the Bruins needed.
Blues stun the Canucks by winning 3-1 and tieing that series up at 2-2. That will be quite the intriguing series going forward.
We’ve got 4 games today and it all starts at 3pm EST.
Flyers vs Canadiens Betting Tips:
Graeme: Such a tough series to call with both goalies having the ability to win a game for their teams. Hart has an xG against of 9 but just 5 against and Carey has an xG of 8 yet just 3 goals conceded
Looking purely at the advanced metrics, Habs have been the better team all 3 games. Especially that last game holy crap could we hit the post anymore?
There’s no bias here. This is as close to a 50/50 series as you can get and the Habs based just on the metrics have a slight edge. I’ll take the better odds in a coinflip any day of the week. Canadiens to win incl OT. Oh if Price is in net of course.
Canada: 2.20 Odds at Bovada.
Everyone Else: 2.20 Odds at BetOnline..
(Odds correct as of 2020/08/18 7:29:20 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Scott: After losing to the Habs 5-0 in game 2 the Flyers came back and picked up a 1-0 win in game 3 thanks to the strong play of Carter Hart.
I have a feeling that after the Habs picked up that win for coach Julien that got to comfortable. The Flyers had extra motivation when Oskar Lindblom took their morning skate after he has been out since being diagnosed with Ewing’s sarcoma, a rare form of bone cancer.
I feel like the Flyers continue with their winning ways in this game.
Flyers win incl OT
Canada: 1.76 Odds at BetOnline..
USA: -130 Odds at BetOnline..
Everyone Else: 1.76 Odds at BetOnline..
(Odds correct as of 2020/08/18 7:29:20 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Flames vs Stars Betting Tips:
Graeme: In what is another very 50/50 series, we can get slightly better odds on the coinflip on the Flames. In saying that, the advanced metrics are different for this one. Stars were 93% on the “Deserve to Win O’Meter” for Game 3 and also on Game 2 at 65%. That does have my slightly concerned looking at the metrics. I was initially ready to throw down on the Flames based on the price, however let’s hit up Highest Scoring Period = 2nd instead here. As based on the metrics, I’d lean Stars. And after winning this one last time it makes sense to roll the dice again.
Canada: +375 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv.
USA: +250 Odds at Bovada.
Everyone Else: +375 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv.
(Odds correct as of 2020/08/18 7:29:20 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Scott: What a performance from Joe Pavelski and the Stars in game 3. It was a back a forth game but Pavelski scored a hat trick and the Stars won 5-4 in overtime.
These teams have traded wins and I’m fine with following that trend and taking the Flames in game 5.
Flames win incl OT
Canada: 2.14 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: +110 Odds at BetOnline..
Everyone Else: 2.14 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2020/08/18 7:29:20 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Capitals vs Islanders Betting Tips:
Graeme: The Capitals are on the verge of getting sweeped. Can they mount an epic comeback? It doesn’t appear likely. Referring again to the metrics (generally during playoffs I like to focus more on numbers than anything else to throw off any bias I have had from watching the games and reading media narrative) Islanders deserved to win Game 1 & 2 but Caps game 3.
I could 100% see the Islanders taking this one. However over the years the Capitals have proven to be king of the comebacks. Also you know what? I feel indebted to the Capitals. Anyone remember when I tipped the Capitals to beat the Islanders back on January 18th? Caps came back from 4-1 down to 6-4 in the 3rd period. One of the highlights of the betting season for me.
I’m good to ride them here. That Jan 18 game was one of the highlights of the season betting wise and I am fine putting my winnings from that game on this one. Caps to win incl OT
Canada: 2.05 Odds at BetOnline..
USA: +105 Odds at BetOnline..
Everyone Else: 2.05 Odds at BetOnline..
(Odds correct as of 2020/08/18 7:29:20 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Scott: Well the Islanders have the Caps on the ropes here. They are up 3-0 and have been the better team.
I wouldn’t be surprised at this point if the Isles win this game and sweep the Caps. But I have to think the Caps will at least give it a go in game 4 so I’ll go with the Over
Over 5 incl OT
Canada: 1.77 Odds at BetOnline..
USA: -130 Odds at BetOnline..
Everyone Else: 1.77 Odds at BetOnline..
(Odds correct as of 2020/08/18 7:29:20 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Blackhawks vs Knights Betting Tips:
Graeme: I am glad I bit my tongue prior to Game 4. Just to rile up Scott I had initially written up a bunch of jokes about the Blackhawks leaving and how they don’t deserve to be here. Stuff like “Don’t let the door hit you on the way out because its Crawfords jobs to hold it open and he ain’t stopping nothing.” I would have had some real egg on my face after that one.
Avs vs Coyotes is what it’s all about – when the better team flexes their muscle. I’m good with Knights in Regulation. If Crawford is able to pull it off again then seriously major props to the guy. Or if the Blackhawks offense is able to do their job and outscore the Knights – so be it. I think Knights wrap this one up.
Canada: 1.82 Odds at 888 Sports.
USA: -130 Odds at Bovada.
Everyone Else: 1.82 Odds at 888 Sports.
(Odds correct as of 2020/08/18 7:29:20 AM EST but are subject to change.)
Scott: So Corey Crawford still has it. He was amazing and helped the Hawks avoid being swept by the Knights in the last game.
I know the Hawks should build off of his performance but the Knights are the better team and are a much deeper squad. I’m glad the won a game but I think thats about it for Chicago.
I’m not confident enough in a Knights regulation win. And the total goals so far have been 5, 7, 3 and 4 so not a fan of the over or under.
Just kind of want the Knights to rip the bandaid off and get this over with.
No Bet
