Written by Scott on Sunday, December 11th, 2016
Follow @BetNHL
A perfect night for us last night as we went 2-0 with a push
The first tip was the early game of the Flyers vs the Stars and we went with Over 5.5. At the halfway point of the 3rd period it was tied 1-1 but from there the goals started including the Flyers scoring 3 times in the final 5 minutes to pick up the 4-2 win.
Our other winning tip of the night was Over 5.5 in the Lightning vs Penguins game. The superstars of the Penguins showed up for this game as Crosby and Malkin both scored twice when the Penguins won 4-3.
Our other tip of the night was Over 5 in the Sens vs Kings game and the Kings won 4-1 hitting exactly 5 for the push. This was the 1000th game in a Sens jersey for Chris Neil so it only made sense for him to drop the gloves.
What happened with the Canadiens last night? They are without Galchenyuk and Desharnais so the offense was supposed to have some hiccups. But last night they went off scoring 6 goals in the 1st period alone when they destroyed the Avalanche 10-1. Pacioretty scored 4 times.
8 games scheduled for today so let’s get to the tips
Jets vs Oilers Betting Tips:
Both teams are on losing streaks. The Jets have lost their last 3 while the Oilers their last 4. So one of these teams will snap their streak today.
The Jets last 3 games have had totals of 8, 3 and 7. The Oilers last 3 games have had goal totals of 5, 11 and 7. The last time these teams played each other it was a on December 1st and the Oilers won 6-3
With both teams desperate to get a win this should be a great game. I expect it to be high scoring.
Over 5.5 incl OT/SO
Canada: 2.05 Odds at Sports
Interaction + $20 Free Bet
USA: EVEN Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Flyers vs Red Wings Betting Tips:
With the way the Flyers are playing right now it’s tough to bet against them. They are on an 8 game winning streak. And during this streak they have beaten some strong teams like Chicago, Edmonton, Dallas and Boston.
Over the last 10 meetings between these teams the Flyers have a 7-2-1 record.
I like their chances in this game and there is some decent odds too.
Flyers win incl OT/SO
Canada: 2.10 Odds at Sports
Interaction + $20 Free Bet
USA: +110 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 2.05 Odds at Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv
Canucks vs Capitals Betting Tips:
Now this is a game where we shouldn’t have spent so much time debating but we did.
You would think that the Caps would destroy the Canucks but once we looked more at this game we thought otherwise.
The Canucks are 6-4 against the Caps over the last 10 games. And now there is a chance that they are going to start Thatcher Demko who they called up from Utica. Demko has been strong over his last 6 games in the AHL going 5-1 with a .946 save percentage and 1.51 GAA.
I like the Canucks to get behind this rookie and give him decent shot in his NHL debut. What a way to come into the NHL against the Caps.
And when you see the odds this is worth the risk. We are either going to look like geniuses or fools after this game.
Canucks Win incl OT/SO
Canada: 3.48 Odds at BetOnline.
USA: +240 Odds at Bovada
Everyone Else: 3.48 Odds at BetOnline.
Mathematical/Experimental Betting Systems:
(All below systems are based mainly on mathematics and statistics with very little human input and are deemed experimental. Previous Records: 1st Period System 30-36 (+15.99u), OHL 28-15 (+17.15u)
1st Period System (10-24, -3.75u): Leafs 2.60.
OHL Betting Tips(9-11, -2.5u): Sault Ste Marie Greyhounds in regulation at 1.90 odds. Windsor Spitfires 1.77 odds.
AHL Betting Tips(15-7, +7.41u): Hershey Bears in regulation at 1.80 odds.
1st Period Betting:
Canadians: Sports Interaction, Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv & 888 Sports.
Americans: BetOnline. or Bovada.
Everyone Else: Bet365 (Americans: We recommend http://www.bovada.lv or 888 Sports.
OHL, WHL & AHL Betting:
Canadians: Bodog and 888 Sports.
Americans: Bovada.
Everyone Else: 888 Sports.
Hey guys I have been reading your game analyses and comments for a while and I have to say nice job. What do you think about hockey live betting? I have noticed that the odds on both teams to score lines go up a lot if one of the teams hasn’t scored a goal coming into the 3rd period. I wonder if betting on this kind of bet is just pushing pure luck or it could be +EV in the long run? For example yesterday I was watching the Flames – Jets game and I waited till the odds on both to score to go up to 2.8 before pulling the trigger and Jets scored with like 5 minutes to go in the 3rd. I know there is a lot of variance in hockey but this seems like value bets to me if the odds are above and beyond 2.5. What are your thoughts on this? And also do you think betting live on hockey gives you more edge than betting pre-match because you could see how the teams are playing etc. Thank you.
We both live bet a fair amount. We’ve tried to do tips via Twitter on that in the past(I think a couple of seasons ago) but unfortunately our lives/family etc make it impossible to do so because we’re rarely together watching NHL at night now and it’d take too long to discuss and then tweet.
We do feel there is value in live betting for sure. One big thing is watching momentum shifts in games.
What we’d ultimately suggest is coming up with a few scenarios for live betting, and then betting based on them and tracking it all in a spreadsheet. Live betting can be fun and you can get carried away – the trick to it is to make it almost monotonous in regard to your betting.
For example if a team is down 2-1 and they tie it up – back them to win the game. That’s a broad scenario but then you can whittle it down from there – tracking when they scored, their shots on net, if it was a PP or not, factor all that in.
Or all those games with 5.5 as the line. If it’s goalless at the end of the 1st it might be worth a bet on the Over 5.5. And you factor in the odds, the shots on net etc, whether there’s been penalties or not – basically trying to find the ultimate formula so that when something happens in game you know how to react and bet accordingly.
Yeah I have realized that live betting has great potential and could be very profitable if done right. I will start taking notes of different patters in games and try to translate these scenarios into a spreadsheet for analyzing and future reference. The only problem is that I am from Europe and can’t watch a lot of NHL in particular due to most of the games being played late at night and I usually fall asleep 🙂
Thank you again and good luck to us with today’s picks.
At least we have early games at the weekends, that start at 6-7pm. I can rarely watch “regular” games that start at 1am, 2am etc… because I have to wake up by 6, and go to work.
Where are you from by the way?
About live betting: for sure it has great potential. You can correct your pregame bets (if you have any), and minimize your losses that way, and sometimes I don’t even make pregame bets, because you can judge the teams better if you watch them for some time.
Unfortunately, posting live picks is quite challenging so it’s up to our decisions.
I am based in Bulgaria.
+3.5 after the 1st ist also good
Those stats are misleading for washington as they won the last 3 meetings.
One unit on on combo with Ducks, Blues, Jets and Avalanche.
ML included or regulation?
always reg.
Sens-Ducks Over 5 (incl. OT) @ 1.75
Flyers ML @ 2.16
Canucks-Capitals Over 5 (incl. OT) @ 1.85
Blues-Wild OT @ 4.00
Stars in regulation @ 3.25
Avs-Leafs Over 5.5 @ 1.85
Devils ML @ 2.50
Oilers in regulation @ 2.05
GL !
Well that Nucks-Caps over 5 was a bad play, don’t even know why i made it lol. Although it’s not over yet, but yeah.
But here’s me thinking: Canucks have been a great 3rd period team, so in a way this 1-0 deficit is almost a good result for them after 2 periods. They’ve been able to frustrate the Caps offense a bit, and the Caps are sitting on the 1 goal lead.
Bruins scored 3 straight against them last time the Caps played at home.
16+ odds for the Canucks to win it in regulation. Hefty odds in my opinion. Definitely not impossible.
Although Markstrom 0-4-0 vs the Caps doesn’t give me a lot of confidence. But that losing streak has to end sometime right ?
Just curious, what’s the thought process behind the Stars win in regulation, they haven’t looked amazing recently and hawks looked pretty good against the OT loss against the rangers
Well my thought process is that the Hawks are the more frustrated team at the moment. I thought the win against Preds was a big confidence booster for the Stars (losing in the final minutes to the red hot Flyers doesn’t change that, especially because they were able to bounce back after a loss last time), and they’ll come out determined to get a positive result here. Before the first game this year where the Stars were the better team but lost, they had won 3 straight at the United Center scoring 4-6 goals every time. As Crawford, Toews and Seabrook are out, pressure is HUGE on Darling right now. Everybody in the building are expecting him to continue being a wall out there, but im not so sure he can handle it. Seems like the perfect opportunity for the Stars big boys to take advantage. And of course the odds were tempting.
Forgot to mention that Darling hasn’t been good against Dallas before. So if he can step up big time tonight then so be it, but there’s a lot of things making me believe otherwise.
No idea why they went with Lehtonen. He’s been very anti-clutch this season, especially as of late. I expected Niemi to get the start against his former team, especially after Kari played last night… Terrible goal given up deflating the Stars again. And then some bad luck on that 2nd goal. Doesn’t look good.
New Jersey are playing terrible too.
Yeah just a shitty night all-around. A lot of the things i thought would happen just didn’t. For example i thought the Devils would show a lot of fight tonight but instead it ended up being a clusterfuck. Leafs not being able to put the puck past Varlamov to save their life etc.. And even though that Oilers pick ended up winning, it was my boy Laine who scored in his own net to cap off the night. Lol. Gotta love hockey, even when things aren’t going your way.
Flyers ML @ 2.00
Devils ML @ 2.25
December: 5/10 +1.50
GL to all!
Lion’s project 1/15 Flyers ML @2.05
Rangers in reg. @ 2.10 – After a good start to the season on home ice Rangers had a rough period, but have won the two latest. With 21 points for 15 games and +16 in GD combined with Raanta in net (7-1-0 and 1.83 GAA this season) I am picking Rangers over a Devils team that have lost 7 of their latest 8 games away from home.
Last night was good went 7-3 , i made before sleep combo with Cal,Sj @2.7odd and finish +4units.So today i am still waiting for some goalie conformation but for early i am going with a combo
DucksML
Caps ML @1.98
Singles:
Ducks over 5
Caps over 5
Fylers ML
Nyr-Njd over 5
Toronto ML
Blackhawks over 2.5g
Edmonton over 2.5g and over 5.5
3-1 yesterday, 8-3 last 3 days. Having a nice little run. Really liking the over in the Leafs game tonight.
So are the oddsmakers, it’s up to -125. Varlamov is in net and Avs are not a scoring machine. Is this a stats play or based on something else?
Part stats, part model, part Leafs D is nothing special and I think the Avs will want to come out strong after being embarrassingly dominated yesterday.
Antoine Bibeau in net for TML, his 1st NHL game. Do we know anything about him? Sometimes you see rookie goalies do really well in their debut because of adrenaline and the rest of the team is very focused defensively.
His record is average https://www.nhl.com/player/antoine-bibeau-8477312
> Ducks/Sens OVER 5.0
> Flyers to win
> Caps/Canucks OVER 5.0
> Wild/Blues OT
> Stars/Hawks OT
> Leafs/Avs OVER 5.5
> Rangers/Devils OVER 5.0
> ilers in regulation
Anthony Stolarz is confirmed against Detroit, not sure about a Flyers win without Mason in Net, 8 unbeaten streak is pushing it a little too.
Oilers reg – They are a young, resilient team who are very happy to be home and to have had a day off. Jets are coming off a game yesterday and a terrible on the road.
Oilers-Jets over – both teams have some snipers and the goaltending and defense on both teams has been leaky.
Flyers ML – I love the way they are playing and they are going to rally around Stolly in their own end. This one could be an under 5.5 but the value isn’t there
Blackhawks reg – Other than special teams, Chicago is by far the better team and should win this in 60 mins in their own building
GLTA
You think Flyers will still win with Stolarz in net? they are playing great Hockey, but I feel like with each extended win streak, their next game is closer to a loss, 9 in a row would be insane.
Stolly has seen NHL shooters before so I think he will be ready and focused. Team defense will protect him and they are running on all cylinders. Red Wings have been very respectable so you never know.
Last night it went 3/3
Tonight tips.
Blackhawks win in reg.
Blues win in reg.
Good luck everyone.
You wrote that you never bet on them again a day ago 😀
Sometimes you just say it to show your anger on them ?
Yes, I know what you mean 😉
Thought just to bet ML, because it is better for us.
Btw. take a look at this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJQqLsDxajo
😀 It makes me laugh every time. Hahaha
GL mate
Is that Marek Mazanec ??
No, but still better 😀
? I would like to see the full game!
Poorly there is no full source. Wanted to see it too. :))
But seems like there is a longer version
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gm0pXZSYmc
What do you think about O5,5 in Flyers game? I also think that Chicago may win in reg.
2016-12-11
Hi guys! Bad night yesterday, taken a different look into my system and i am now adding a 1k challenge in the spreadsheet, which will go under the name of “Bookmaker = Betsson” Even tho im betting on Bet365, but its just to make a difference between the challenges, Bookmaker = bet365 is for the 15 bets in a row challenges… And betsson for the 1k challenge 🙂 Just wanted another way to add all my bets simply and easly so thats how im doing it to provide more bets for everyone! =)
Lion project 1/15 (NHL)
Pick: Chicago Blackhawks (1.80)
Progress: 10kr>18kr?
Lion project 1/15 (NBA)
PICK: Golden State Warriors -11.0 (1.90)
Progress 10kr>19kr?
SPREADSHEET (15 bet challenges ) = http://www.betdog.eu/profile/Lawellys_Predictions