Written by Graeme on Sunday, December 10th, 2023
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No betting tips yesterday.
Had the Oilers in regulation on Friday. It was a little bit too close for comfort, but the Oilers managed to get the goals I expected, and were able to get the regulation win over the Minnesota Wild.
I’m a bit late getting to the tips today so I’ll pass on the Jackets vs Panthers game as it starts at 1pm. Probably not too much with the B2Bs today but we’ll see how it goes. Sundays always suck due to that. Honestly I think I will have to go through historical stats and see how often we actually have a play on Sunday – could be a justification for us to have a day off.
Oilers vs Devils:
It’s a weird thing with betting where you feel like you don’t want to back the same thing over and over again. I’ve managed to win on the Oilers twice in a row, and my first instinct is to pass. Not sure why that is. Almost feels like you are pushing your luck.
Devils come in on a good run on this West Coast trip with three wins out of three but are on a B2B. They have a losing record on B2Bs I believe it is 1-3 for the second leg.
The concern here is the Devils offense and their ability to produce. We know the Oilers leak goals. It makes the over tempting – buuuut then you have that back to back issue. It’s not consistent, but we do often see teams who start strong and then fade off.
Won’t surprise me if we see a big first period then a quiet game for the rest of it. Anyway with the Devils scoring metrics, I’m happy to pass on the Oilers here.
Rangers vs Kings:
Coinflip odds here. Rangers come in off two bad losses. Kings have an insane 11-0-1 road record – such a pity it ended against the Islanders.. Their GA/60 is mental – last 10 1.4. SCGA/60 of 1.2. But that result yesterday – dunno how they will react to that. I give the edge to the Kings, but we’ve seen teams crumble when streaks end.
Canadiens vs Predators:
The Habs are inconsistent at best at the moment. Preds just got railed by the Leafs last night. The metrics generally suggest that the Preds win this but I don’t have the confidence to take them in regulation.
Blackhawks vs Capitals:
Hawks pick up another win over the Blues. Washington are still pretty weird. I actually slightly lean the Hawks looking at the data to be honest. GF/60 and xGF/60 kind of cancel each other out, same with GA/60 and XGFA/60. SCG stats do lean more towards the Caps. If this wasn’t a back to back situation I’d probably take the Hawks here on a value play. Although Soderblom is confirmed so that would make it a pass.
Ducks vs Jets:
Ducks continue to be terrible. Jets racked up 3 in a row. Jets have a decent 7-3-1 on the road. I still feel like the Jets are in my bad books from prior seasons, but hey let’s look at the metrics and see if, like the Oilers or Blackhawks on Thursday, it’s overwhelming enough that I gotta take ’em.
Ducks better in Corsi which is a surprise. Same with Fenwick huh. xG the same. Oh yeah unfortunately this isn’t overwhelming enough for me at all.
Basically – it checks enough boxes that I can see the Jets winning in regulation. Ducks inability to score, and the Jets excellent goaltending metrics despite poor defensive metrics looks like it should be a win for Winnipeg. Basically it’s the type of play I don’t mind betting if I am watching the game, but I’m far off from actually advising it.
Kraken vs Wild:
Nohing for this one.
Knights vs Sharks:
Knights pshould get the W but it’d have to be on the -1.5 and only at 1.80 odds. Metrics make that look close. No bet.
I have a Columbus pick at +215 that I don’t have much confidence in. I just think the line is too high on Florida. Florida now up to -265. On December 5 LA was priced -218 on the road vs CBJ. I have Kings as a better team them Florida so I don’t think Floridas pricing should be this high. Watching Blue Jackets vs Blues last game out, they had good body language, were communicating with each other, and played competitive. That being said they are not a very talented team so this could backfire. But I think the line is too high.
Was also possibly gonna look at Montreal now +135 at home vs Nashville.