Written by Graeme on Monday, December 11th, 2023
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No tips yesterday primarily due to the quantiy of B2Bs.
Oilers continue their excellent run. Kings crumbled which I expressed concerns about. Jets were able to get the win I was leaning towards, and the Knights barely scraped the win in a shootout over the Sharks.
4 game slate today.
Sabres vs Coyotes:
Buffalos so weird lately. Whole bunch of losses and then that random Bruins victory on the 7th. Coyotes after a nice run have now lost two on the trot and you have to wonder how that is affecting their confidence.
By the metrics, I’d give the Coyotes the slight edge here. But I don’t have the confidence to back them especially when we have seen Buffalo raise their game randomly at times.
In saying that, Arizona did end a 3 game skid by beating the Knights 2-0 in Vegas so that was impressive. Can they do the same here?
Possibly. Unfortunately, Vejmelka is in net for them so easy pass.
Islanders vs Leafs:
Ooof – I have no idea about this game. Islanders scoring ability right now is immense especially considering low advanced metrics offensive stats. Leafs have a sneaky good SCGA/60 as well.
No bet here. If I were to make a play, I think it’d be the over or even the Leafs team goals over. The Leafs GA/60 and SCGA/60 are good and the Islanders offense are overperforming at the moment.
Stars vs Red Wings:
Stars come stumbling in to this one looking to try and right the ship. Detroit coming off that thumping at home to Ottawa.
Looking at the data I really don’t see a bet here. Dallas Stars defensive metrics though – don’t count the Wings outta this one. Although missing some key players will hurt Detroit.
Avalanche vs Flames:
I don’t see any bet here. Metrics lean more towards the Flames but I ain’t backing them.
Arizona vs Buffalo
Made this Buffalo -130 and that’s pretty much where it’s opened and stayed. Early lean was Arizona because of them leading in just about every statistical category. However Vejmelka starting for Arizona is a cause for pause. He started off the season solid enough, but has struggled since. Winless his last 8 straight and has given up 4 or more in six of those games. Levi gets the start for Buffalo. Below average start but has strung together his two best performances since being recalled. Small sample size though. Tage Thompson has three games under his belt, since return from injury. Goal and two assists and at least a point in each game. Minutes have increased as well. Tuch still out. I’m a little surprised the line hasn’t gone towards Buffalo slightly more. Ultimately no play, interested to watch how each team performs though.
Maybe Keller to score for Arizona +195.
Skinner +140 or Cozens +290 maybe for Buffalo.
Toronto vs New York Islanders
I made this one Toronto-135 on the road and got that one correct when the lines opened. Would lean towards Toronto but no real value. Lean has a small move towards Islanders, which also makes sense. No real feel on this game but could potentially look towards a Toronto team total over. First game of a back to back for Toronto, though as they play the Rangers tomorrow as well.
Detroit vs Dallas
I made Dallas -160 at home. This was one I was furthest off on as Dallas opened -205. Now up to Dallas -215 and higher. Makes a little bit of sense though with who’s out for Detroit. No Larkin, Compher and I’m assuming Perron, who will likely be suspended soon. Detroit still has guys that can score. Debrincat, Kane, Raymond, Copp, Veleno, Walman, Seider, Gostisbehere. But that is three of the current top six goal scorers on the team.
I was looking to play a Dallas team total over, if Husso was in net for Detroit. But the Red Wings will go with Reimer here. His playing time has declined since they’ve given Lyon a chance. Reimer’s performed solid enough when called upon, but small sample.
Oettinger for Dallas. Has had three poor performances in a row. Had an average month of November and a poor start to December. 6-7-1, .892 Save Percentage, and 3.21 GAA in that span, after a hot month of October to start the season. Has performed better on the road up to this point for whatever reason. I expect this all to get corrected eventually but hard to lay the current price with confidence even if Dallas does win tonight. Hintz was full participant at practice following an illness and is expected to go. So it looks like Dallas will be fully healthy for this one.
Calgary vs Colorado
I made my projection Colorado -180 here at home. It opened -185 so I was also in line with that. Since, it’s dropped to about Colorado -175. Still not too far off.
Calgary going with Vladar with Markstrom out on IR. He did post a 3-1-1 record for November. Buts his Goals Against and Save Percentages weren’t actually impressive. Gave up 3 goals in 21 minutes in his lone game of December, which was a loss to Minnesota. I was looking to a Colorado Over Team Total.
Calgary closed out November strong, winning three of their last four vs solid opponents ( the only loss was to this Colorado team). However they’ve seemed to regress a bit going 1-3 now to open up December.
Colorado has also had a poor December kick off winning just one of their five games played. It’s hard to imagine they lose three games straight at home as well.
Gerogiev stats have not been too impressive as of late so it’s hard to have confidence in him. However, I still think he’s a solid overall goalie. And he’s been finding ways to win despite not performing at his best. His home splits are better than his road ones as well.
Some other notes on tonight’s games. All four road teams Arizona, Toronto, Detroit, and Calgary play a game tomorrow as well. All four of those back to backs will also be on the road.
Usually I would jump on Detroit now up to +180. With the players out and my recent track record I’m a little hesitant to do so.
I also would look at some team total overs. A Buffalo and Colorado OVER 2.5 Two team Parlay pays out at -104. We do have some lower totals on todays games with three of the four games set at 6 currently. I’m not really sure why, and that has me a little hesitant to do that.
My Plays
Two Team Parlay -104
Buffalo OVER 2.5 Team Total (-240)
and
Colorado OVER 2.5 Team Total (-260)
Detroit +180 half unit
Detroit-1.5 +400 quarter unit
Colorado to Win First Period +150 (three way no push)
Colorado -175
To Score
Colorado Mackinnon +140
Colorado Toews +600
Colorado O’Connor +500
While hesitant to make the plays and not real confident in them coming thru, I recognize that these are higher risk and may backfire. That being said I like the odds I’m getting. They are heavily Colorado and Detroit dependent though so losing one likely means losing them all.